Shifts in Ukraine’s Missile Use, Russian Nuclear Doctrine Mark One Thousand Days of War |
Russia updated its nuclear doctrine in a decree today, saying that Moscow could consider using its nuclear weapons in response to a large-scale conventional attack. It also said Russia would view any conventional attack backed by a nuclear-armed power as a joint attack. Russia’s shift came as its war in Ukraine passed the one-thousand-day mark; in response to the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia, Ukraine used a U.S.-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) missile against Russia for the first time, unnamed sources told the Financial Times.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the European Parliament today as the war meets new thresholds of both length and international involvement. He called on European countries to “push harder” against Russian President Vladimir Putin to coax Moscow into “meaningful negotiations” to end the war. The war also featured in yesterday’s leaders’ communiqué of the Group of Twenty (G20) summit—though with a much shorter mention than the previous year and omitting Russia entirely—which welcomed “initiatives that support a comprehensive, just, and durable peace.” (AP, Financial Times, EuroNews)
|
|
|
“The big picture [in the nuclear doctrine update] is that Russia is lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a possible conventional attack,” the University of Hamburg’s Alexander Graef tells Reuters.
“Many in [U.S. President-Elect Donald] Trump’s camp appear eager to cut off aid to Ukraine. But doing so would make likely a Russian victory that would be a major strategic setback for the United States and an embarrassment to Trump. If Trump is serious about bringing about an equitable end to the war, then Biden’s decision to extend ATACMS authority can help increase the pressure on Putin to negotiate,” CFR Senior Fellow Max Boot writes in this Expert Brief.
This CFR Special Initiative looks at the many facets of how to secure Ukraine’s future. |
| |
Dozens of Hong Kong Pro-Democracy Activists Sentenced to Jail |
A court sentenced forty-five former lawmakers and activists to four to ten years in jail for their roles in a 2020 unofficial primary election that aimed to identify and advance pro-democracy candidates for the official legislative election. The United States “strongly condemned” the sentences, a spokesperson for the consulate in Hong Kong said. The case was the largest single prosecution so far under the sweeping national security law imposed four years ago. (AP)
This Backgrounder by Lindsay Maizland and CFR’s Clara Fong details the crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong.
China/Russia: Workers wrapped up construction on an over three thousand-mile natural gas pipeline between the countries that is due to supply Shanghai by the end of the year. (SCMP) |
|
|
Delhi Environment Minister Calls Air Pollution a ‘Medical Emergency’ |
Gopal Rai appealed for the central government to authorize the use of artificial rain in the capital as air pollution levels worsened. On Monday, one air quality watchdog clocked 1,600 in Delhi on the international index for air quality; anything over three hundred is considered hazardous. (India Today, NYT)
Sri Lanka: President Anura Kumara Dissanayake named a new cabinet after his left-wing party’s sweeping victory in legislative elections, but kept the country’s prime minister and retained his personal control over the finance and defense ministries. (The Hindu, Bloomberg)
|
|
|
Middle East and North Africa |
Israel Hit a ‘Specific Component’ of Iran’s Nuclear Program in October Strike, Netanyahu Said |
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Israeli legislature yesterday that the collision occurred, but did not give further details. He added that Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon had not been blocked. (Reuters, Times of Israel)
Palestinian territories: Over one hundred trucks carrying aid into the Gaza Strip were “violently looted” over the weekend, according to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees. It said that Israel was disregarding its obligations to ensure aid safely reached Palestinians in Gaza. Israel has denied creating obstacles to aid deliveries. Only eleven trucks made it to their destination. (NYT)
For Think Global Health, Shira Efron reflects on wins and losses in humanitarian aid to Gaza after more than a year.
|
| |
U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan Visits Country for First Time Since Outbreak of War |
Tom Perriello met with Sudan’s army leader and humanitarian, government, and tribal leaders to call for an uptick in aid allowed into the country. His visit came as Russia was the sole veto on a UN Security Council resolution yesterday, quashing its chances of calling for a cease-fire and increasing aid into the country. (Reuters)
CFR expert Michelle Gavin lays out the mixed messages Washington is sending Sudan.
Senegal: The party of newly elected President Bassirou Diomaye Faye is on track to win a parliamentary majority after elections yesterday, according to local media and citizen vote counting platforms. (AP)
|
|
|
Washington Warns Turkey Against Hosting Hamas Leaders |
Washington will make clear to Ankara that “there can be no more business as usual with Hamas,” a U.S. State Department spokesperson said yesterday. He did not confirm media reports that Hamas moved its political office from Qatar to Turkey but said he was not in a position to dispute them. (Al-Monitor, Reuters)
|
|
|
Brazil, Argentina Agree to Study Potential Argentine Gas Exports |
The agreement will create a working group on the potential export of gas from Argentina’s Vaca Muerta deposits, Brazil’s energy ministry said. The deal could result in exports as high as 30 million cubic meters of gas per day by 2030. (Reuters)
U.S./Canada/Mexico: U.S. President Joe Biden met separately with the leaders of Canada and Mexico on the sidelines of the G20 summit, voicing a commitment to North American cooperation. Washington and Mexico City affirmed their commitment to tackling migration and transnational violence. (Reuters, White House)
|
| |
Trump Says He Plans to Use Military in Mass Deportations |
Donald Trump confirmed in a social media post that he plans to declare a national emergency and use military assets in a “mass deportation program.” Presidents have broad authority to declare national emergencies at their discretion. (NYT) |
| |
G20 Declaration Calls for Progress on New Climate Finance Target |
The leaders’ declaration calls for an agreement to be reached on a new collective finance target and committed to accelerating national energy transitions in line with the agreement from last year’s UN climate conference in Dubai. The G20 communiqué stopped short of explicitly reiterating the pledge made at last year’s COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels. (Climate Home News, FT)
CFR expert David M. Hart cautions that climate diplomacy comes down to watching what countries do, not what they say.
|
|
|
58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065 |
1777 F Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006 |
|
|
|
