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I'm in your inbox a day early this week, from the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro.
There's no shortage of overt and covert flexes of might when world leaders come together.
If you're a big dog like the US or Chinese presidents, you book out whole hotels.
In Joe Biden's case, there's even been a warship patrolling the waters off Rio de Janeiro's iconic Copacabana beach while he's been in town for the G20, a meeting of the world's largest economies. It's hardly a calming sight for others to see.
Xi Jinping, too, had armoured military vehicles outside the hotel he'd taken over. And look, when your staff list reaches four figures, you're going to need space for them all to sleep.
Plus, you don't get the sense either leader plans on finding themselves waiting for other hotel patrons to finish using the lift before they get their turn.
US President Biden's looming departure from the world stage seemingly brought with it a heightened sense of the jockeying between leaders, some of whom like China's President Xi, and Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese, have spent a week in South America for summits.
The summits have had a 215 pound (97kg), fake-tanned elephant hanging over them.
While Donald Trump might have fudged his weight when he surrendered to the Fulton County Jail in Georgia last year, his threats of kicking off a trade war with China and winding back action on climate change are being treated far more seriously.
So much so that the Chinese leader found himself without any irony calling on an Australian prime minister to advocate for free trade and oppose protectionism when they met this week.
That's like asking a panda not to procreate – it's just what they do. Remember, it wasn't that long ago that Xi was imposing $20 billion in trade tariffs on... Australia.
He's certainly not the first politician to have found himself advancing something that he was opposing not that long ago but we digress.
Xi Jinping had his G20 power moves down pat
The spectre of Trump's return had Xi Jinping barnstorming his way through meetings with world leaders.
One of the joys of being a leader for life (not to mention it being another overt flex) is you can have world leaders call upon your hotel, without barely having to move an inch.
It also means Xi can always position himself in what the AFR's Phil Coorey confidently explains is the power position when world leaders meet — on the right of a photo where you don't have to reach across yourself to shake hands. Diplomacy, hey!
So was the case on the first day of the G20 summit, when Albanese headed in for his meeting with Xi mere minutes after British PM Keir Starmer had left his.
Xi sat in the room flanked by some of his most senior advisers, who in their double digits had crammed into seats alongside him.
Looking across at Albanese, Xi saw a delegation that could have squeezed into a large sedan.
These are the meetings Xi clearly prefers.
At the APEC summit of Pacific-rim nations days earlier in Lima, Peru, Xi snubbed the early group meetings of world leaders, instead opting for private one-on-one meetings with other leaders.
When he was with world leaders for group photos, he largely kept to himself, unlike India's Narrendra Modi, who looked to be Mr Everywhere in his dealings with leaders (obviously not with Justin Trudeau though given their bad blood, which can also comfortably also be filed under overt flexes).
But back to Xi.
His influence extended far beyond the conference rooms he met leaders in. From his hotel to the G20 venue, an array of people sporting Chinese flags were cheering him on.
Xi didn't just come to South America to hold speed dating meetings with up to 30 world leaders, he also came with billions in commitments, eager to win favour with nations that might have otherwise looked to the United States.
The day before the APEC summit, he met with Peru's president to open a Chinese-controlled super port just north of Lima. The port will serve as an important hub to export agricultural and mining resources from Latin America directly to China.
If Trump follows through on his threat to ignite a trade war and impose a 60 per cent import tariff on all Chinese goods, Xi is hoping that he can stitch together a coalition of free trade advocates that could push back on the US president, knowing that any action taken against China would likely have flow-ons to their own economies.
It's a message Anthony Albanese has been very happy to champion — but not because Xi Jinping was asking.
Trade = jobs and Albanese knows it
Almost every day during his trip, Albanese has repeated time and time again that one in four jobs in Australia are supported by trade, that Australia supports free and fair trade and that nations should work together, not recoil into isolationism.
Sure, the PM knows he needs to reassure some back home about why he's away when they're doing it tough with inflation still smashing family budgets.
But he's also sensing an opportunity if Trump's threats prove literal.
Albanese has used his time in South America to pitch Australia as a safe and reliable middle power, a country rich with resources below the earth and no shortage of sunshine above it. He wants the world to see Australia as an emerging clean energy superpower. And yes, in his mind that means jobs.
The PM insisted that Trump didn't feature in the formal talks he held with Xi, India's Narendra Modi and the leaders of Britain, Singapore, Brazil, Peru and the EU.
But he couldn't deny that Trump hadn't been on their minds in their informal chats.
If there is to be a void left by Trump on the world stage, both Xi and Modi want to fill it.
Gone it seems, at least for now, are the dominant roles of the Europeans on the world stage. Germany's Angela Merkel is long gone and France's Emmanuel Macron is heading for the exit.
Macron, too, was reminded he wasn't in Versailles while at the G20, having to resort to using a demountable toilet block on the last day — a scenario you couldn't imagine Xi partaking in.
In this environment it's little wonder Albanese has been on such a mission to repair relations with China (not to mention the jobs that have been lost to the trade war Australia's largest economic partner inflicted on it) and further expand a partnership with India.
He also hears the warning
But it also comes with a warning. Both Xi and Modi are growing closer to Russian president Vladimir Putin, a person unable to travel to Brazil because of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant issued against him — not that it's stopping Modi hosting Putin in New Delhi in the near future.
While the leaders at the G20 and APEC found consensus on bolstering global trade and tackling climate change, the same can't be said for the war in Ukraine.
APEC was unable to make any inroads, thanks to Russia and China, and the language from the final declaration coming from the G20 only went as far as to urge nations to be good neighbours. Having hit 1,000 days since the Russian invasion that's led to the deaths of innocent civilians, it's clear that we're not talking about Ramsay Street. These neighbours are not becoming good friends any time soon.
At the time of writing, Albanese's plane is sitting on the runway in Rio, getting ready to fly home. The PM, acutely aware that the Coalition likes to dub him Airbus Albo, was adamant he'd be back for Thursday's sitting of parliament.
As he waited to fly out, even more signs of overt power were been on display.
Joe Biden has felt something like yesterday's man at the summits.
Sure, he visited the Amazon to advocate for greater climate action and authorised Ukraine's use of US-made, long-range missiles into Russia, but it was the man who will replace him who seemed more imposing.
That Biden was the only G20 leader unable to walk up the steep red carpet to greet Brazil's president seemed to be a metaphor for his standing on the world stage. Not only did Xi walk it, he did so with a bag man in tow, making him the only leader to not make the walk alone.
But at the airport as Biden prepared to leave Brazil, he was still packing all the might of the US presidency. Securing a prime spot for his departure, the world was reminded that no matter how diminished he might be, Biden is still the leader of the free world — for the next two months, at least.
And if his authorisation of those missiles for Ukraine is anything to go by, he has no plans to be subtle on the way out. |
