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By Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | |||
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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine | |||
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FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — A new poll conducted for Rep. COLIN ALLRED’s Democratic Senate campaign against Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) finds a tied race. The survey of 800 likely voters by GBAO Strategies from Oct. 18 to 23 found the two deadlocked at 46 percent. “The momentum in the Texas Senate race is with Colin Allred, but to finish the job he will need the resources to appeal to a broad base of supporters across Texas,” the memo reads. Gut check … NYT/Siena this morning has Cruz ahead, 50 percent to 46 percent, among likely Texas voters surveyed from Oct. 23 to 26. Another recent independent poll of the race, from Emerson College last week, had Cruz one point ahead. Eyes emoji … Independent DAN OSBORN is within two points of GOP Sen. DEB FISCHER among likely Nebraska voters, 48 percent to 46 percent, per NYT/Siena. A HEADLINE WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS — “Some billionaires, CEOs hedge bets as Trump vows retribution,” by WaPo’s Jeff Stein, Jacqueline Alemany and Josh Dawsey | |||
Trump’s team spent last night doing something unusual: playing cleanup. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO | |||
A TALE OF TWO CLOSING ARGUMENTS — When DONALD TRUMP’ s campaign released some of their final ads over the weekend, GOP political pros cheered. The spots hit exactly the themes they’ve long wanted Trump to push — highlighting the economy and immigration, tying KAMALA HARRIS to JOE BIDEN, and focusing voters on whether they’re better off now than under Trump’s first term. “Nailed it,” consultant and CNN commentator SCOTT JENNINGS posted yesterday. That, however, wasn’t the closing message offered at Trump’s Madison Square Garden extravaganza last night. Rather than stifle the excesses of the MAGA fringe, the six-hour program put it all on full display: — Radio host SID ROSENBERG called Second Gentleman DOUG EMHOFF “a crappy Jew” and Democrats “a bunch of degenerates, lowlifes and Jew-haters.” — Trump friend DAVID REM referred to Harris as “the anti-Christ.” — Business guru GRANT CARDONE said Harris "and her pimp handlers will destroy our country." The big headline grabber, though, was TONY HINCHCLIFFE, a pro-Trump comedian with a history of edgy racial remarks, who decided he would spice up Trump’s efforts to woo Black and Latino voters by crudely roasting those very groups. Latinos, he said, “love making babies. There’s no pulling out. They come inside, just like they do to our country,” Hinchcliffe said, adding minutes later: “There’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico.” At another point Hinchcliffe pointed to Black man in the crowd and made fun of his durag before making a watermelon joke. More from Meridith McGraw and Lisa Kashinsky Frankly, it made subsequent comments from the likes of TUCKER CARLSON, ELON MUSK, HULK HOGAN and Trump himself seem downright tame — and it ignited a wave of revulsion not just from Democrats, but from multiple Latino celebrities. A host of infuriated Republicans rushed to distance themselves from the Puerto Rico remarks, in particular. Florida Sen. RICK SCOTT called the joke “not funny and … not true,” adding “Puerto Ricans are amazing people and amazing Americans!” Florida Rep. MARIA ELVIRA SALAZAR declared herself “disgusted” and said the crack “does not reflect GOP values.” New York Rep. ANTHONY D’ESPOSITO (who knows from campaign distractions) implored Trump world to “Stay on message.” The jaw-slackening comments not only upstaged Trump, but they drowned out one of his final policy rollouts: a tax credit for home health caregivers. (We didn’t see many headlines about that, given the uproar.) The timing was remarkable: While Trump brought the MAGA carnival to his true-blue hometown, Harris had spent the day reaching out to the roughly 300,000 Puerto Ricans in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, visiting a restaurant in Philadelphia and rolling out new policies to help the U.S. territory. Moments after Hinchcliffe trashed the “island of garbage,” Puerto Rican megarapper BAD BUNNY shared Harris’ plan with his millions of followers. And Democratic operatives salivated at a final opportunity to mobilize a crucial swing demographic. “Can someone please give @NuestroPAC $30,000 so I can text this to every Puerto Rican voter in Pennsylvania,” posted CHUCK ROCHA , who leads the super PAC dedicated to turning out Latino voters. Perhaps that’s why Trump’s team spent last night doing something unusual: playing