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Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |
The Pentagon on Monday warned that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (right) has sent Russia around 10,000 troops for training — and some are already moving toward the battlefield frontlines near Ukraine. | Pool photo by Gavriil Grigorov | With help from Maggie Miller
Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric VLADIMIR PUTIN and KIM JONG UN’s budding friendship is taking a dangerous new turn.
The Pentagon on Monday warned that the North Korean leader has sent Russia around 10,000 troops for training — and some are already moving toward the battlefield frontlines near Ukraine. The Pentagon said it is increasingly concerned Russia could use the soldiers in combat, including against Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk.
It is the latest sign of how the war in Ukraine is roiling global security well beyond Europe’s borders. U.S. and allied officials who spoke to NatSec Daily voiced alarm about what military and technological know-how Moscow could pass to North Korea in exchange, and also how North Korea’s entrance to the conflict could add a new element of escalation and uncertainty to an already devastating war.
“It shows that the North Koreans are emboldened and reckless. Clearly they don’t care about escalation management,” said one senior Eastern European official, who like others was granted anonymity to discuss the matter candidly.
Still, officials are divided about what precise impact North Korean troops in Russia will have on the war. One U.S. administration official said it was unclear how effective and well-trained these troops would be, and questioned how, if at all, they could be integrated into Russia’s military command structure if they were meant to face combat.
One senior administration official said it shows signs of how the war has left Putin in dire straits, as Russia is now suffering a staggering 1,200 casualties per day in the war, according to the latest U.S. figures. “But that doesn't mean it's not a problem,” the official said. The Biden administration has responded to the alarming new ties between Russia and North Korea by boosting cooperation between its Asian and European allies in ways that some of these officials characterize as unprecedented before the war in Ukraine. National security adviser
JAKE SULLIVAN convened his South Korean counterpart SHIN WONSIK and Japanese counterpart AKIBA TAKEO for meetings in Washington on Oct. 25, where they discussed Russia and North Korea’s deepening ties. South Korean intelligence officials also traveled to Brussels on Monday to brief NATO on the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia,
as our own STUART LAU reports, in a new sign of cooperation between Seoul and the military alliance. Meanwhile, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN will host his South Korean counterpart, Kim Yong-hyun, at the Pentagon on Wednesday ahead of a larger meeting of diplomats from the two countries on Thursday in Washington, where the North Korean deployments will be a topic of discussion.
Read the full story from our own PAUL McLEARY and your lead newsletter writer here.
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Learn more. | | | | | GAZA TALKS RESUME:
Negotiators are returning to the table in Doha today in the hopes of brokering a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. But pessimism pervades the discussion, per the New York Times’ PATRICK KINGSLEY. Kingsley writes that few officials expect a conclusive result from any talks held before the U.S. election next Tuesday. Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU
is waiting to see who will succeed Biden before committing to a diplomatic trajectory. And Hamas has rejected an Egyptian proposal for a 48-hour cease-fire during which Hamas would release some hostages in exchange for Israel releasing some Palestinians it has imprisoned. Meanwhile, Tehran has vowed to respond to Israel’s Friday attack on Iranian military facilities, raising the specter of further regional conflict and volleys of attacks between the two longtime foes. Over the weekend, Iranian President MASOUD PEZESHKIAN
said Iran would "give an appropriate response to the attack, which killed four Iranian soldiers. But the scope of that response is still unclear — Supreme Leader ALI KHAMENEI said that the Israeli attack should not be "exaggerated or downplayed" and did not promise imminent retaliation. GEORGIA ON WASHINGTON’S MINDS:
The Biden administration is keeping a close eye on what Georgia’s government does in the wake of this weekend’s controversial parliamentary elections. A senior administration official, granted anonymity to speak freely about the U.S. government’s thinking, told NatSec Daily that the Georgian government created conditions ahead of this past Sunday’s election that “were highly problematic” and “which raised very, very serious concerns” about the sanctity of the country’s election.
The official added: “We're going to watch very carefully as events unfold in the next few days … Georgian citizens have a right to freedom of assembly, freedom of speech, and it's going to be critical that the government fully respect rule of law and fundamental freedoms.” The comments are just the latest reaction from Washington to this weekend’s parliamentary elections in Georgia, which the opposition has rejected as “rigged”
by the ruling pro-Kremlin Georgian Dream party. Lawmakers on the Hill from both sides of the aisle have decried the administration of the election and have called for new sanctions as protests develop in the south Caucasus country. In a joint statement, Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), who serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the top Republican on the committee, vowed to push for tougher sanctions if claims of fraud are substantiated.
“If needed, we will make additional changes to our bipartisan legislation, the Georgian People’s Act, to ensure that those responsible for fraud and manipulation of the election process are held accountable,” the lawmakers said. Their bipartisan bill would, among other things, suspend a strategic dialogue between Washington and Tbilisi and impose new sanctions on Georgian officials tied to human rights abuses in the country.
WATERSHED MOMENT IN JAPAN: Japan’s longtime ruling party suffered a major blow at the polls today, threatening to upend the country’s political consensus amid rising threats from China, Russia and North Korea. As The Wall Street Journal’s MIHO INADA reports
, the Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed the country almost uninterrupted since the Second World War, lost its coalition majority in the country’s Diet, or lower house of Parliament. That’s plunging the country into unexpected political uncertainty. Though it’s still the largest party in parliament, the Liberal Democratic Party will either need to find new partners to form a government or cede power to a coalition formed by other parties. IT’S MONDAY:
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RUSSIA IS STILL AT IT: A Russian influence and hacking group is behind recent efforts to target and compromise Ukrainian military recruits, and undermine support for recruitment efforts,
according to a report from Google’s Threat Intelligence Group published today. As our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in, the operation involved a group labeled as UNC5812 sending malware designed for Windows and Android systems on Telegram, while masquerading as a company called “Civil Defense.” The group claimed told targets that if they downloaded their software, it would show them the locations of Ukrainian military recruiters.
