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The imminent return of Donald Trump has some world leaders worried and others buoyant. Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India is firmly in the latter camp.

Like the departing Joe Biden, the US President-elect clearly sees Modi as a partner and a potential regional counterweight to China. Trump’s second term is likely to mean a deepening of a relationship that Biden has described as one of the “most consequential” in the world.

At the same time, it’s sure to give Modi more breathing room when it comes to foreign policy — especially in areas that have irked Washington in the past, like India’s longstanding relationship with Russia.

Evidence of that is already emerging. The Kremlin this week confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to visit India for the first time since his invasion of Ukraine.

While Modi has continued trips to Russia — India’s top arms and energy supplier — since the war began in early 2022, his willingness to host Putin is a sign he feels less concerned about American finger-wagging.

WATCH: Putin greets Modi at his residence of Novo-Ogaryovo in the Moscow region in July.

When Modi visited Russia in July, the US Ambassador in New Delhi, Eric Garcetti, pointedly noted that “in times of conflict, there is no such thing as strategic autonomy.”

Modi paid a visit to Ukraine a short while later, an indication he wasn’t looking to take sides. With the return of Trump — widely seen as less hostile to the Russian leader — Modi will likely feel he has a freer hand.

A potential new wrinkle is the US indictment yesterday of Gautam Adani on charges of helping drive a $250 million bribery scheme. It’s no secret that India’s most powerful businessman has benefitted from Modi’s nation-building push.

Whether Trump sees Adani’s troubles as an opportunity to exert leverage over the Indian leader remains to be seen.— Dan Strumpf

WATCH: The Wilson Center’s Michael Kugelman and Nirmalya Kumar of the Lee Kong Chian Business School discuss how Trump’s relationship with Modi may affect the Adani case. Source: Bloomberg TV

Ukraine said that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile at the central
 city of Dnipro, in what would be another major escalation of hostilities. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov referred questions about the launch to the Defense Ministry. If confirmed, it would appear to be the first-ever use of an ICBM in combat, sending a worrying signal to Kyiv’s allies after Ukraine deployed US and UK long-range missiles against Russia this week for the first time.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to boost a cooperation fund to finance infrastructure projects in fellow BRICS member Brazil during a state visit that underscored President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s shift away from the US. Back in China, sources say that Premier Li Qiang is expected to meet with top foreign executives on Monday to discuss trade and supply chain issues ahead of Trump’s return to the White House, while a US advocacy group reported that the country saw a dramatic rise in protests in the third quarter.

Xi and Lula in Brasilia yesterday. Photographer: Ton Molina/Bloomberg

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s cabinet is expected to approve a $140 billion economic stimulus package tomorrow to address a range of challenges from inflation to wage growth, following his election pledges to ease a cost-of-living crunch. It will mark an important test of Ishiba’s ability to proceed with policy now that his ruling coalition only has a minority in parliament.

Romania’s ultra-nationalist party leader, whose popularity has propelled him to No. 2 in the polls ahead of Sunday’s presidential election, said he would halt military aid to Ukraine if he secures the top job. George Simion, the leader of the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, has seen a surge in support for his anti-establishment rhetoric, populist programs and designs for reunification with neighboring Moldova.

Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris is hoping to capitalize on a strong economy to secure another five years in power in a general election on Nov. 29. Harris brought the vote forward from a March deadline after opinion polls showed a bump in support for the main parties in his centrist coalition, while the opposition is looking to stage an upset by tapping into voter anger over sky-high housing costs.

Vietnam and Malaysia agreed to elevate ties and explore closer cooperation to maintain peace in the South China Sea, after a complaint from Malaysia raised tensions over the contested waters.

Global tech firms could face fines of as much as A$50 million ($32.5 million) if they fail to enforce the Australian government’s new social media ban for children under the age of 16, under legislation set to be introduced today.

Mali’s military leaders fired Prime Minister Choguel Maiga and his entire government, days after the premier criticized the junta’s failure to implement a transition to civilian rule.

A draft COP29 deal to scale up international climate finance to at least $1 trillion angered delegates on all sides over a lack of detail about where the money would come from, suggesting talks are likely to run beyond tomorrow’s scheduled summit end and well into the weekend.

Trump’s picks to lead a task force to review government spending, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, could be in for a fight with labor unions after they said they’ll push for eliminating work-from-home for the nation’s more than 2 million federal workers.

Making federal employees come to the office five days a week “would result in a wave of voluntary terminations that we welcome,” they wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed yesterday.

“American taxpayers shouldn’t pay them for the Covid-era privilege of staying home,” added the pair, who will head the new Department of Government Efficiency to advise the White House on budget and spending issues.

Musk has panned work-from-home policies, telling CNBC in 2023 that tech workers should “get off the goddamn moral high horse.”

One person to watch today: Biden will welcome the Boston Celtics, the winners of this year’s NBA basketball championship, to the White House.

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About 10% of Africa is embroiled in conflict, with fighting having spread and intensified over the past three years, according to a new report by risk advisory firm Verisk Maplecroft. As well as a civil war in Sudan, insecurity has worsened across the west of the Sahel region after a series of coups. “All indicators point towards a further intensification of violence in 2025,” said Hugo Brennan, Verisk Maplecroft’s research director.

Since August, former senator Ruangkrai Leekitwattana has filed at least 20 petitions against Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, for everything from holding shares in a golf course to posing inappropriately in a photo shoot. Ruangkrai is one of about a dozen petitioners who routinely target political leaders and parties. They’re seen as part of the country’s conservative royalist establishment, which is seeking to maintain its influence after last year’s election ushered in a civilian government following a decade of rule by military-backed administrations.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Photographer: Andre Malerba/Bloomberg

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