| Welcome to our guide to the energy and commodities markets powering the global economy. Today, reporter Weilun Soon takes a look at the Southeast Asian oil hub helping funnel sanctioned Iranian crude to China. US President-elect Donald Trump wants to ratchet up sanctions pressure on Iran in order to curb oil revenue and thus the regime’s ability to fund proxy militias. A flotilla of aging oil tankers gathered east of Malaysia — transferring billions of dollars of sanctioned crude to China — is a timely reminder that this is easier said than done. Bloomberg News analyzed almost five years of satellite images and ship-tracking data, interviewed maritime security and oil experts, and then sailed out to the South China Sea to draw up a picture of what is, today, the largest dark fleet cluster anywhere in the world. In the first nine months of this year, our investigation shows at least 350 million barrels moved through this region on the way to China. Most of that oil was Iranian.
This trade is not illegal, given countries in the area don’t necessarily recognize US sanctions — but it unquestionably threatens coastal economies and livelihoods. Accidents have already happened.  Dark fleet tankers Win Win and Titan in waters east of peninsular Malaysia last month. Photographer: Ore Huiying/Bloomberg Legitimate shipowners, meanwhile, fret over the risks to their fleet from vast numbers of uninsured ships transiting through busy waterways like this one, just past the Malacca Strait, with their transponders not infrequently switched off. Why are these vessels ferrying sanctioned oil in plain sight, despite the risks? In part, it’s simple economics. Iran needs buyers, and China’s private refiners need cheap crude. It’s also geography: This patch of water is conveniently placed, calm all year round and just out of territorial waters, making law enforcement difficult. And then there’s geopolitics. China doesn’t recognize US sanctions on Iran. Southeast Asian states pride themselves on being able to balance Chinese and Western interests and demands. But the vital point is that this trade is extraordinarily resilient, relying not on easy-to-sanction banks and large traders but on middlemen, rapidly evaporating shell companies and, ultimately, on China’s plethora of small, private refiners. The incoming administration in Washington can dial up persuasive conversations with coastal states and with China. It can crack down more frequently, too. But the economics, geography and geopolitics that keep this armada afloat aren’t changing anytime soon. --Weilun Soon, Bloomberg News Platinum’s role as a catalyst for a number of hydrogen technologies will result in demand increasing 10-fold if the world becomes serious about fighting climate change. That could offset losses coming from the declining use of combustion engines, according to research by BloombergNEF. Demand for the precious metal from sectors exposed to the energy transition will increase from just 477,000 troy ounces this year to more than 5.2 million troy ounces by 2050, according to BNEF’s Net Zero Scenario. Oil’s longstanding geopolitical risk premium has evaporated as traders interpret Trump’s foreign policy agenda as bearish for demand — and prices. Natural gas prices in Britain this month have commanded the biggest premium over the European benchmark since the end of 2021, underscoring the nation’s vulnerability during cold weather in the absence of large storage sites. Tokyo Gas Co.’s shares jumped as much as 15% after Elliott Investment Management said it held a major stake in the company and may make “important proposals” to the utility. The surge was the most on an intraday basis since 1987. Russian refined fuel exports rebounded to a nine-month high in the first half of November, with a ramp-up in refining activity as seasonal maintenance winds down. Gold will rally to $2,900 an ounce by the end of next year, according to UBS Group AG, echoing a call from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. for further gains as central banks expand their holdings. -
Two of Trump’s big promises — mass deportations of undocumented immigrants and more restrictive trade regulations — will likely raise the cost of food for Americans, the Atlantic writes. -
Wealthy nations have long had the biggest historical responsibility for global warming and been expected take the lead in resolving the problem. China’s coal-fired economic surge is upending that dynamic, the New York Times writes. -
The world is shifting away from the “Age of Oil,” so why isn’t it close to achieving net zero targets? The International Energy Agency’s Tim Gould discusses the latest World Energy Outlook on the Columbia Energy Exchange podcast. | 
