Morning, I’m Louise Moon from Bloomberg UK’s breaking news team, bringing you up to speed on today’s top business stories.

After weeks of anticipation, lots of speculation, and even more confusion over what exactly is a “working person,” today we’ll finally get some clarity. As Rachel Reeves prepares to carry the red box from Downing Street to Parliament, we’re primed to have you covered through the day. 

The Chancellor — the first female in the 800-year history of the role — will pledge to “rebuild Britain” as she lays out about £35 billion in tax rises and spending cuts, plus a reshaped fiscal rule. Reeves is due to say that: “The only way to drive economic growth is to invest, invest, invest.”

She’s walking a tight rope: Labour want to recover from a post-election slump in support, repair finances and fund more public services. But that needs tax rises — and likely more than the party had indicated in the election.

It has been at pains to emphasise protecting “working people”. One small thing that might help as Labour brace for criticism of breaking that promise, will be last night’s news of a 6.7% rise in minimum wage next year — more than inflation. 

Here’s how the day will unfold:

• 08:30: Bloomberg TV interviews former Chancellor Philip Hammond
• 12:00: Starmer stands up for PMQs
• 12:30: Reeves delivers her budget speech in Parliament
• Follow our expert live commentary throughout via Markets Today
• Post speech: Opposition leader Rishi Sunak gives his response
• 3:15: live Q&A with our very own Lizzy Burden, Dave Goodman, John Stepek and Morwenna Coniam. Make sure to send your questions in.

What’s your take? Ping me on X, LinkedIn or drop me an email at lmoon13@bloomberg.net. Oh, and do subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted business journalism on the UK, and beyond.

Standard Chartered promised to return at least $8 billion to investors by 2026 after beating third-quarter estimates, driven by strong wealth management plus global markets. Bloomberg Intelligence says it “confirms its new strategy is bearing fruit.”

Aston Martin’s volumes in China slumped 54% so far this year, compared to last, but it still says the country has “significant long-term growth opportunities.” 

Full prices sales at Next rose far more than expected, prompting it to boost final quarter guidance and raise full-year pretax profit forecasts for the third time this fiscal year, to more than £1 billion. That’s down to cold weather arriving earlier this year — good for some, eh.

Sales in two of GSK’s key vaccines — Arexvy and Shingrix — didn’t do as well as expected, due to issues with access in the US. That took the shine off a strong profit, which was held up by sales in some HIV and asthma drugs. Shares fell 4%.

• Israel is open to a short truce in the war against Hamas in exchange for hostages.
• How the US efforts to contain China’s push for tech supremacy are faltering.
• Olympic boost papers over weaknesses as France’s economy gains momentum.

Here’s your daily snap analysis from Bloomberg UK’s Markets Today blog:

UK traders, politicians and journalists will be glued to the reaction of the pound and gilts to today’s budget (with memories of the Liz Truss experience still fresh in the mind), but the nature of markets right now means the signals could be confusing — or even misleading.

Fixed income markets, in particular, are in thrall to a host of factors outside of UK fiscal policy, with the outlook for interest rates, the US election, tensions in the Middle East, oil fluctuations and China’s efforts to stimulate its economy all causing big swings. The latter was a big theme yesterday, with hopes of more stimulus in China driving a selloff in bonds that pushed up gilt yields.

That move seems to be unwinding today in European bonds, so don’t be too surprised if we see gilts rising before the budget.

But even for the rest of the day, things could be messy. Reeves is due to speak fifteen minutes after a closely-watched US jobs report, and the exact time America also reports GDP data and releases its quarterly refunding plan. All could have major implications for global bonds, making it a lot harder to a get a completely clean read on the reaction to the budget.

Of course, if the markets loves, or hates, what it hears, that will be obvious. But its worth remembering that where UK yields end today is probably going to be about more than just what Reeves says in Parliament.

— David Goodman

Check Bloomberg UK’s Markets Today blog for updates all day.

Shell is likely to paint a similar picture to BP’s results earlier this week as the industry contends with weaker oil prices.

Analysts say its third quarter may turn out to be Shell’s weakest this year. The company has forecast continued strong performance from its natural gas and upstream unit, but expects to lose money in chemicals.

What are the chances (in percentage terms) that AI “goes bad”, according to Elon Musk in an appearance at the Saudi Arabia FII summit?

Source: FII Institute

[Yesterday’s answer: The name ‘budget’ — today’s financial statement by Rachel Reeves — derives from an old French word ‘bougette’ meaning ‘little bag’. The statement was originally taken to Parliament in a leather bag, and is now carried by the Chancellor in the red despatch box.]

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