THE BUZZ: PARTY POLITICS — California’s Legislature is almost certain to remain deep blue following next week’s election — just what shade of blue, however, is still to be decided.
We’re expecting this cycle to bring massive turnover to the Legislature, with more than a quarter of seats getting a new occupant. Democrats will continue to dominate Sacramento with supermajority margins, but we could see intraparty fractures between progressives and moderates deepen. Business interests and law enforcement groups are playing heavily in some contests, such as bitter races in the Bay Area and South Los Angeles, as well as the state’s powerful labor unions.
Finding consensus in a caucus this size has proven itself to be a struggle as the lawmakers grapple with thorny, polarizing issues like public safety and bond measures. These expensive election fights between rival Democrats will have an outsize impact on policy making and caucus dynamics. Here are five Dem-on-Dem slugfests we're keeping tabs on: 1) AD-26 (Evan Low): Patrick Ahrens versus Tara Sreekrishnan
Staffers tend to work for lawmakers whose beliefs they share. So it’s no surprise that a contest between aides to tech-friendly Assemblymember Evan Low and labor stalwart state Sen. Dave Cortese is unfolding along similar lines, with Low’s Silicon Valley area seat at stake. Uber is doubling down on Low staffer and community college trustee
Patrick Ahrens, who secured the California Democratic Party endorsement and is also winning outside support from real estate and medical industry groups. Unions and criminal justice advocates have funded a committee to boost Tara Sreekrishnan, Cortese’s deputy chief of staff and a county education official.
Both Ahrens and Sreekrishnan can point to endorsements from organized labor and support from legislative Democrats, with incumbent lawmakers placing different bets on their potential future colleagues. And a years-old egging incident (yes, you read that right) has also jolted the race. More on that below. 2) AD-50: (Eloise Reyes): Robert Garcia versus Adam Perez
This Inland Empire contest will demonstrate if one Democrat can overcome the establishment. The California Democratic Party wields a lot of clout in legislative races, bestowing endorsements that unlock resources and allow legislative leadership to weigh in. That puts school board member Robert Perez in prime position: In addition to the party nod, he has support from heavyweights like Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas
, Rep. Pete Aguilar and outgoing incumbent Eloise Gomez Reyes. Numerous Assembly Democrats have pitched in. But he’s facing a stiff challenge from fellow school board member, Democrat Adam Perez. Business and law enforcement groups have rallied behind Perez, while left-leaning interests like labor and consumer attorneys are spending against him.
3) AD-57 (Reggie Jones-Sawyer): Sade Elhawary versus Efren Martinez Of all the blue seats turning over this year, this Los Angeles district has the greatest potential for a real ideological shift. Outgoing Assemblymember Reggie Jones-Sawyer
energized criminal justice reformers and infuriated law enforcement during his tenure leading the Assembly Public Safety committee, where he turned back sentence-stiffening bills as he resisted over-incarceration. He’s been a reliable progressive vote on the Assembly floor. Law enforcement unions tried to oust Jones-Sawyer once, backing Democrat Efren Martinez.
Now Martinez is running to replace the termed-our Jones-Sawyer, securing support from law enforcement and business interests — and massive opposition from organized labor. He’s also notched endorsements from Rep. Adam Schiff and moderate state lawmakers. Progressives — and Uber — are rallying behind educator Sade Elhawary
, who’s also getting support from a coalition of unions, attorneys, and environmentalists. She also has endorsements from Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, U.S. Sen. Laphonza Butler, progressive LA electeds, and dozens of Assembly incumbents. 4) SD-35: (Steve Bradford): Laura Richardson versus Michelle Chambers
This is the most contentious and expensive same-party Senate race on the board. Business and labor interests spent millions of dollars in the primary, and both candidates carry baggage: Former Rep. Laura Richardson faced ethics scandals while in Congress, and former Compton City Council member Michelle Chambers has faced
accusations — that she denies — of misconduct. The California Democratic Party has thrown its weight behind Chambers, aligning with labor’s chosen candidate. Richardson can tout the support of Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and Rep. Maxine Waters, two former colleagues and fellow Congressional Black Caucus members.
5) SD-7 (Nancy Skinner): Jesse Arreguin versus Jovanka Beckles It was a foregone conclusion that a district encompassing Oakland and Berkeley would elect a progressive Democrat. But the race to replace state Sen. Nancy Skinner became a multimillion-dollar proxy fight during the primary, thanks in large part to the presence of California Labor Federation official Katherine Lybarger.
Real estate interests, Uber, and allies successfully elevated Berkeley Mayor Jesse Arreguin and blocked Lybarger from the primary. They did so in part by boosting far-left Richmond City Councilmember Jovanka Beckles. That matchup would seem to favor Arreguin, who has powerful endorsements and deep-pocketed supporters. But if there’s any Senate district that could elect
DSA-backed Beckles, it’s this one. GOOD MORNING. Happy Tuesday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at
lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte
. WHERE’S GAVIN? In LA for a homelessness announcement with Mayor Karen Bass. The 9 a.m. event will be livestreamed on the governor’s YouTube page.
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