Hi, China Watchers. Today we look at the looming Supreme Court decision on TikTok, parse the China priorities of Trump’s foreign policy nominees and lay out the stakes in the upcoming Lunar Snake Year. And we profile a book that argues Chinese citizens are embracing “notions of democracy.”

Let’s get to it. — Phelim.

What the Hill has to say on TikTok’s chances

Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

Time’s up for TikTok in the U.S. on Sunday. That’s unless the Supreme Court — which is weighing if legislation to block it violates a constitutional right to freedom of speech — decides this week to stay the ban.

On Capitol Hill there is a lot of gaming out of scenarios — with partisan splits about the potential national security risks of the Chinese-owned app and predictions about what the executive branch may do come Monday when President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Some lawmakers are even looking beyond TikTok at the potential perils of other Chinese-owned social media platforms.

The court may decide to leave this one to Congress. Supreme Court justices weren’t impressed with the company’s arguments on Friday. Chief Justice John Roberts summed up the concerns of several of his colleagues by accusing TikTok’s lawyers of ignoring that the overriding motivation for the law to remove the app from U.S. screens was “Chinese manipulation of the content and acquisition and harvesting of the content.”

Some lawmakers on both sides of the aisle say they don’t expect the justices to rescue TikTok.

“The court’s going to weigh in and not stop [Tiktok’s shutdown]. said Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.).

“I don’t see what course of reasoning the Supreme Court could use to throw out the law,” said Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), a member of the House Select Committee on China.

But the incoming president is likely to take it into his own hands. Trump, who submitted an amicus brief to the court last month in support of ByteDance’s argument, Trump wants the court to delay TikTok’s phase-out so he can negotiate a solution that won’t involve shutting down the app. If that fails Trump is considering an executive order to allow TikTok to continue operations for up to 90 days while he tries to broker a deal to save it, per the Washington Post. TikTok also has an ally in Trump’s attorney general nominee Pam Bondi if the Senate confirms her. Bondi declined to say Wednesday whether she would enforce the law if the Supreme Court throws out TikTok’s appeal and the app still belongs to ByteDance on Sunday. POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein has the full story here.

Some China hawks on the Hill are lining up with Trump. At least one GOP lawmaker thinks Trump’s efforts to buy TikTok time to find a new buyer is worth a shot. Trump may “forge this deal of the century to break TikTok free from Chinese Communist Party control — he’s a world class negotiator and the right man for this task,” said Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), chair of the House Select Committee on China.

“Lots of rumored buyers,” Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) told POLITICO’s Anthony Adragna. That included Trump confidant Elon Musk, but he’s yet to seal a deal. (Elon didn’t respond to a request for comment).

Others are saying even a few days more of China-owned TikTok is too many.

“Each day that passes is another day the CCP can continue to access Americans’ sensitive personal data via ByteDance, which makes it a tremendous concern,” said Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), ranking member of the House Select Committee on China.

China is crying foul at all of it. Efforts to push TikTok out of the U.S. are “abusing the reason of national security … which is not fair or just at all,” said Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu.

And there are growing warnings from security analysts and lawmakers alike that the U.S. isn’t looking closely enough at other Chinese data-collection efforts.

There are other Chinese social media apps available in the U.S. that pose data privacy risks similar to TikTok’s. They include WeChat, a messaging platform owned by the Beijing-based tech firm TenCent Holdings Ltd. (which the Pentagon placed on its list of Chinese military firms last week). “WeChat stands out” for its role as a data vacuum and surveillance tool that poses a threat to its 19 million users in the U.S., said Yaqiu Wang, research director for China, Hong Kong and Taiwan at the nonprofit research and advocacy group Freedom House.

The Red Note risk. Lawmakers are also expressing horror as throngs of frustrated young people, angry at a looming ban of TikTok, are moving to other Chinese-owned apps like Red Note and Lemon8, which led downloads in the U.S. Apple App Store this week, POLITICO’s Christine Mui and Anthony Adragna write in.

“I’m concerned that Americans are flocking to a number of adversary-owned social media platforms,” said Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), vice chair of the Intelligence Committee. It’s unclear how durable the rise of apps like Red Note and Lemon8 will be — especially if there’s some eleventh hour relief for TikTok before the ban. But their popularity underscores how Beijing “will continue to find other ways to gather data and impact the United States … and you’re not going to have a one-size-fits all piece of legislation that covers every instance because the Chinese are pretty nefarious,” said Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.).

Rubio, Waltz outline China policy priorities

Two of Trump’s senior Cabinet picks, Secretary of State nominee Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and national security adviser appointee Mike Waltz, provided clues this week about how they’ll approach Beijing.

