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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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October 29, 2024

Iran’s Next Move

Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iran over the weekend were intended to send a specific message, Tel Aviv-based New York Times Magazine Staff Writer Ronen Bergman told Fareed on Sunday’s GPS. By hitting Iran’s most-advanced air defenses, Israel hinted strongly that Israel’s firepower can overcome Iran’s highest level of protection against it, Bergman suggested. Avi Davidi, editor of The Times of Israel’s Persian edition, concurs: The weekend attacks showed that Israel would be able to strike more sensitive targets if it chose to, Davidi writes.

Several analysts have called this a measured action. Still, the threat of escalation looms.

“It seems incongruous to say that a damaging air raid by one Middle Eastern power against another might portend diminishing tensions in the region,” writes The Washington Post’s editorial board. “Yet that could—and should—be the result of Israel’s attack on Iran over the weekend.” Israel apparently heeded US counsel not to strike at Iran’s energy or nuclear infrastructure, a potential course of action thought to be more provocative, the paper notes. Ali Vaez, an Iran expert with the International Crisis Group, tells Middle East Eye’s Sondos Asem that the weekend strikes were “somewhere in the mid-range” of what Israel could have conducted.

Will Iran respond? The two sides have been locked in a tit-for-tat of strikes that dates back to April. The back-and-forth has unfolded in the midst of a war in Gaza, and now another in Lebanon, in which Israel has dealt serious blows to two Iranian allies in Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran finds itself in a weak position, with its proxies significantly debilitated and its missiles and drones not having “the expected military impact,” Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies writes in a Financial Times op-ed. “The last pillar of [Iran’s security] strategy, its nuclear programme, is more vulnerable than ever, and rushing towards the production of a bomb may precipitate the very war that Iran has been trying to avoid. Iran’s retaliatory options are narrowing. Consequently, it may look for less well-defended targets, such as US facilities and interests in the Gulf states. Growing anxiety in that part of the region is why Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others were quick to condemn the Israeli attacks and propose diplomatic off-ramps.”

At the Foundation for Defense of Democracy, Behnam Ben Taleblu notes that Iranian state media downplayed Israel’s strikes. Taleblu sees in that a potential move “to dampen expectations about an Iranian response against an adversary with clear escalation dominance.” Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s speech after the strikes left it unclear whether Iran will seek to hit back, Taleblu writes.

Iran does have another option entirely, The Economist writes: pursue a less aggressive foreign policy. As others have argued, the magazine suggests Khamenei’s longtime preference to split the difference when it comes to Tehran’s policy on US and Israel—to avoid both outright war and outright peace with these two arch-enemies of Iran—is no longer tenable. Iran did reverse its antagonism toward Saudi Arabia last year, reopening diplomatic ties that could unlock economic benefits. So a softening could be possible—even if building a nuclear bomb also looms as an option.

“It is hard to imagine Mr Khamenei talking about detente, a repudiation of his life’s work,” the magazine writes. “His successor will decide whether to continue a war of choice that has impoverished Iran for decades and now brought it under attack by an enemy state for the first time since the 1980s. That decision has never been more urgent.”

‘Uncharted Territory’

Whatever happens next, this year’s strikes between Israel and Iran have been unprecedented. The two Middle East powers have waged a so-called “shadow war” for years, but their direct confrontation is a substantial development in the region.

Analyzing the situation at the Associated Press, Adam Schreck observes, “One thing is certain: The Mideast is in uncharted territory. For decades, leaders and strategists in the region have speculated about whether and how Israel might one day openly strike Iran, just as they wondered what direct attacks by Iran, rather than by its proxy militant groups, would look like. Today, it’s a reality. Yet the playbook on either side isn’t clear, and may still be being written.”

A Hopeful Sign for US Leverage?

As The Washington Post’s editorial board noted, Israel appeared to heed US advice and pressure to avoid striking Iran’s energy or nuclear-development infrastructure. That could be a good sign for Washington and its degree of leverage over a close ally.

Since the war in Gaza began, Israel has pressed beyond US preferences. Over the weekend, Israel again underscored it strength and freedom of movement. Hokayem writes for the FT: “Israel has again proven its military superiority against its ultimate rival. It remains the only power in the region capable of pulling off this sort of thing … Some in Israel, such as the opposition leader Yair Lapid, have argued that the scale of the strike was a mistake, and that the Israelis should have hit Iran harder.”

At the Middle East Institute, Paul Salem writes that “[c]redit must be given” to the Biden administration for swaying Israel to avoid striking more aggressively. The US clearly wants this latest round of strikes to mark the end of direct escalation between Israel and Iran, Daniel DePetris writes in a Los Angeles Times op-ed. “The fact that it took Israel nearly a month to respond to Tehran’s Oct. 1 missile attack … is an indication that some honest but tough conversations between U.S. and Israeli officials occurred behind the scenes,” DePetris writes. “[President Joe] Biden made it abundantly clear early on that Washington would not support Israeli strikes on Iran’s energy or nuclear facilities, the former because it would heighten oil prices during an election year and the latter because such action could push Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei into making the decision to weaponize Tehran’s nuclear program. [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu has made it a habit to ignore Washington’s advice as it pertains to the wars in Gaza and Lebanon … But he appears to have taken Biden’s concerns seriously on Iran.”

A Deadly Numbers Game in Ukraine

Russia has been making steady gains in eastern Ukraine this year. On the most recent episode of The Economist’s The Intelligence podcast, however, Defence Editor Shashank Joshi says territory is less important than troops. Russia currently doesn’t have enough soldiers to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses, but Joshi says Ukraine’s main problem is that it may not be able to recruit enough new troops to match Russia over the long haul.

Watch Fareed’s Take

No matter who wins the 2024 presidential election, Fareed said on Sunday’s GPS, a larger shift will define US politics for decades: the rise of cultural identity over economics as a driver of votes.

How to Sleep During Election Season

It can be difficult to relax and get quality sleep during a momentous election. Anxiety is running high, and the fate of the country feels, to many, like it hangs in the balance.

If you’re struggling, writes RAND behavioral scientist Wendy M. Troxel, limiting TV and social-media exposure late at night is one remedy. Another is to participate: “If politics have you riled up, civic engagement and participation can, in fact, help,” Troxel writes. “Engaging in meaningful activities can provide a sense of purpose and control, and that too supports mental health and better sleep. Whether you volunteer, canvass, or simply engage in constructive discussions, involvement can alleviate feelings of helplessness and stress, promoting a more restful night. The flip side is also true: Getting a good night of sleep can make you a kinder, more altruistic person—something society could certainly use more of. In fact, a UC Berkeley study found that nearly 80 percent of participants reported a decreased desire to help others after a sleepless night compared with when they got a good night's sleep.”