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Nov 22, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Mickey Djuric and Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. It’s Friday!

Let’s get to it:

→ The Liberals and the NDP find another common cause.

→ POLITICO takes on the Halifax International Security Forum.

→ Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) tells us, “If everyone had the policies of Trudeau, there would be no NATO.”

THE FIRST THING


DEAL OR NO DEAL — The NDP is running for duct tape to repair their fractured deal with the Liberals — at least for the time being.

Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND threw a Hail Mary Thursday and announced a two-month GST break on things like toys, Christmas trees, groceries and alcohol. Oh yeah, they’re also cutting people C$250 checks next year.

— The Globe headline: Trudeau unveils $6.28B in new spending on two-month GST break, stimulus cheques.

The Liberal government has been trying to win back voters after slumping in the polls for more than a year amid cost-of-living frustrations.

The announcement was enough for NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH to dust off his talking point about Trudeau cowering to New Democrat demands. In the past week, Singh promised to permanently remove GST from essentials and monthly bills if he becomes PM.

— Feels familiar: Back in the days of the Liberal-NDP supply and confidence agreement, it was common for Singh to campaign on ideas New Democrats knew the Liberals would implement. That included the National School Food Program and “grocery rebate” checks.

OG Santa: Former Conservative Leader ERIN O’TOOLE. During the pandemic in 2021, he campaigned on a holiday GST break as a way to coax consumers back to restaurants and stores. Liberals shot down the idea that they’re now running with.

Play back the tapes: In 2021, Liberals argued the GST holiday would result in revenue loss from government coffers, and alleged that Conservatives would make it up by cutting child care funding.

Unfreezing Parliament: The NDP will help Liberals temporarily end the Conservative-fueled privilege debate in the House of Commons that has stalled government work and spending. They'll team up to pass a bill with the new tax breaks before MPs head out for the holidays.

The NDP is also likely to vote in favor of Freeland’s Fall Economic Statement (whenever that comes). Playbook learned that the GST/HST holiday will feature in that statement. The NDP’s support helps ensure Liberals can cruise ‘til Christmas — and even deeper into January until the House returns.

— "A break on the GST and a cheque for $250 doesn't restore economic stability," AARON WHERRY of CBC News writes this morning. "But maybe it buys the Liberals a little more room to be heard when they try to talk about the future."

— And DON BRAID in the Calgary Herald: "This shameless, hilariously cheesy GST cut is so predictably Trudeau."

— Final take: “Let’s face it,” Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE said Thursday. “The NDP-Liberal coalition is back together.”

 

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HALLWAY CONVERSATION


CONVERSATION STARTER — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU can expect an earful if he makes it to Montreal this weekend for the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. Canada is hosting the gathering, which serves as a link between NATO and the parliaments of its 32 members.

Head of the U.S. delegation, Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio), did not hold back during a conversation with Playbook about Canada's NATO defense spending commitment.

Among the adjectives used: arrogance, freeloading, cheat.

This week, Trudeau insisted his government has a "concrete" track to spend 2 percent of Canada’s GDP on defense by 2032 with investments in submarines and NORAD and deeper engagement with NATO.

“The world is not what it was 10 years ago, and Canada is going to need to make sure we continue to step up,” he told reporters at the G20 summit in Brazil.

More from our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity.

How do you feel about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s defense policies?

The Trudeau policies are the freeloading policies of a NATO of decay. If everyone had the policies of Trudeau, there would be no NATO.

The Trudeau leadership has been of incredible arrogance that it has believed it is above the need to understand that the threats to democracy is authoritarianism. And the only preservation we could have for democracy is having a strong defense. Trudeau’s policies have outsourced it. They have freeloaded on the backs of the American taxpayer.

When do you think Canada will face consequences?

The Trump administration has begun the process of saying, NATO has begun the process of saying, if you knowingly and willingly agree to a financial commitment to NATO that you walk away from, you ought not to be equal to everyone else because you’re being disingenuous.

