Where Dems are spending: Democrats have long known Santa Clarita Assemblymember Pilar Schiavo, Fresno Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria and Orange County Sen. Josh Newman would be the most vulnerable lawmakers this election cycle.
All three are in tough-to-defend purple districts that forced them to the middle on some issues. Case in point:, the recent special session bill to limit gas price spikes pushed by fellow Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom. None of them voted in favor of the legislation, and Soria actually voted against it.
The party — including both state- and county-level organizations — has spent more than $1.2 million on Schiavo and Soria to defend them during the general election, according to Target Book. Democrats have put nearly $3.9 million toward protecting Newman, who is running in largely unfamiliar territory after redistricting put him into state Sen. Dave Min
’s area, Target Book found. Min is now running for Congress, leaving Newman to defend the district in an expensive media market. Newman, Schiavo and Soria aside, the party has poured more money into potentially picking up additional districts. It’s dropped more than $4.2 million on Kipp Mueller, who’s vying to take over Wilk’s seat. Democrats have also invested more than $3.8 million in
Darshana Patel, who’s trying to succeed Maienschein. And they’ve put up more than $3.4 million for Chris Duncan, who’s back for a rematch against GOP Assemblymember Laurie Davies in a district that includes pieces of San Diego and Orange counties.
“We assess each of those seats and determine what we believe it takes to win based upon the candidate we've endorsed, issues within the community and the resources that are available across a pretty diverse set of seats across the state,” California Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks told Playbook. Where the GOP is spending:
The state GOP is employing a different strategy. It’s going on defense to protect incumbents while also putting a big chunk of limited Republican dollars toward ballot measures. A Playbook analysis shows the party has spent more than $1.8 million fighting Proposition 33 and at least $1.1 million backing Proposition 36. Republicans have also spent more than $905,000 supporting Proposition 35, a Medi-Cal funding initiative Newsom is strongly against.
On the candidate side, state- and county-level organizations have spent the most money — about $1.4 million — protecting Davies, according to Target Book. The party has also contributed more than $1.1 million to protect Palm Springs-area Assemblymember Greg Wallis, who’s locked in a rematch with Democratic challenger Christy Holstege. Their 2022 race
was an insanely close one — Wallis won by just 85 votes. Republicans have spent about $1 million defending Assemblymember Josh Hoover in the Sacramento suburbs. Hoover flipped his district in 2022, and he’s being challenged by Democrat Porsche Middleton.
In terms of newcomers, the GOP has funneled more than $950,000 to Kristie Bruce-Lane, Patel’s opponent in Maienschein’s district. It’s also given more than $822,000 to Joanna Garcia-Rose, who’s trying to unseat Soria in the Central Valley. “The calculus of how each dollar is spent reflects a tailored approach to each race,” California GOP spokesperson
Ellie Hockenbury in a statement to Playbook, “but our mission remains consistent: securing victories that will help steer California back onto a path of prosperity.” IT’S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to
lholden@politico.com.
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