| I’m Jarrell Dillard, an economics reporter in Washington, DC. Today we’re looking at the outlook for the US housing market. Send us feedback and tips to ecodaily@bloomberg.net or get in touch on X via @economics. And if you aren’t yet signed up to receive this newsletter, you can do so here. US mortgage rates will likely stay higher for longer now that Trump has been elected. Which means Americans who were waiting for rates to drop to buy a home may delay their plans and the housing market might stay stuck. Three days after the US election, Redfin Corp. raised its projection for the average mortgage rate to 6.8% in 2025. That’s roughly where the current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands. Others expect rates to remain near 7% next year, including Moody Analytics and Capital Economics. Lower mortgage rates could have re-energized the housing market, which has been dampened by the elevated rates, record home prices and a chronic lack of inventory. But there’s a lot of uncertainty around Trump’s policies on tariffs, immigration and taxes — which is affecting market expectations for inflation (higher) and economic growth (lower). Since US mortgage rates closely follow yields on 10-year Treasuries, they’ve been on the rise. Economists say Trump’s proposed universal tariff of as much as 20% and an even higher 60% tariff on Chinese goods could drive inflation higher as businesses would likely pass that cost on to consumers. Meanwhile Trump’s promise of mass deportations could hurt sectors heavily dependent on immigrant workers, including construction, which is already facing labor shortages. A smaller construction workforce could make it more difficult to increase housing supply and drive home prices up. There’s a silver lining. Trump’s election and the GOP sweep in Congress has homebuilders sanguine about the prospect of looser regulation and more construction. And with the uncertainty about the election now over, some would-be buyers and sellers are back. Erica Diaz, an agent and owner of HomeVest Realty in Florida, said she has seen a significant increase in activity post-election. Prospective buyers are hoping to get a lower rate through a rate buydown or by refinancing later. As families sit down to enjoy Thanksgiving dinner next Thursday, the feast will cost less this year though prices remain well up on where they were before the historic post-Covid cost-of-living surge, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s 39th annual survey. “The classic feast for 10 will run you $58.08, down 5% from last year. However, this is still 19% higher than five years ago,” economists Samantha Ayoub and Bernt Nelson from the federation wrote in a release Wednesday. Seven items, including turkey, saw prices drop, while four were higher — including the essentials of cubed stuffing and fresh cranberries. There were some regional variations: dinner will be at least 15% costlier this year in the West, while other regions are all down. Even those seeing price declines may not be overjoyed: “Consumers are exhausted from years of inflation, and it will take more than the past two years’ improvements to ease the pain,” the federation said. | 