Rubio — who is expected to be easily confirmed — told lawmakers in his Senate hearing for the job Wednesday that the U.S. needs to sharpen its game in outcompeting China for influence in parts of the world where Beijing already has a foothold.

Beijing is “promoting conspiracy theories internally in other countries that undermine us and our standing, whether it’s in Africa, and increasingly in the western hemisphere as well, and one of the best ways to combat that is to be present, to be there, to show what we do and to brag about what we do,” Rubio said.

That will require a “mature and prudent conversation” between the country’s leaders, suggesting that Rubio won’t seek to shut down the links that the Biden administration has established with China over the past two years. “It is in their interest, our interest, in the interest of the world, for two great powers to be able to communicate,” Rubio said. Rubio pledged to intervene if confirmed to protect a group of 43 Uyghur Muslims who are in immigration detention in Thailand and at risk of deportation back to China. And he slammed Beijing’s efforts to isolate Taiwan internationally and urged moves to divert supply chains away from China.

Waltz talked up his China policy ideas at a United States Institute of Peace event Tuesday. He focused on the need for the Trump administration to continue to foster a united front among Indo-Pacific countries to offset China’s growing economic, diplomatic and military footprint in the region.

The administration needs to “continue to reinforce those partnerships and those alliances … with a shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific,” Waltz said.

AUKUS, the Quad, and the two trilaterals — with Japan and South Korea and Japan and the Philippines, respectively — were at the top of his list. Waltz also wants to redouble efforts to “porcupine Taiwan” by clearing the twenty billion dollar backlog of outstanding U.S. weaponry deliveries to the island and divert key supply chains away from China. And attention, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi — Waltz sees U.S.-India ties “as a critical partnership in the future” as the U.S. navigates strategic competition with Beijing.

TRANSLATING WASHINGTON

— INAUGURATION WATCH — WAITING FOR WANG YI: Will Wang Yi or won’t he? It’s an open question who China’s leader Xi Jinping will pick to attend Trump’s inauguration. Xi apparently turned down Trump’s invitation last month but the Financial Times reported last week that possible substitutes include Vice President Han Zheng or Foreign Minister Wang. Han has a largely symbolic role in the Chinese leadership structure, but Wang’s attendance would allow for him to segue post-inauguration into talks with Trump’s foreign policy team. Those meetings could — for better or worse — determine the tenor of U.S.-China ties at the administration’s outset.

— PARTISAN WOES BESET TAIWAN’S INAUGURATION DELEGATION: Taiwan’s plan to dispatch a bipartisan group of lawmakers led by Taiwan’s legislative speaker and opposition KMT politician, Han Kuo-yu, to attend Trump’s inauguration on Monday isn’t playing so well at home.

“Because of domestic politics President Lai [Ching-te] has not given his full blessing to the delegation,” a person familiar with the trip planning — and granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters — told China Watcher. Lai’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party is in a bitter standoff with the KMT in the country’s legislature — where the opposition party holds the majority — over KMT moves to enact legal amendments that will make it more difficult for voters to oust lawmakers seen as unfit for office.

That has made planning difficult for the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington (the island’s diplomatic outpost in DC) which usually organizes a whirl of meetings for delegation members at the State Department and on Capitol Hill. “There’s not even much clarity on who they will meet in town — no one has received an invitation yet to host the group,” the person said. That confusion could undermine the delegation’s mission for a charm offensive to counteract Trump’s skeptical views of U.S. ties to the self-governing island.

“It is not TECRO’s practice to respond to comments made by unknown sources, although it’s worth noting that it was President Lai who asked Speaker Han to lead a cross-party legislative delegation to attend the inauguration,” TECRO said in a statement.

— BIDEN RENEWS HONG KONGERS DEPORTATION PROTECTIONS: President Joe Biden extended deportation protections on Wednesday to thousands of Hong Kong citizens in the U.S. who have fled repression at home until February 2027. “Offering safe haven for Hong Kong residents who have been deprived of their guaranteed freedoms in Hong Kong furthers United States’ interests in the region,” the White House said in a statement. The moratorium on such deportations — which Biden first put in place in 2021 — was set to expire next month and there were concerns among Hong Kong pro-democracy activists about whether the incoming Trump administration would extend it. The extension is a response to “Beijing and Hong Kong authorities’ continued and repeated attacks on the protected rights and freedoms cherished by people in Hong Kong,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement.

— COMMERCE SEEKS TECHNOLOGY EXPORT CONTROLS: The Commerce Department wants to impose export restrictions on technology that could allow “adversary nations” including China to weaponize biotechnology. The idea is to disrupt efforts “to exploit the combination of biotechnology with other enabling technologies for asymmetric military advantage” according to an agency statement on Wednesday.

