Cheers to a fantastic weekend on the horizon, ForbesBLK. Jabari here. A quick reminder to keep April 2025 open as we return to Atlanta for our third annual ForbesBLK Summit. I look forward to connecting with you again at this year’s event. More information is coming soon. Speaking of the ForbesBLK Summit, every year, I like to seek out various individuals to get their thoughts and business outlooks for the year. I even use the insight to help curate summit panels. This time was unique because of the window between administrations as President Biden exits and we enter President Trump 2.0. The two conversations that stood out were: Dr. Royce Burnett, the Dean of the Earl G. Graves School of Business and Management at Morgan State University. And Joseph Briggs, an economist who co-leads Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research team. I asked both individuals their outlook, starting with a business-like theme of the year. It was the tale of two worlds: Macroeconomics vs. Microeconomics. “We are ready,” Burnett says. “Tailwinds probably Trump tariffs,” adds Briggs, using the same title as Goldman Sachs 2025 macroeconomics outlook. I won’t bore you with all the details. But let’s start with the macro view from Briggs, who predicts in 2025, your money will produce more spending power. That’s because inflation should cool, which means grocery prices will decrease, helping households spending power. “From the typical working-class worker’s perspective,” Briggs says, “the thing that is going to matter the most for their experience is household income and income growth. How much money is flowing into your wallet? We have a pretty healthy projection for 2.5% real income growth this year.” Briggs adds a tight labor market will continue to drive wage gains. Overall, Briggs says the U.S. economy should feel more like January 2020, right before the pandemic. On the housing front, prices will stay elevated mainly due to supply shortages and interest rates. However, renters can relax a bit as prices are likely to stabilize. And as it turns out, the $1.1 trillion credit card debt Americans have racked up isn’t as bad as you may think. That’s because the average person can afford to borrow and pay it back. I did ask Briggs to scare me a bit. What can cause that positive outlook to turn miserable? Trump’s threat of 10% tariffs for nearly everything, he says. Burnett’s outlook was different and filled with “disruption” and “uncertainties,” like the fear that Trump 2.0 will dismantle the Department of Education. “I don’t think it’s going to go away,” Burnett explains, “but there certainly may be some reconstruction of it.” There are also concerns about rising healthcare and childcare costs for low-income families. A $75 billion annual savings disparity remains for Black families. States and cities are under financial pressure and could cut vital programs. On Wednesday, Maryland Governor Wes Moore even proposed $2 billion in spending cuts and called for tax hikes in his 2026 budget proposal.
Burnett and I only touched briefly on the national debt, which has surpassed $36 trillion. Asked about his opinion on the $1 trillion credit card debt, Burnett blamed a lack of financial awareness. “Two reasons why you’d have this tremendous credit card debt,” Burnett says. “Do we not have the money to pay our rent? Do we not have the money to buy food that would cause an increase in your credit card debt? But the other one is this discretionary spending. Do we need to go out and buy the latest Xbox or whatever? I think what has to happen with credit card debt is people really have to understand the ramifications of having those huge numbers of dollars on a credit card where you end up paying nothing but the interest.” Again, Macroeconomics vs. Microeconomics. After Monday’s inauguration, we’ll have a clearer picture of where the next wave of problems will surface and where future opportunities will exist. “We are ready,” Burnett says. “We already trained ourselves to deal with change. We’ve already trained ourselves to deal with efficiency and effectiveness. We’ve already trained ourselves to gather the data and then turn it into information. It’s just a different view of the same problem.”
My one interesting read: In case you missed last week's newsletter, throughout 2025 I'll be ending this space with an article recommendation. A fascinating long-read that generates dialogue and ideas. And to personalize it, I'll respond only through DMs on LinkedIn.
This week's recommendation explores how Finland is preparing the next generation with financial literacy and food, writes Richard Milne of the Financial Times.
Give it a read, and let me know your thoughts. |