Does that mean they’re ready for all that’s been going on? Not exactly. The study found that two in five executives feel unprepared for this latest round of market shocks, despite the previous five years characterized by market shocks: the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chain issues, war in Ukraine and the Middle East and high inflation. The balance of executives’ outlook toward market stability has also shifted this year. In North America, just 29% are optimists—a drop of 6% from 2024—while 19% are pessimists—an increase of 4% from last year.

Business leaders’ financial mettle has been tested vigorously over the last few days with a raft of announcements about tariffs. On Friday, President Trump said he was enacting his first set of tariffs, which were to go into effect today: 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on China. Global markets dropped, and leaders went into negotiating mode. By the end of the day Monday, tariffs on Mexico and Canada were postponed for 30 days—Mexico promised to deploy 10,000 Mexican soldiers to the border to prevent drug trafficking, and Canada is spending $1.3 billion on a joint task force designed to combat fentanyl, organized crime and money laundering. China’s tariffs are beginning as planned, with the Asian nation placing retaliatory 15% tariffs on several American-made goods, as well as U.S. companies. 

This type of news is difficult to keep up with, let alone use to forecast your business plans. And while many companies prepared for potential tariffs on China last year, steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada weren’t in many companies’ viewfinders. Forbes senior contributor Michael Lynch writes that how Trump appears to be using tariffs so far—as a threat unless other countries do something the United States wants—makes it especially difficult for U.S. businesses. The tariffs are largely unrelated to business outcomes. 

Even without the open question of tariffs, the U.S. economy is in a volatile situation right now, as quick decisions have far reverberations. Stephan Liozu, chief value officer at financial software company Zilliant, says that companies can do much better if CFOs have a handle on pricing and can make quick changes to respond to the larger economic situation. An excerpt from our conversation is later in this newsletter.

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Until next time.

But tariffs are far from the only decision of the last week that’s shaped the economic picture. Last week the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided to hold interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5%. It was the first meeting since July at which rates were not cut. In the announcement, the committee noted unemployment “has stabilized at a low level” and “inflation remains somewhat elevated.” Trump responded to the Fed’s decision with a Truth Social post saying the body “has done a terrible job on Bank Regulation. But Forbes senior contributor Simon Moore notes that tariffs tend to be paid for by consumers and U.S. companies in terms of higher prices, potentially increasing inflation—and therefore lowering the chances of additional rate cuts.

Inflation and economic stagnation are persisting. Commerce Department data released on Friday showed that inflation remained sticky, with the personal consumption expenditures index at 2.6% in December. GDP only rose 2.3% in the fourth quarter, slower than expected.

In his first week in office, Trump signed an order to create a working group on cryptocurrency, potentially creating a national digital asset stockpile. Trump has been interested in cryptocurrency throughout his campaign, with his family creating the World Liberty Financial crypto venture last year, and $TRUMP and $MELANIA meme coins issued right before the inauguration. Former Forbes staffer Steven Ehrlich talked to former chair of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Timothy Massad about Trump’s crypto ventures. Massad said it’s good that the administration is focusing on digital assets and is hopeful it will lead to a framework encouraging responsible development of the tech, but he sees no need for a strategic crypto reserve.

In the last week, organized labor had earned some big wins. Costco reached a last-minute tentative contract agreement with about 18,000 employees in the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union, averting a strike that would have started over the weekend, affecting more than 50 Costco locations nationwide, writes Forbes senior contributor Pamela Danziger. Employees at a Philadelphia Whole Foods location also voted last week to join the United Food and Commercial Workers union, Danziger writes. The next step is for the union to negotiate a contract with the grocery chain’s owner, Amazon, which has just one unionized warehouse under its flagship business.