You’re being dishonest saying that you’re going to meet a commitment that you don’t. You are cheating everyone else and that has to be addressed to some extent by everyone else who’s not cheating.

Do you know what that would look like?

No, but I think the dialogue needs to happen because countries are sending other nations the bill. They’re also cheating their own countries because if you don’t invest in your own country, your own industry, in your own capabilities, in your own people, you are robbing your future.

What do you make of Canada hosting the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Montreal and the Halifax International Security Forum despite not meeting its spending targets?

Canada needs to stop being a bystander and the host and [start] being an initiator and a strong member at the table.

→ Pro subscribers can read the full conversation.

— In related news: US allies prepare for the unknown with Trump’s pick for NATO envoy.

 

Democracy is facing a multi-front attack on nearly every continent. At the Halifax International Security Forum, senior military officers and thought leaders will have to choose whether to stand together against these challenges or go down the path of division. Follow the proceedings here.

 
 
Talk of the town

SAFE SPACE — Welcome to Western alliance week in Halifax.

As the world prepares for Trump 2.0, the annual confab that promotes the rule of law and democratic solidarity welcomes military brass and diplomats from allied nations, a hearty congressional delegation direct from Washington, and a coterie of leading thinkers.

Think of the Halifax International Security Forum as part-schmoozefest, part-teambuilding — a maritime meetup for proud defenders of the democratic order against aggressive autocracies gaining momentum here, there and everywhere.

— Our town: POLITICO is sending a crew. NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY flew in from Ottawa, alongside D.C. colleagues LUIZA CH. SAVAGE, HEIDI VOGT, PAUL MCCLEARY, ELI STOKOLS, ROBBIE GRAMER and JACK DETSCH.

We'll be bopping in and around the hallways of the Westin Nova Scotian, hounding newsmakers for quotable quotes about their view of an uncertain world.

Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the Greater Toronto Area, where he will meet with students and kids and make an announcement on the National School Food Program.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Montreal, where she will meet with leaders from the energy sector in response to the U.S. election.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE headlines a party fundraiser at a private residence in Toronto's cushy Rosedale neighborhood.

— Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET and NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH have not released their itineraries.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY is Nova Scotia campaigning in the provincial election. She will attend Parliament virtually.

 

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WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN


Up: Talk of the USMCA, minus Mexico.

Down: ELON MUSK’s X. (See below.)

Talk of the town

PASADENA, CALIFORNIA - NOVEMBER 14: In this photo illustration, the Bluesky logo is displayed on a cell phone on November 14, 2024 in Pasadena, California. The social media app Bluesky has seen its user base increase by 1.25 million since the U.S. Presidential elections as some people leave rival X, which is owned by Elon Musk. (Photo Illustration by Mario
 Tama/Getty Images)

Bluesky, nothing but Bluesky? | Getty Images

XODUS — Ottawa politicians are among the mass migration to Bluesky, an alternative app to X that really popped off after the U.S. presidential election.

— Stats: Bluesky boasts 20 million users as of this week, up from 6 million in August.

— Who’s there: Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET and NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH were among the first federal leaders to join. There are no plans yet for Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU to join, but his office told us: “We will continue to engage on a range of existing and emerging social media platforms and connect with Canadians where they are at.”

— What is it? Bluesky has a similar look and feel as old Twitter, but users control their own algorithms — a departure from ELON MUSK’s X, where users complain of bots spreading disinformation, online harassment, ads, accounts peddling cryptocurrency scams, along with the overall conservative tone.

— Your MP starter pack: Heritage Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE; Liberal MPs TALEEB NOORMOHAMED, RYAN TURNBULL, CHRIS BITTLE, JULIE DABRUSIN and ADAM VAN KOEVERDEN; and NDP MPs BONITA ZARRILLO and BLAKE DESJARLAIS.

Their migration is good news for any journalists eager to quit X, but clinging on because it remains an integral platform to catch political announcements. You can also find a growing number of members of the Parliamentary Press Gallery there, including Playbook’s SUE ALLAN and MICKEY DJURIC.