China’s People’s Liberation Army is working with domestic biotechnology firms to develop biotech for battlefield use, according to a report by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank out the same day. Those partnerships include efforts “to enhance Chinese soldiers’ physical and cognitive abilities,” the report said. Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu declined to comment.

MCCAUL: RUSSIA’S UPGRADING CHINA’S SUB FLEET: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the newly departed chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is warning that Russia shared technology and know-how with China to help Beijing upgrade its fleet of submarines, POLITICO’s Robbie Gramer writes in. “China is helping Russia with other technologies, but we know that Russia has better sophistication with the submarines,” McCaul said at an event on Tuesday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They are providing the propulsion and the acoustics necessary to enhance their submarine operations.”

McCaul spoke alongside Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) in support of AUKUS, the U.S. nuclear submarine and technology pact with the United Kingdom and Australia to counter China’s growing military clout in the Indo-Pacific. McCaul cited Russia and China’s increasing cooperation on submarine tech as a reason why the United States should remove remaining roadblocks from sharing nuclear submarine technology with its new AUKUS pals. “Ironically, these are the very technologies … currently being excluded on the list” of those available to export to AUKUS partners, McCaul said.

TRANSLATING EUROPE

— EU PREPS OUTBOUND INVESTMENT SCREENING: While efforts by U.S. lawmakers to regulate outbound investment to China have sputtered, the European Commission is moving forward with its own plan, POLITICO’s Camille Gijs writes in. The commission released its much-delayed recommendation to EU countries on oversight of outbound investments in three priority sectors Wednesday. The commission wants EU capitals to screen their countries’ corporate investments in semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. The recommendation aims to prevent those technologies from falling into the hands of rivals including China and Russia. “The assessment of EU outbound investment in key technology areas will allow us to have a clearer picture of potential threats we face,” EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič said in a statement.

— COSTA, XI TEASE EU-CHINA SUMMIT: The European Union is considering an E.U.-China summit in May in a bid to soothe ties with Beijing early in Trump’s second term as U.S. president. The summit proposal emerged from an introductory call on Tuesday between António Costa, who took office in December as president of the European Council, and China’s leader Xi Jinping. The two agreed that “the 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties could be a good opportunity for a successful EU-China Summit later in the year,” said an EU official, who was granted anonymity as they were not authorized to speak on the record. Camille has the full story here.

HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE

— TAIPEI’S FAVORITE LITHUANIAN: Taiwan’s government awarded Lithuania’s former Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis — who stepped down in November — its highest civilian honor Tuesday in recognition for his support for Taiwan during his tenure. Landsbergis earned his Order of Brilliant Star with Grand Cordon due to “his belief that freedom-loving people should look out for each other,” Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te said in an X post Tuesday. Landsbergis infuriated Beijing by leading Lithuania’s moves to allow the self-governing island to use the word “Taiwan” in the name of its representative office — which implies country-status —rather than “Taipei.”

— BEIJING BULLISH ON BIDEN: China’s Foreign Ministry had kind words for President Biden in response to a question about his final foreign policy speech Monday. Despite some “ups and downs” (likely an oblique reference to the 2023 Chinese spy balloon incident), U.S.-China ties “have remained stable on the whole” under Biden, ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said Tuesday. Guo praised the creation of “over 20 mechanisms of communication” between Beijing and Washington during Biden’s watch that “achieved outcomes in some areas.”

— CHINESE ‘MONSTER SHIP’ MADDENS MANILA: The Philippine government has demanded that Beijing withdraw its massive 541 foot China Coast Guard vessel from Philippine waters adjacent to the disputed Scarborough Shoal. Philippine authorities say the deployment of the ship — roughly double the size of Philippine Coast Guard vessels — aims to intimidate. “We don’t want to normalize this kind of behavior. It is an escalation and provocative,” Philippine National Security Council assistant director-general Jonathan Malaya told reporters Tuesday.

Beijing isn’t bending. Manila should “immediately stop all infringement activities, provocations and false accusations” about China’s activities in the South China Sea, the foreign ministry’s Guo said Tuesday in response to a question about the ship.

TRANSLATING THE LUNAR YEAR OF THE SNAKE

Image courtesy of USPS

Wednesday marks the start of the lunar Year of the Snake, the sixth of the Chinese zodiac’s 12 animal symbols. With President-elect Trump taking office next week with a Cabinet heavy with China hawks, astrologists say the snake’s “double-edged” nature means a year of “wisdom and danger.” China Watcher tapped the expertise of MASTER TSAI’s online Chinese Fortune Calendar 2025 to plot the fortunes of key power brokers in U.S.-China relations according to their birth year.

