THE BUZZ: CASH DASH — In just two years, Will Rollins has rapidly ascended from longshot candidate to Democratic Party darling.
As Dustin reported over the weekend, the scale of outside money pouring into Rollins’ rematch against Republican Rep. Ken Calvert
illustrates how intently Democrats are fighting to flip the inland Southern California district in their bid to retake the House majority. The party and its allies have put more than $6 million into TV advertising, while Rollins has raised another $11.5 million — dwarfing the roughly $4.6 million spent on the Democratic side last cycle. “Will Rollins, I tell folks, I think is the best candidate we have in the country,” said California Rep. Pete Aguilar, the chair of the House Democratic Caucus.
Recent polling suggests Calvert and Rollins are in a dead heat in what has become one of the most closely watched and expensive battleground slugfests in the country, as both sides swamp the district with ads and armies of door-knocking canvassers. The momentum among Democrats has been building since Rollins came within a mere four percentage points of the incumbent two years ago. Now, they feel they have a real chance at flipping the seat.
“This is no longer a possible, this is a very possible. He’s got name recognition now,” said Elle Kurpiewski, political director for the Democratic Headquarters of the Desert, a regional party outreach office. Republicans, who have responded with a late surge of spending, have sounded alarm bells in recent weeks about Calvert’s vulnerability. When former President Donald Trump
held a massive rally in the Southern California desert on the edge of Calvert’s district this month, he made an appeal to the thousands of people baking in the triple-digit heat: “Everybody needs to get out and vote for Ken.” It’s not just this race. An avalanche of money is pouring into other battle congressional campaigns in California and New York. As POLITICO’s
Jessica Piper, Melanie Mason and Emily Ngo report today, roughly one in three independent expenditure dollars in House races have been spent in the two blue states this year, up from one in five over the 2022 election cycle, according to a POLITICO analysis of Federal Election Commission data. California and New York seen the greatest increases in out-of-state money, both in dollars and as a percentage of overall spending, compared to 2022.
Republican PACs, including the Congressional Leadership Fund, have accelerated their spending behind Calvert in recent weeks. The Republican incumbent also has vastly greater resources than he did in 2022 — about $9.5 million more from outside groups — and a new super PAC started by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy has also spent $300,000 to attack Rollins.
Calvert’s district is no longer the deep-red stronghold it once was, after it was redrawn as a purple battleground during California’s last redistricting process. It now encompasses the deep-blue, LGBTQ-friendly desert oasis of Palm Springs, as well as the conservative suburbs of Riverside County, east of Los Angeles — creating vulnerabilities for the incumbent.
Calvert called Democrats’ criticisms over his opposition to abortion rights and evolving record on marriage equality a distraction from “bread and butter” issues like gas prices and crime. “Those are settled issues in California,” he said in an interview. “Those things aren’t going anywhere in a state like ours.” GOOD MORNING.
Happy Monday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. Early in-person vote centers opened up across 29 counties over the weekend. You can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at
lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte.
WHERE’S GAVIN? Holding a virtual news conference this afternoon to discuss the state's crime-fighting efforts. The governor this week will also be hitting the trail in a final get-out-the-vote push across the state, including in key House and legislative races, his team tells us. Deets TBD.
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