SENATE CLASS OF 2006’S LUCK MAY BE RUNNING OUT Democratic Sens. Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey have had a lucky streak of election environments since they first came to the chamber in 2006. That luck seems to have run out.
The first elections for Tester (Mont.), Brown (Ohio) and Casey (Pa.) coincided with a Democratic midterm wave after six years of George W. Bush in the White House. In their second campaigns, their party’s presidential nominee won the popular vote by 4 percentage points. The third? Another blue wave repudiating Donald Trump. But 2024 is a different story. At best, the two parties face a neutral political environment, as evidenced by tied polling from the presidential race down to Senate contests.
That Republicans are favored to win control of the upper chamber next week is largely due to these seats — two of which are in red territory. Strong national headwinds helped Democrats win the states in 2006 and keep them in 2012 and 2018. This time, they can’t count on the general electoral mood to help matters.
If Democrats can manage to get those three reelected, they should have an easier time in the next two cycles. Only five of the 100 Senate seats are currently held by senators whose states went to the opposing party in the last presidential election, and two of the three Democratic-aligned senators in that group are up next week: Tester and Brown (the third is retiring independent Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia). The other two are GOP Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin.
A lucky streak: What makes Democrats’ 2006 class so unique is how lucky they’ve been over the past dozen-and-a-half years to survive this era of intense polarization. In 2006, Democrats flipped control of the Senate by ousting six Republican incumbents. The party still holds five of those seats. Montana is the toughest hold this cycle, with Tester — who narrowly ousted then-Sen. Conrad Burns (R-Mont.) in 2006 — trailing Republican Tim Sheehy in the polls.
Despite the fact he ran against two statewide electeds after that — then-Rep. Denny Rehberg in 2012 and Rep. Matt Rosendale in 2018 — Tester’s opposition has widely been considered weak. National Republicans maneuvered to keep Rosendale out of the race this year out of fear that Tester would beat him again.
While Tester won a nailbiter in 2006, Brown and Casey beat their GOP opponents — then-Sens. Mike DeWine and Rick Santorum, respectively — by double digits. And it’s been pretty clear sailing since then: Brown beat then-state Treasurer Josh Mandel by a significant margin in 2012. And even after Ohio’s hard turn to the right, Brown beat then-Rep. Jim Renacci in 2018, 53 percent to 47 percent. Casey has won by even larger margins: 9 points in 2012 and 13 points in 2018. This year, both he and Brown are in tighter races.
The Sixer already out: One member of that 2006 class already saw her luck run out. Then-Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) — who beat GOP incumbent Jim Talent in 2006 and then was gifted (or made her own luck, depending on your perspective) then-Rep. Todd Akin as an opponent in 2012 — was ousted in 2018 by Republican Josh Hawley, despite a strong year for Democrats. How many of her classmates will be joining her come January?
— Steve Shepard GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, Oct. 29 where we know you have polls to obsess over, but go get your Halloween candy to beat the last-minute rush.
| 
