The Morning: The final push in Ukraine?

November 20, 2024

	By German Lopez

Good morning. Today, we’re covering the escalating war in Ukraine — as well as Trump’s appointments, Gaza’s wounded and Rafael Nadal’s retirement.

A missile is launched from the ground with a fiery trail across a blue sky.

An ATACMS missile. John Hamilton/White Sands Missile Range, via Associated Press

A new phase

The war in Ukraine is escalating quickly and unpredictably. Ukraine is now using U.S.-made missiles to strike inside Russia, with President Biden’s permission. Russia has raised the threat of nuclear weapons. It has also sacrificed thousands of troops to take more territory in eastern Ukraine, achieving its largest gains in more than two years.

At the same time, an end to the war seems closer than ever. Donald Trump has promised to negotiate a truce quickly once he takes office in January. Given how much Ukraine depends on the United States, Trump could force Ukraine to accept a deal.

These things — the recent escalations and a potential end to the war — are related. As Russia and Ukraine prepare for a potential peace deal, they are working to improve their negotiating positions. That reality has kicked off a dangerous and urgent phase of the war, although one that could last only a few months.

Today’s newsletter will explain the recent events and what could come next.

Ratcheting up

The recent events in Ukraine can be summarized as a series of escalations. After Ukraine lost territory on its eastern front, it opened a northern front this past summer in the Russian region of Kursk. It grabbed Russian territory for the first time in the war, and has managed to hold the land. Russia then recruited more than 10,000 soldiers from North Korea to try to reclaim the area.

Washington saw North Korea’s involvement as a big deal. After all, Russia has warned the West against sending any of its own troops in Ukraine’s defense. Yet Russia turned around and got outside help.

In response, the United States has allowed Ukraine to fire American-made long-range missiles into Russian territory. Ukraine did so for the first time yesterday, hitting an ammunition depot.

The specific missiles, known as ATACMS, do not have the range to hit Moscow. “U.S. officials do not want to see ATACMS flying at the Kremlin,” said my colleague Julian Barnes, who covers international security. “That’s not what this is about.” Instead, Ukraine can use the missiles to weaken Russian advances and hold territory in Kursk and elsewhere.

A map of Ukraine and the surrounding region shows the territory held by Russia and the territory held by Ukraine. The map also shows the range of the ATACMS missiles into Russia.

Source: The Institute for the Study of War With American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats | By Samuel Granados and Leanne Abraham

Why are U.S. officials so cautious about how Ukraine uses these weapons? Russia’s actions yesterday offer an explanation. It declared the right to respond with a nuclear weapon to an attack by a nonnuclear nation (Ukraine, presumably) that’s supported by a nuclear-armed country (the United States). Since the beginning of the war, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has used the threat of nukes to deter Western involvement. To some extent, the threat has worked. It previously kept Americans from supplying ATACMS and fighter jets, for instance.

Putin is not actually closer to using nukes, American officials say. But the consequences of a nuclear conflict are so large — potentially world-ending — that even a tiny or slightly growing risk is alarming.

Seeking the best deal

There’s another factor behind Biden’s decision to let Ukraine strike inside Russia: the coming Trump administration.

Trump has indicated that he will not offer the same level of military support to Ukraine that Biden has. He wants to end the war as soon as possible. He will likely try to force both sides to negotiate some sort of truce, even if Ukraine doesn’t regain its territory in the process.

That means Ukraine is running out of time to improve its negotiating position. If it can hold on to parts of Kursk, maybe it can trade the area for more of its eastern territory held by Russia. In other words, Ukraine’s strength at the bargaining table depends on fending off Russian and North Korean troops in the coming months.

Russia is trying to improve its own hand, too. It has pushed farther into eastern Ukraine despite staggering losses. (As of last month, the war had left 600,000 to 700,000 Russian troops dead or wounded, Western officials estimate.) Russia continues its brutal campaign knowing that every inch of land it claims now could be kept for good.

All of this adds up to a bit of a paradox: Peace may be around the corner, but the fighting could get bloodier as both sides try to position themselves for a more favorable deal.

For more

The U.S. has closed its embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, and told employees to shelter in place, warning that Russia was planning a significant air attack.
Biden authorized the provision of some land mines to Ukraine, The Washington Post reports. Kyiv has sought the weapons — which Russia uses liberally on the front line — since the beginning of the war.
The U.S. has grown used to Russia’s threat of nuclear weapons, David Sanger writes.
Along some stretches of the front, Kyiv’s forces are outnumbered by more than six to one.

THE LATEST NEWS

Trump Appointments

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Linda McMahon Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times

Trump will tap Linda McMahon to lead the Department of Education. McMahon, a former professional wrestling executive, is a longtime Trump donor and was co-chair of his transition team.
Trump chose Mehmet Oz, the celebrity surgeon who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2022, to run the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
Howard Lutnick, chief executive of a Wall Street firm, is Trump’s pick to be commerce secretary. Lutnick has defended Trump’s plans for imposing tariffs on imports.
A hacker gained access to damaging information about Matt Gaetz, Trump’s selection for attorney general, including testimony from a woman who said that she had sex with Gaetz when she was 17.
Trump, who was found liable for sexual abuse, has named to his administration four men accused of sexual misconduct in some form. (The men all deny the accusations).
Trump seeks a Treasury secretary who can achieve possibly conflicting goals: implement tariffs and still keep the stock market booming.
Trump wants the option to appoint his choices without Senate vetting, potentially testing the Constitution. Read about the maneuver, known as “recess appointments.”

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