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| By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Robbie Gramer | |
Syrian rebel groups appear to have completely routed the army of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad in their lightning advance on Aleppo over the weekend. | Omar Haj Kadour/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Phelim Kine, Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric A lightning fast rebel advance in Syria spells bad news for Syrian President BASHAR AL-ASSAD. But the Biden administration is making clear it’s not necessarily all good news for the West, either. State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said at a press briefing today that “when it comes to the process inside Syria, and the path forward for Syria, we want to see a de-escalatory path, and we want to see a political process or a political path forward on Lebanon now.” Syrian rebel groups appear to have completely routed the army of Assad in their lightning advance on Aleppo over the weekend. On the face of it, the U.S. urging de-escalation when anti-Assad groups have the advantage seems like a strange tack to take. Assad, after all, is a key ally of Russia and Iran and responsible for widespread atrocities against Syrian civilians in his country’s yearslong civil war. But the primary rebel group responsible for Assad’s latest defeat, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is a U.S. designated terrorist organization and former affiliate of al Qaeda. “We have real concerns about the designs and objectives of that organization,” national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told CNN’s KASIE HUNT on Sunday. “At the same time, of course, we don't cry over the fact that the Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure.”
Officials and analysts have credited the Syrian rebels’ advance to the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah, its primary proxy militant group, at the hands of Israel following months of fighting. Russia, which also backed Assad throughout Syria’s devastating civil war, also finds itself weakened with badly stretched resources amid its war in Ukraine. The Syrian conflict itself has become a hotbed of proxy powers, with the United States, Turkey, Iran and Russia all involved.
It’s unclear how the offensive will play out. These new developments could strengthen some proxy powers’ position at the expense of others, or destabilize Assad’s regime or just trigger a new prolonged round of conflict where no side gains a real advantage. And if the Syrian opposition continues gaining ground into January, it’s even less clear how the Trump administration would respond. President-elect DONALD TRUMP infamously described Syria as “sand and death” when he defended his decision to pull U.S. troops out of the country. Some of his top officials hold competing views on Syria. Trump’s pick to be DIrector of National Intelligence, former Rep. TULSI GABBARD, previously said Assad is not an enemy of the United States. But Trump’s picks to be secretary of State and national security adviser, Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) and Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.), have been skeptics of U.S. withdrawals from Syria and have called for more muscular U.S. responses to thwart the return of terror groups like ISIS. The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | LEBANON CEASE-FIRE TEETERS: Hezbollah launched mortar shells into Israel and Israel is considering launching a drone strike in response, further testing the barely week-old cease-fire deal in Lebanon. As Haaretz reports, the two mortar shells fell in open areas in Mount Dov. They could count as a violation of the cease-fire terms, which ordered fighting to immediately cease on Nov. 27. But both Israel and Hezbollah are accusing the other of breaching the cease-fire first.
Hezbollah argued the shelling was in response to "repeated Israeli violations" since the cease-fire began. Israel has conducted airstrikes and operations against Hezbollah since Nov. 27, but argued those actions were in response to Hezbollah not withdrawing from southern Lebanon pursuant to the terms of the agreement.
Miller said that the Biden administration “obviously anticipated that there might be violations” and that the U.S. and France are reviewing alleged breaches. “If we do see violations of the cease-fire, we'll go to the parties and tell them to knock it off. We want to see the cease-fire hold. We want to see it be successful,” Miller added. TRUMP’S MIDEAST WARNING: Trump issued an apparent warning to Hamas in a post on Truth Social on Monday, though he didn’t refer to the Palestinian militant group directly. “Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East,” he said. Trump warned that those responsible “will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States” but didn’t elaborate on what that meant.
