| Welcome to our guide to the energy and commodities markets powering the global economy. Today, reporter Dan Murtaugh explains China’s rising electricity demand and what that means for its green goals. Meanwhile, US tax breaks are funding China’s dominance in solar. To get this newsletter in your inbox, you can sign up here. Surging Chinese power demand is raising questions about whether the booming renewables sector can keep pace and what that means for targets to cap greenhouse gas emissions. The country’s coal plants are the largest contributors to global warming, and robust electricity use is prolonging their lifespan even as the nation adds record amounts of wind and solar. Thermal generation is up 1.9% through September from a year earlier — although that would be much higher without clean energy picking up the slack. During the same period, electricity consumption increased 7.9%, the highest since the post-Covid manufacturing boom of 2021. That year, the rise in demand was matched by strong growth, but this time the electron feast comes as the country struggles with a downbeat economy. Power and growth have long been connected. Electricity usage, rail freight and bank lending comprise the Li Keqiang Index — named after a comment by the former premier that those metrics provided a more accurate reflection of the economy than reported gross domestic product figures. Demand is on track to outperform GDP for a fifth straight year. China is second only to Japan among major economies for electrification rates. Power accounted for 28% of its energy consumption in 2022, compared with 11% in 2000, as heating and transportation electrify. That puts more pressure on coal but is still good for the climate because it replaces less efficient fossil-fuel use. The danger for the climate is new demand sources such as data centers and cooling. Manufacturing of air conditioners jumped 15% in China last year after record heat in 2022, while September’s hot weather sent residential energy use surging. No one wants to deprive people of lifesaving cooling during more-frequent bouts of extreme heat. But if Chinese consumers keep guzzling electricity at this pace, it will mean the clean-energy revolution has even more work to do than previously believed. --Dan Murtaugh, Bloomberg News Dairy farmers in California are grappling with a steadily advancing outbreak of avian flu in their herds. Bird flu has been reported in more than 170 herds there since late August, with the state accounting for almost half of all US cases detected in dairy cows since the outbreak began in March. California produces the most milk in the nation. BP Plc raised the possibility its share buybacks could slow next year from the $1.75 billion quarterly pace seen in 2024 as weaker oil prices push debt higher. Shares fell. Oil recovered after tumbling the most in more than two years Monday, as the wipeout of a geopolitical premium shifted attentions back to supplies and the US election. Also, traders who piled into bullish options bets at record pace face a harsh reality. The nuclear power plant closest to the epicenter of Japan’s massive 2011 earthquake resumed operation, a major milestone in the country’s bid to revive its use of atomic energy. The UK government is considering a proposal to divvy up the power market and unleash free electricity in the windiest regions, and that’s triggering a fight between its biggest energy companies. One of the first legal challenges over corporate greenwashing kicked off in an Australian court, with an activist shareholder group claiming natural gas producer Santos Ltd. misled investors on its climate targets. - The recent surge in warming prompted fears that climate change may be accelerating beyond model projections, but a decline in how much heat Earth is gaining makes this less likely, the New Scientist reports.
- Researchers are downgrading forecasts for how much green hydrogen would be needed to reach net zero because costs remain stubbornly high, Hydrogen Insight reports. Batteries and electricity are expected to pick up the slack.
- CBS’s 60 Minutes delves into the Dark Fleet and its ability to evade sanctions and prop up Russia’s energy sector despite Western penalties.
Against the backdrop of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, Bloomberg Green convenes the foremost leaders in business, finance, policy, academia and NGOs for candid conversations focused on COP29’s core goals. Join us in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Nov. 13. Learn more. | 
