| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a digital resurrection of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here. Man, what a difference a year makes: At last year’s Super Bowl, Temu spent an ungodly amount of money to brainwash us into thinking we could all “shop like a billionaire” in a marketplace that mainly sells tchotchkes. This year? I doubt Temu spends a single penny on the Big Game. Sure, I could be wrong, but why on earth would the direct-from-China shopping site want to give away $15 million worth of coupons to a country that just rendered its entire business model useless? In ending the “de minimis” loophole, which allowed Americans to skip import duties on packages under $800, US President Donald Trump has dealt a crushing blow to the likes of Temu, Shein and TikTok Shop. Those croissant lamps, dolphin bathmats, toddler clothes and seafood boils [1] are about to get a lot more pricey, so if you haven’t kept to your New Year’s resolution of steering clear of fast fashion, now’s a wise time to start. The story is a bit more nuanced for US retailers. Although Trump’s tariffs on China took effect after midnight on Tuesday, panicked warnings to “shop now” while you still can are probably overblown: “While the 10% increase on Chinese imports into the US is unhelpful for American companies, it will be much more manageable than the 60% previously floated,” Andrea Felsted writes. “Some price increases will inevitably be passed on to consumers, but for most products, these should be relatively contained.” Not everything comes with a “Made in China” sticker anymore. US reliance on Chinese manufacturing has shrunk significantly over the past decade, and the companies that have diversified their production processes into Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India and Indonesia should weather the tariff storm just fine. Still, Andrea says sophisticated items such as jackets, electronics, toys and makeup — 80% of Elf Beauty’s supply chain is still in China — are difficult to replicate elsewhere. Perhaps that’s why Beijing isn’t willing to cave to Trump’s demands. “Compared to 2018, China may feel it can handle the heat better,” Shuli Ren writes. “Exports to the US account for only about 15% of the total, versus 19% at the onset of Trump’s first trade war.” At the same time, Shuli says President Xi Jinping has his hands full with a real estate meltdown, a currency crisis and a TikTok-sized tech pothole. Plus, he knows that Trump has the upper hand since America’s economic position is a lot stronger than China’s. “The question now is whether Xi has a full trade war game plan mapped out,” she writes. I guess the Super Bowl will give us a clue. Bonus Trade War Reading - Trump’s tariffs are even worse than I imagined. — Bill Dudley
- Winners of Trump’s first trade war may be losers this time around. — Daniel Moss
- It’s almost like Mexico and Canada knew Trump was bluffing. — John Authers
- All this trade blackmail will backfire on the US. — Bloomberg’s editorial board
Here’s an existential question to ask yourself on a Tuesday commute home: “Would you chat with a digitized version of a deceased friend or relative if it was trained on their speech?” Parmy Olson admits she’d be tempted. “Artificial intelligence is beginning to offer a startling new proposition: the chance to keep talking to the dead,” she writes. “While only a small subset of people have tried so-called grief tech tools so far, the technology heralds a profound and disturbing shift in how we process loss.” Parmy points to a number of number of newfangled digital grief services such as “You, Only Virtual,” “Project December” and “Super Brain” that use AI to simulate the dead. If this sounds too Black Mirror-y to you, think about how many people already use chatbots for emotional support. “Users have fallen in love with their AI companions or, in extreme cases, allegedly been driven to suicide. Others have tried speaking to digital simulations of their older selves to help plan for their future, with more than 60,000 people now using one such tool called Future You,” Parmy writes. Would future me think this is all a horrible, no good, very bad idea? I don’t need AI to know the answer. Bonus AI Reading: - DeepSeek’s breakthroughs are far too big for the US to ban. — Catherine Thorbecke
- From the telescope to the telegraph to AI, hedge funds have always subsidized discoveries. — Marc Rubinstein
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