BIDEN’S AFRICA TOUR: President JOE BIDEN landed in Luanda, Angola as he made good on his pledge to visit the continent before the end of his term in office. Earlier today, Biden met with the island nation of Cabo Verde’s president, ULISSES CORREIA E SILVA, while Air Force One refueled on its way to the main destination of the trip — Angola. The leaders discussed the burgeoning U.S.-Cabo Verde relationship, U.N. reform, the war in Ukraine and the large Cabo Verdean diaspora in the United States. He’s expected to meet with Angolan President JOÃO MANUEL GONÇALVES LOURENÇO on Tuesday. He’ll also visit the Lobito Corridor project site and deliver remarks at a museum dedicated to slavery. The trip, intended to flex a major G7 effort to thwart China’s rising economic influence on the continent, seems poised to be overshadowed by Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter. Biden has been barraged by reporters with questions about the pardon, which was signed just moments before he left for Angola. SPOTTED AT MAR-A-LAGO: MARGO MARTIN, a spokesperson for Trump, posted a picture on X Sunday night showing Trump dining with SARA NETANYAHU, wife of Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU at his Palm Beach golf club. It is unclear what the two discussed at Trump International Golf Club, but the picture indicates a strong desire from the Netanyahus to keep warm ties with the president-elect as Israel’s military operations in Gaza continue. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130
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BOULOS WHO? Former officials aren’t impressed with Trump’s familial pick to be his new senior adviser on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs. Trump announced Sunday that MASSAD BOULOS, father of TIFFANY TRUMP’s husband, will serve as his senior adviser on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs. But that pick isn’t landing well with long-time policy hands. Former U.S. Ambassador to Bahrain J. ADAM ERELI told NatSec Daily the selection of Boulos is “yet another example of the recurring pattern of grift, graft and greed that characterizes every organization with which Donald Trump associates himself.” Ereli added that Boulous “will be but one more target for influence peddlers and opportunists vying for Donald Trump’s favor in pursuit of personal or political advantage.” There are also concerns Boulos may clash with others tapped for Trump’s team. Long-time Middle East peace negotiator AARON DAVID MILLER, wrote on X that “Trump plans to empower at least four individuals with potentially overlapping responsibilities on Middle East,” noting that Rubio, special envoy STEVE WITKOFF and Trump’s pick to be U.S. ambassador to Israel, former Arkansas Gov. MIKE HUCKABEE, are all ostensibly working on charting regional policy. Miller, who worked for both Democrats and Republicans, added that son-in-law JARED KUSHNER could play a role in potentially brokering a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Boulos, a Lebanese-American businessperson, campaigned for Trump in Arab American communities in Michigan and at one point had served as an intermediary between Trump and Palestinian President MAHMOUD ABBAS. Trump hailed Boulos in a social media post as “a dealmaker, and an unwavering supporter of PEACE in the Middle East.” Read: MICHAEL SCHAFFER, POLITICO: No background checks, no problem?
| | | |   | | | | | TROUBLES IN CHIPS WORLD: Intel Chief Executive Officer PAT GELSINGER stepped down today, as the American chip manufacturer struggles to regain its footing in the market for the critical technologies. The internal chaos at one of the largest U.S. software companies could further throttle implementation of the Biden administration’s marquee 2022 CHIPS and Science Act and signal lagging progress towards shoring U.S. supply chains from threats posed by adversaries such as Russia and China. Intel was one of the largest beneficiaries of grants under the bill, receiving an $8.5 billion grant in March to support the construction and expansion of its domestic chip manufacturing facilities. Gelsinger was tasked with turning around the company’s fortunes after it lost ground to other competitors on AI and semiconductor chips, but during his tenure, it became clear the company had fallen behind despite billions of dollars in government spending to support domestic chip manufacturing as competitors like Nvidia soared.
| | HURRICANE HEGSETH ON THE HILL: Congress is heading back this week, and the Senate is about to face a new flurry of questions about Trump’s pick for Defense secretary, Fox News host PETE HEGSETH. Hegseth is currently meeting with Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.). It’s one of a string of Hill meetings between senators and Hegseth this week as Hegseth seeks to lock in support from Senate Republicans. There’s likely to be a lot on the agenda in these meetings. On Sunday, the New Yorker’s JANE MAYER reported that Hegseth, in his role as president of the group Concerned Veterans for America, an organization backed by the Koch brothers which voices skepticism about U.S. interventions abroad, faced scrutiny for alleged sexual misconduct and financial improprieties. It also followed a story from The New York Times’ SHARON LAFRANIERE and JULIE TATE about a 2018 email from Hegseth’s mother accusing him of mistreating women. And it adds to the litany of PR problems his nomination has encountered, including his dearth of Pentagon experience, a 2017 rape allegation he denies and never resulted in charges, his outspoken opposition to women serving in combat roles, anti-Muslim rhetoric and his calls to fire “woke” military leaders. At least one Senate Democrat hopes the reports will move Republican colleagues like Sens. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa), CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa) and TED CRUZ (R-Texas), all of whom sponsored bills to address sexual assault in the military, to sink the nomination. “I would hope that the Republicans who led on MST — military sexual trauma — raise some red flags on this, I think it's a real problem to have someone who has this record,” Sen. TAMMY DUCKWORTH (D-Ill.) told our own JOE GOULD. “My hope is that my colleagues live, especially those who work so hard to fix MST issues in the military, live up to their past very important work on the issue — and that they understand that this is about running a 3 million personnel organization with a budget of over $900 billion, and we want someone who's qualified to run it.”
