Whoever wins the White House in November will face a changing US economy. So far, it has shown resilience against rising interest rates and global uncertainty. But inflation volatility is becoming the new normal, with more frequent supply shocks and structural labour shortages. Policies that boost demand (such as tax cuts) or target supply (such as tariff hikes) could reignite inflation faster, forcing the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates yet again.

But the big question is: what happens to global trade after November? Donald Trump’s first term marked a decisive turning point in US policy and, once again, higher tariffs are the centrepiece of his campaign. Realistically, if he wins a second term, tariffs on Chinese imports are likely to increase from 2.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent, rather than the 10 per cent promised. But that would still eat into US growth and could increase inflation by about 3.5 per cent. This, in turn, would force the Federal Reserve to hit the brakes on its easing cycle, leaving rates stuck at a steep 4.5 per cent in 2025. But a Kamala Harris victory wouldn’t end protectionism, either. The Biden administration’s generous industrial subsidies are protectionism by another name and they aren’t going anywhere if she wins.

Another concern is climate change. Interestingly, the two main candidates have similar goals when it comes to their energy agendas: reducing costs, decreasing foreign dependencies and improving US manufacturing and production. Where they differ is in how they plan to achieve their targets. Under Harris, tightening climate regulation and continued support for clean energy would accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuels. Trump, on the other hand, wants to promote fossil fuels. While this will not stop the industry’s long-term decline, it would delay the transition to renewables. So a Trump victory could significantly slow down the progress of the global green transition, fragmenting the planet’s response and incurring a much steeper economic cost.

Ludovic Subran is the chief economist of Allianz in Munich. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.

Kamala Harris had a simple message at a rally in Pennsylvania on Sunday. “Victory runs through Philly,” she said. And she’s not wrong. Candidates and their surrogates have been descending on Pennsylvania for much of the past year, viewing this state as the key prize of the presidential election on 5 November. Pennsylvania has been the leading battleground state ever since Donald Trump’s surprise victory over Hillary Clinton here in 2016, becoming the first Republican to win it since 1988. And he could win it again: an average of state polls compiled by media company RealClearPolitics puts Trump 0.5 percentage points ahead of Harris. This shift is largely down to blue-collar union workers who were once reliably Democratic but have since been swayed by Trump’s rhetoric on trade, immigration and the economy. But this race is not just being fought at campaign rallies. Lawyers have also been heading to the state in preparation for electoral challenges. Expect all eyes to be on Pennsylvania on 5 November and beyond.

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was left reeling after a dismal showing in Sunday’s general election, losing its majority in the 465-seat lower house for the first time in 15 years. The LDP and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, claimed 215 seats – a loss of 64, and well below the 233 needed to form a government. The main opposition group, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, won 148 seats, up from 98 previously.

Warsaw has announced plans to combine 41 towns into one “supercity”, creating a new metropolitan region. With a projected population of 2.1 million and an area of about 2,500 sq km, it will exceed both London and Rome in size. The purpose of the plan is “to facilitate tax collection”, says Mateusz Mazzini, writer at large for Gazeta Wyborcza. “But some towns are poorer than others so a unified tax system might require people to chip in for those who can’t afford to do so.”

In September, former Aesop executive Daniel Bense launched To My Ships, his line of natural deodorants and perfumes. The London-based brand is part of the increasingly lucrative personal-care industry, which was valued at $21.8bn (€19.9bn) in 2023. Bense tells Monocle about demand in a crowded market and lessons learnt from his time at Aesop.

We head to Rome to find out about a new film dedicated to the Women’s Liberation Movement in the 1970s before visiting one of the world’s largest contemporary art foundries in Walla Walla. Plus: an interview with French pop star Zaho de Sagazan.