China’s leader Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi are both snakes (1953). That may help curb their aggressive incursions into Philippine waters of the South China Sea because this is a year for snakes to “turn enemies into friends, share benefits, and create wealth together.” And despite Xi’s vow earlier this month to pursue so-called “reunification” with Taiwan, this year offers snakes the option to resolve long standing disputes (or rethink possible invasion plans!) “to avoid wasting time, effort, and money.” To offset the physical toll of diplomatic banquets, Xi and Wang should be mindful of their “stomach and digestive system” and “avoid sweets.”

President-elect Trump (1946) was born under the sign of the dog. And with just four days until he returns to the White House, the zodiac outlook that dogs will enjoy “a prosperous relocation” looks spot on. But the financial returns from tariffs that Trump has threatened to impose on Chinese imports may be fleeting. A dog in a snake year “easily gathers wealth but spends it quickly.” Trump will need to bring his best game to any possible negotiations with Xi because snakes and dogs “are almost evenly matched” in confrontations. It gets worse – “the snake is cunning and good at using power.” That could skew the risk-reward ratio of a possible Trump effort to broker a “grand bargain” addressing key U.S.-China tensions with Beijing.

Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio (1971) was born under the sign of the pig. Senate confirmation will set him up for “wealth, fame and fortune” that pigs can expect from career shifts this year. Rubio’s pig status puts him on a collision course with snakes such as his counterpart Wang Yi. Snakes are “clever and cunning, with many strategies” so Rubio should approach one-on-one’s with Wang like “working with a disliked partner for mutual benefit.”

Incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz (1974) was born under the sign of the tiger. His appointment confirms that tigers can expect a “remarkable transformation” in their careers that will render “powerful authority and influence.” But that might not protect Waltz from potential blowback if the Trump administration follows through on its tough-on-China rhetoric. Tigers that have quarrels in the coming year can expect “great pressure” from their opponents with unpredictable outcomes. Rather than fighting, “it is still the best policy to reconcile with the other party as soon as possible,” Master Tsai advises. Peace in our time!

HEADLINES

Asia Times: Why China’s ice silk road has Trump up in Arctic arms

Asia Pacific Journal: Japan Focus: Trump and China: The rocky road ahead

Naval News: China suddenly building fleet of special barges suitable for Taiwan landings

Wall Street Journal: Trump’s CIA pick expected to push for bare-knuckle spy craft against China

HEADS UP

— HAINAN’S HUNT FOR CARDI B: Officials in the Hainan provincial capital of Haikou want Cardi B and Travis Scott to give concerts in the city’s Wuyuan River Stadium, per the South China Morning Post. The stadium attracted the rapper Ye (formerly known as Kanye West) to give two sellout shows in September. Neither artist responded to requests for comment. Cardi B has already been courting Chinese fans by opening accounts on Chinese social media platforms including Douyin and Weibo. Beijing leans toward foreign artists with no history of political messaging after the Icelandic singer Bjork ended a concert in Shanghai in 2008 by shouting “Tibet, Tibet!” in an apparent gesture of support for a region under severe Chinese repression.

One Book, Three Questions

Image courtesy of Noah Arlow

The Book: Everyday Democracy: Civil Society, Youth, and the Struggle Against Authoritarian Culture in China

The Author: Anthony Spires is an associate professor of contemporary Chinese studies at the University of Melbourne’s Centre for Contemporary Chinese Studies

Responses have been edited for length and clarity.

What is the most important takeaway from this book?

Once the seeds of an idea are planted, they can grow even in the seemingly most hostile soil.

Notions of democracy and equality, sown over a century ago in China and spread by the Communist Party over the past 70-plus years, have taken on a life of their own. Everyday people, and especially the newest generation of Chinese citizens, are finding their own ways to make those concepts meaningful.

What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?

How democratic values, as ideals that people aspire to, can inspire the search for democratic practices. This is the case even in places we often assume are incredibly hostile to such exploration and growth.

China has a long history of grassroots democratic-leaning organizations and their participants falling victim to a hostile ruling Chinese Communist Party obsessed with “regime stability” — what hope is there that this dynamic can change?

This dynamic will likely only change when the party leadership is compelled to listen to the demands of a younger generation. Although that may seem like a farfetched prospect, the party depends on the willingness and ability of about 100 million members to implement its policies.

Many youths and people at the lower levels of Chinese society simply want better solutions to their everyday problems and some say in making the rules that govern their lives. As more young people join the party and a new generation comes to the fore, we can expect that they will seek to have their voices heard and pursue new ways of doing things.

Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com.

Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, Anthony Adragna, Christine Mui, Josh Gerstein, Robbie Gramer, Camille Gijs and digital producers Emma Cordover and Giulia Poloni.

China Watcher Wants You!!!

Do you have tips? An inside track on the incoming Trump administration’s China policy? Comments on this week’s newsletter? Email me at pkine@politico.com.

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