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PRISONER SWAP CONCERNS: Former Canadian diplomat MICHAEL KOVRIG has some concerns about the State Department’s move to downgrade its travel warning for China as part of last week’s prisoner swap agreement that brought home three U.S. citizens imprisoned in China, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. Kovrig — who along with fellow Canadian MICHAEL SPAVOR spent nearly three years behind bars in China as a pawn in a Chinese hostage diplomacy strategy — said that the easing in the travel warning from level three “reconsider travel” to a level two “exercise increased caution” was “a reasonable thing to give — and the U.S. can always raise it again later,” But State’s justification for that warning downgrade — that there are no more arbitrarily detained Americans in China — was “a bit eyebrow-raising for me,” Kovrig said.
That may have been ill-advised unless Beijing provided “assurances that other American citizens would not be arbitrarily detained in return” for that advisory change, he added. And the eased travel advisory neglects the fact that Beijing is wrongfully detaining citizens of countries that are U.S. partners and allies. “There may not be any other arbitrarily detained Americans, but there are certainly Canadian and Japanese citizens still being held in such conditions. What about them?” Kovrig asked.
| | — Trump unveiled another familial diplomatic pick over the weekend. The president-elect announced Saturday that his son-in law Jared’s father, real estate mogul CHARLES KUSHNER, is his pick to be the next U.S. ambassador to France. Kushner was convicted in federal court on charges of illegal campaign contributions, tax evasion and witness tampering, though Trump pardoned him in 2020. — VICTORIA NULAND is now a senior adviser in Covington’s public policy practice and global problem solving group. She is a former acting deputy secretary of State and a veteran of the Foreign Service. — ROMAN NAPOLI started today as chief financial officer of the U.S. Agency for Global Media. He most recently was budget director and deputy assistant administrator at the U.S. Agency for International Development. — Washington Office is adding DANIEL FATA as senior adviser and director of strategic services, MELODY NEIL as an adviser and strategic tech liaison and SELINA HAYES as an adviser. Fata previously worked for Lockheed Martin and the Defense Department. Neil is a former staffer for theHouse Appropriations Committee who has also focused on the tech sector. Hayes is CEO/President of Hayes Group International.
| | — ELISABETH BRAW, POLITICO: Finland’s preparedness isn’t exactly good for business — MICHAEL SOBOLIK, Washington Examiner: Congress prepares action on China investment — ANDREW DAY, Responsible Statecraft: Ukraine’s best hope for peace looks a lot like Donald Trump
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— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Addressing Maduro's oil lifeline in the wake of a stolen election — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: How the Trump administration can reform the foreign service — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: Book discussion on "Suppressing Dissent: Shrinking Civic Space, Transnational Repression and Palestine-Israel" — Georgetown University's Center for Australian, New Zealand, and Pacific Studies, 10 a.m.: Book discussion on "On Xi Jinping: How Xi's Marxist Nationalism is Shaping China and the World" with Australian Ambassador to the United States KEVIN RUDD — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 2 p.m.: Book discussion on "Putin's Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine." — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: Book discussion on "New Answers to Old Questions: Myanmar Before and After the 2021 Coup d'Etat." — Hudson Institute, 3 p.m.: Moldova's Euro-Atlantic future — Henry L. Stimson Center, 3 p.m.: Discussion on "In Competition, Crisis, and Conflict: Building America's Warfighting Navy" with Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI. — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3:30 p.m.: Protecting intellectual property for national security — Atlantic Council, 5 p.m.: The future of Ukraine Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who has launched a new offensive to weaken our grip on power. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is mobilizing his proxy forces to defend us.
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