— Who should we follow? Drop us your handle .

 

Want to know what's really happening with Congress's make-or-break spending fights? Get daily insider analysis of Hill negotiations, funding deadlines, and breaking developments—free in your inbox with Inside Congress. Subscribe now.

 
 
MEDIA ROOM

Activists wait to rally to protest.

Activists wait to rally to protest the Keystone XL Pipeline in 2017. President-elect Donald Trump's renewed interest in the pipeline faces a sharply different reality now than existed than when he first entered office. | Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

DONALD TRUMP is looking to revive the Keystone XL oil pipeline on his first day back in the White House, POLITICO’s BEN LEFEBVRE reports.

— POLITICO’s KYLE CHENEY explains why the implosion of MATT GAETZ’s nomination for attorney general reveals the president-elect isn’t all-powerful despite the Republican trifecta in government. And here are 5 things you need to know about PAM BONDI, the former attorney general of Florida, Trump's new pick to become top law enforcement official in the U.S.

— The Logic’s DAVID REEVELY reports on an Abacus Data poll that suggests “Trump’s dislike of Trudeau a big liability.”

ANTOINE TRÉPANIER of the National Post reports on the Bloc’s full-court press on the Senate to save its supply management bill.

Writing in Policy magazine, Dalhousie prof LORI TURNBULL asks: Is TIM HOUSTON the new DOUG FORD?

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to Conservative MP MICHAEL CHONG, who shares the day with ex-MPs GEOFF REGAN, ROBERT-FALCON OUELLETTE and JACQUES SAADA. Greetings also go to the Hotel Association of Canada's TEJAH-MAE DAVIS.

Saturday: Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI, former Health Minister JANE PHILPOTT, McMillan Vantage senior consultant NIVITHA JEYAKUMAR, FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE d-comm AUDREY CHAMPOUX, and Lime senior manager of government relations RACHEL RAPPAPORT.

Sunday: Ontario Sen. ROSEMARY MOODIE.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send deets.

Spotted: Greenpeace activists, arrested outside Stornoway. … Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY hanging out with Sen. RICK SCOTT.

Noted: Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE writing to the federal NDP leader saying he’s partially to blame for “driving up the cost of everything” by supporting Trudeau’s carbon price.

Movers and shakers: JON MCKENZIE, president and CEO of Cenovus Energy, has been appointed chair of the board of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. TERRY ANDERSON, president and CEO of ARC Resources, is the new vice-chair.

PROZONE

Flyers are handed out at a demonstration for climate finance at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

This year’s global climate talks are all about the money needed to prevent the effects of global warming from accelerating. | AP

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from SUE ALLAN and MICKEY DJURIC: Keystone, COP and Trump 2.0.

From POLITICO’s KARL MATHIESEN and ZIA WEISE in Baku: Last year, the world pledged to move away from fossil fuels. This year, not so much.

In other Pro headlines:

Trudeau suggests Canada could sacrifice Mexico to save trade with US.

Trump once shunned Project 2025 as ‘ridiculous.’ Now he's staffing up with them.

Why Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ team looks headed for smooth confirmation.

Trump’s new bestie could boost minerals.

Exxon inks major deal to supply lithium for EV batteries.

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY


2 p.m. (3 p.m. AST): Defense Minister BILL BLAIR will deliver opening remarks at the Halifax International Security Forum.

TRIVIA


Thursday’s answer: The New York Times headline on Nov. 22, 1953: “Piltdown Man Hoax Is Exposed."

Props to DARRYL DAMUDE, DOUG RICE, RAY DEL BIANCO, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, WILL SHELLING, JOHN ECKER and MARCEL MARCOTTE. 

Friday’s question: The Royal Agricultural Winter Fair first opened its gates in Toronto on this date in 1922. What was the price of admission?

Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing Monday's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and SUE ALLAN. 

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.