This week’s earnings reports from Walmart and Target are exacerbating the divergence in the retailers’ stocks in 2024. Walmart shares have surged 66% this year and are on track to post their biggest annual gain since 1999. The stock notched a fresh record this week after the company’s strong earnings report. Meanwhile, Target shares are down 15%, driven in large part by a plunge on Wednesday after the retailer slashed its profit outlook. Target’s bleak report is stoking concern that it’s losing ground to Walmart as well as Amazon.com. Citi and Deutsche Bank were among firms that downgraded their ratings on Target after earnings, citing signs of deteriorating market share and worries around how much the company will need to invest to compete with its larger rivals. Given Walmart’s market-share gains have come primarily from wealthier consumers, “Target seems to be the one most at risk of losing additional share,” Citi analyst Paul Lejuez wrote. Walmart has revamped stores and added high-end products, and it’s built out its e-commerce operations. Analysts are also positive on the growth of Walmart’s higher-margin ancillary businesses, including digital advertising and its third-party marketplace. Retail earnings continue today with results from Gap and Ross Stores. Discount chains Dollar Tree and Dollar General, also victims of Walmart’s success, report in early December. —Katrina Compoli |