Nearshoring darling Mexico is still waiting for a flood of foreign investment to bolster its economy.

Some of that can be attributed to the lagged effects of industrial development on GDP, as well as companies awaiting the outcome of a US presidential election with huge implications for trade policy.

But it also reflects long-running challenges that have held back the Latin American nation from becoming a bigger force, from electricity shortages and political turbulence to judicial reform, as Bloomberg’s Carolina Millan reports here from Mexico City.

Mexico’s economic growth is expected to slow to an estimated 1.5% in 2024, according to a Citigroup survey of more than two dozen analysts, down from 3.2% in 2023.

Watch: How the US Election Could Impact Its Relationship With Mexico

Since 2022, foreign direct investment flows have mostly come from reinvestments by companies already operating in Mexico, rather than fresh bets, said Felipe Hernandez, who covers Latin America for Bloomberg Economics.

Mexico has received some major investments, but some high-profile plans remain contingent on the political climate north of the border:

• Taiwan’s Foxconn recently announced that it’s building the world’s largest assembly plant for servers housing Nvidia chips
• Tesla is holding off on building a planned factory in the Monterrey area because he wants to see how the US election shakes out
• BYD, the Chinese electric-vehicle maker, has been scouting locations for a Mexico plant but is delaying an announcement to see the outcome of the American election

“I’m very concerned on the rhetoric from Trump about putting a lot of tariffs on vehicles manufactured in Mexico,” said Alberto Chretin, the former chairman and chief executive officer of industrial real estate investment company Terrafina.

—Brendan Murray in London

Click here for more of Bloomberg.com’s most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Shallow river | The Mississippi River is suffering from low water levels for the third straight autumn, a crucial time of year when American farmers rely on the route to deliver their crops to the world.

• Read today’s Big Take: Trade-tracking data show how an Indian firm is selling top-end Dell servers optimized for artificial intelligence to Russia. Separately, TSMC’s founder said the the company will soon face its “most severe” challenges in driving growth at a time that the US is controlling the flows of cutting-edge chips to China. 
• Mercedes-Benz was once a standard of automotive refinement, but swooning sales and profits underscore how even the lucrative upscale end of the car market is feeling the heat from China. Meanwhile, the EU still sees “significant remaining gaps” with Beijing after eight rounds of negotiations aimed at avoiding tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles.
• Volkswagen’s top labor leader said Europe’s biggest automaker plans to close at least three factories in Germany as part of wide-ranging cost reductions to become more competitive.
• Watch EU Economics Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni discuss how geopolitical tensions and tariffs will undermine growth and stresses the importance of open trade during an interview on “Balance of Power.”
• Chancellor Rachel Reeves will not unveil any new freeports across the UK in her budget this week. Separately, South African lender Absa Group secured a $150 million trade financing facility with the UK’s development finance arm to boost small businesses in the continent. 
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for further diversification of the nation’s trade as he looks to reduce the economy’s dependence on China in favor of India.
• Meg Whitman, US ambassador to Kenya, is working to increase US tech investment in Africa, which has been largely dominated by China's Huawei.

Bloomberg Supply Chain Intelligence Webinar Series: Artificial intelligence technology has been with us for decades, but the recent release of ChatGPT and other LLMs have transformed how we use and view AI at work and at home. Is AI ready to be deployed in supply chain management and what do I need to know about this powerful technology? Join us on Nov. 6 when host Matthew Ekroth sits down with Risto Miikkulainen, VP of AI Research at Cognizant AI Labs, for a fireside chat on this important topic. Click here to register.

• The sequential rise in manufacturing expectations captured by Germany’s Ifo gauge bodes well for European industrials, but the worsening ‘current situation’ and soft business climate components amid a ‘lack of orders’ offer limited evidence of a recovery, Bloomberg Intelligence says. 
• Supply chain relationships of Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon.com will be in focus this week when they report earnings. This Bloomberg analysis shows the frequency with which shares of suppliers and customers have moved in tandem.
• Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
• Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
• See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
• For freight dashboards, see {BI RAIL}, {BI TRCK} and {BI SHIP} and {BI 3PLS}
• Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
• On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
• See BNEF for BloombergNEF’s analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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