Flagship

Optimism v pessimism in US race

The two candidates’ camps in the US presidential election revealed their differing attitudes to the irreducible uncertainty in the polling. Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is increasingly “bullish,” The New York Times reported, believing she is slightly ahead in enough crucial swing states to win, despite prediction models having her opponent, former President Donald Trump, as a slight favorite. Trump’s aides, meanwhile, should be more confident: Polls have him in a better position than at this stage in either of his previous elections. But Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reported that his inner circle is skeptical, and “good news is treated with suspicion,” worrying that some factor they’re missing — such as polling error or unexpected turnout — could swing the race.

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WaPo loses subs over endorsement row

The Washington Post lost 200,000 subscribers and saw several columnists resign after its owner blocked it from endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris in the US presidential election. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, who bought the paper in 2013, said the decision was “principled,” and that the only error was making the call just before the election rather than years in advance. One former Post editor called it “spineless,” while Semafor’s Ben Smith said the decision revealed the extent to which the paper’s former anti-Trump stance was “marketing.” Last week the Los Angeles Times made a similar decision: A former editorial board member wrote in The Atlantic that while endorsements may not shift many votes, both papers were guilty of a “journalistic failure.”

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A worrying Moscow-Pyongyang tie-up

Washington urged Beijing to pressure Pyongyang over the movement of North Korean troops to Russia for potential deployment to Ukraine. The comments came as a South Korean lawmaker warned that North Korean generals may head to the front lines of the Ukraine war as part of growing defense cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, underlining concerns over a significant expansion of the conflict. The latest moves by its allies put Beijing in a tricky position, a prominent Peking University scholar noted: “Having incompetent teammates can prove more detrimental than being isolated,” he wrote recently, according to the Sinification newsletter. Still, drawing North Korea into the war points to Russia’s willingness to battle on, even as Ukraine’s European allies express weariness over the conflict.

US targets China chips again

The US finalized new curbs on China’s access to high-end chips. The restrictions are the latest step in a two-year campaign to corral Chinese tech advancements. Washington says the moves are for national security reasons, Beijing argues the US is trying to hold its rival down. The curbs have had fitful success, most analysts believe: They have restricted China’s access to the cutting-edge hardware needed to develop the most powerful AI systems in the short term, but incentivized the country to work to develop a homegrown semiconductor sector. The Biden administration has also “left loopholes that are routinely exploited,” the SemiAnalysis newsletter noted in a deep dive on the ways in which the Chinese tech giant Huawei has evaded the curbs.

Riyadh opens ‘Davos in the Desert’

Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative — a conference dubbed “Davos in the Desert” that has attracted the heads of Goldman Sachs, Citi, SoftBank, and others — opens today. The three-day meeting in Riyadh comes with the kingdom seeking to attract foreign investment to support a broad-ranging economic transformation plan, while the broader Gulf region is looking to steer clear of the fallout from the Middle East conflict. Despite tepid growth in Saudi Arabia this year, progress has been made: The share of women in employment in Saudi Arabia has more than doubled since 2017, thanks to a drive to diversify and modernize the country’s economy.

Semafor’s journalists are on the ground at FII. Subscribe to Semafor Gulf and Semafor Business for more from Riyadh this week. →

Argentina, UK ties warm

Argentina could soon restart flights to the Falkland Islands after a four-year hiatus as frosty relations with Britain thaw. Buenos Aires has claimed the islands — which Argentines call the Malvinas — since the 19th century, and briefly invaded them in 1982, sparking war with the UK. As President Javier Milei vies to realign Argentina with the West, he has softened his government’s stance on the disputed territories: This year, Milei said former British foreign minister David Cameron “had every right” to visit the islands. However his strategy has divided Argentines, including his own cabinet. “We’re friends of everyone, but firstly of the motherland,” the country’s vice president wrote on X.

African ‘unicorn’ raises $110m

A Nigerian fintech startup was valued at over $1 billion, making it a rare African tech “unicorn.” Investors including Google pumped $110 million into Moniepoint, which offers digital banking services and payments. Africa’s weak and outdated banking systems are an opportunity for fintech companies: A 2022 analysis found that 90% of transactions in the continent used cash, and that fintech services were creating a “structural shift” in financial services. Moniepoint in particular has grown rapidly over the last two years, driven by Nigeria’s financial difficulties, but it’s a rare bright spot in a wider slowdown in the African tech sector: Funding has dropped, particularly from Western central banks, which are a key investor.

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Chinese billionaires lose out

The number of billionaires in China fell by a third and the collective wealth of the country’s richest people dropped 10%. An annual “rich list” by a financial consultancy revealed that the Chinese “super rich” saw their wealth decline for the third year in a row, as stock markets faltered and the economy slowed. Beijing’s target of 5% annualized growth was missed in all of the first three quarters of 2024, and while major stimulus measures in September boosted the market, the upswing was temporary. ByteDance boss Zhang Yiming was named the country’s richest person, up from fourth place last year.