The report says that Google’s experts have been tracking the activity since September, and that the Civil Defense Telegram channel has at least 80,000 subscribers. At the time of the report’s publication, Google researchers assessed that UNC5812 is still active, and is trying to get its content posted on more legitimate Telegram channels.
This is only the latest finding in intense Russian disinformation and cyberattack efforts since prior to the full invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Most recently, this has also included a Russian hacking group associated with Russia’s intelligence services targeting government agencies and the Ukrainian military with a mass phishing campaign.
BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE: The United Kingdom on Monday formally called out Russian-linked disinformation operations that attempted to destabilize democracy in Ukraine, a move the State Department came out in support of today as well. As Maggie also writes in, the British government formally sanctioned
the Social Design Agency, which is funded by the Russian government along with three Russian leaders of the SDA and two other Russian groups associated with spreading disinformation. The State Department put out a statement supporting the move by the U.K.
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| INDIA AND SPAIN PARTNER:
2024 already defied a lot of NatSec Daily’s predictions, but we have to say — we definitely didn’t have New Delhi and Madrid partnering to build a new private military aircraft plant on our bingo sheet. As the Associated Press’ AJIT SOLANKI reports, Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI and Spanish Prime Minister
PEDRO SANCHEZ unveiled a new Tata Aircraft Complex in the country’s Gujarat state. The facility will produce Airbus C-295 transport military aircraft in collaboration with Airbus Spain for use in the Indian Air Force. The project, which furthers a multibillion dollar deal reached in 2021 to provide India with 16 Airbus aircraft manufactured in Spain, comes as New Delhi has sought to expand its military capabilities in the face of rising tensions with China and boost its domestic aerospace and defense industrial base.
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NATSEC LAWMAKERS FIGHT TO SURVIVE: A number of House and Senate races this year have the potential to unseat key advocates for high-profile defense programs and cyber initiatives. Rep.
ZACH NUNN (R-Iowa) and Sen. JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.) are trying to hold on to their swing seats. Meanwhile, Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.), who chairs the Senate Appropriations Defense subcommittee, is facing a tough re-election battle in ruby red Montana against former Navy SEAL TIM SHEEHY. Nunn,
our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity noted this morning, has made cyber a main focus of his first term, partnering with Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.) on legislation targeting Chinese blockchain threats and pushing bills to boost cybersecurity for rural water systems, create agriculture cybersecurity centers for rural communities and combat AI-powered disinformation. Rosen has also pushed for new laws beefing up healthcare cybersecurity and cybersecurity at the Department of Veterans Affairs.
And Tester, our friends at Morning Defense wrote this morning (for Pros!), has been a lead advocate for robust defense investments including the Sentinel missile system at Montana's Malmstrom Air Force Base. A Tester loss would also launch a fight within the Democratic caucus over his coveted subcommittee gavel, as Tester oversees more than half of federal discretionary spending.
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CHINA’S CIA CRACK: Beijing, to quote the youths, is “big mad” about the Central Intelligence Agency’s efforts to recruit informants and spies in China. At a Foreign Ministry press conference this morning, spokesperson LIN JIAN was asked about reports in The Wall Street Journal
about China’s expanding espionage efforts. He responded by lashing efforts by the CIA to advertise within China about how to leak information to the agency. Lin said that Beijing “will resolutely crack down on infiltration and sabotage activities by anti-China forces outside China and defend national sovereignty, security and development interest.”
Lin added that “the U.S. on the one hand blatantly carries out spying activities worldwide, yet on the other makes unwarranted accusation of spying threat against other countries. This is a clear misrepresentation of the facts.” Earlier this year, the CIA unveiled efforts to recruit spies and informants by posting ads on social media in Russian, Mandarin and other languages near the adversaries’ embassies explaining how wannabe leakers could get in touch with the U.S. intelligence agency.
Read: CHRISTIAN SHEPHERD and KATRINA NORTHROP, The Washington Post: As ties with the U.S. worsen, China asks: Who’s the new Kissinger?
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— LAURA CRESSEY is now acting deputy assistant secretary for regional security in the State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs.
| | — JAMIE DETTMER, POLITICO:
While war continues, Lebanon is trapped — DOROTHY WICKENDEN, The New Yorker: The aid workers who risk their lives to bring relief to Gaza — DEREK SCISSORS, American Enterprise Institute:
Trump’s unmatched China weakness
| | — The Washington Post, 9 a.m.:
Lessons in service, resilience and leadership from the nation's veterans — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Left out in the cold? Reviving U.S.-Canada relations — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.:
“Crossing the Rubicon: North Korea Sends Troops to Russia," as part of the Impossible State podcast — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: A virtual book discussion on "Neutrality After 1989." — New America, 12 p.m.:
Virtual book discussion on "The Siege: A Six-Day Hostage Crisis and the Daring Special-Forces Operation That Shocked the World.” — Georgetown University's Master of Science in Foreign Service Program, 12:30 p.m.:
Sweden's accession to NATO, the relationship between Sweden and the U.S., and the implications of Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine for Europe's geopolitical landscape — Hudson Institute, 1 p.m.: "Advancing Joint Experimentation to Solve Operational Problems." —
Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2 p.m.: Countering authoritarian abuse of INTERPOL — Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: Towards a new equilibrium: Strategic deterrence on the Taiwan Strait crisis
Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who constantly accuses us of spying on her. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, the best handler we could ask for.
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