cleanup. Don’t call it an apology, but campaign spokesperson DANIELLE ALVAREZ spent her night sending this statement around to reporters: “This joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign.” (Hinchcliffe himself said it was “ taken out of context.”) We were reminded of what our colleague Chris Cadelago wrote in Playbook last weekend, about how there are two parallel Trump campaigns: one led by experienced and disciplined professionals, the other one more freewheeling, shambolic and reflective of the candidate himself. (Notably, as Meredith reports, the campaign let it be known that it had not vetted the comedy set.) Last night, Trump essentially handed a giant microphone to that second, undisciplined outfit, just as the other, more professional effort is trying to make a fine-tuned appeal to Americans otherwise repulsed by him. The entire situation perfectly encapsulates Trump’s campaign all year: At a time when Republicans are begging him to stay on message, he — and those hand-picked to surround him — can’t help themselves. Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Take a cue from TYRIQUE STEVENSON, campaign pros: “ The game ain’t over until zeros hit the clock.” Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels. | |||
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BUT, BUT, BUT — Republicans aren’t the only ones grappling with their closing message. As NYT’s Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman scooped last night, the super-flush super PAC backing Harris is raising last-minute red flags “that focusing too narrowly on [Trump]’s character and warnings that he is a fascist is a mistake in the closing stretch of the campaign.” Since former Trump chief of staff JOHN KELLY essentially called Trump the F-word last week, the Harris campaign has been seemingly all-in on danger-to-democracy messaging after shying away from it over the summer. Harris is now set to speak tomorrow at the Ellipse, a site specifically chosen to draw a contrast with Trump’s infamous rally on Jan. 6, 2021. But Future Forward’s widely circulated “Doppler” emails said “attacking Trump’s fascism is not that persuasive” — and should be used only as a lead-in to details about her plans to address economic matters and reproductive rights. The suggestion that Harris might be blowing it prompted the publicity-shy head of the super PAC, CHAUNCEY McLEAN , to issue a statement to the NYT: “Don’t over-read this,” he said, adding that tying Trump’s words “to consequences in voters’ lives [is] what Kamala Harris does every day.” THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Harris delivers address at the Ellipse in Washington. Trump holds rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Biden delivers economic speech in Baltimore. … Wednesday: Trump holds rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, with
BRETT FAVRE. Harris campaigns in Raleigh, North Carolina; Pennsylvania; and Madison, Wisconsin. Q3 economic growth estimate released. Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN host trick-or-treaters at the White House. … Thursday: Halloween. Trump holds rallies in Henderson, Nevada, and Albuquerque, New Mexico. Harris campaigns in Phoenix, Las Vegas and Reno, Nevada. September PCE inflation numbers released. …
Friday: Biden delivers speech on labor in Philadelphia. Trump holds rally in Milwaukee. … Saturday: Trump holds rally in Salem, Virginia. … Sunday: Daylight Saving Time ends. | |||
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On the Hill The House and the Senate are out. What we’re watching … The blossoming relationship between Trump and Speaker MIKE JOHNSON was on full view at Madison Square Garden last night. Not only did Johnson get a speaking slot, butTrump all but endorsed him to stay on as speaker if the election results go the right way: “He’s going to be around for a long time I predict,” said Trump, who addressed Johnson as he made some potentially more sinister comments that could be a reference to the House settling a contested election: “I think with our little secret we are going to do really well with the House, right?” he said. “He and I have a secret — we will tell you what it is when the race is over.” The speaker put a finer point on their alliance in an interview with Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke, saying he expects Trump to “be fully supportive” of him keeping the gavel. At the White House Biden will vote early in Wilmington, Delaware, at 11 a.m. Then he’ll return to the White House, where he’ll virtually thank Hurricane Helene first responders at 3 p.m. and call elected officials to talk about Helene and Milton recovery at 3:45 p.m. Biden will speak at a Diwali celebration at 5:30 p.m. On the trail Harris is in Michigan to focus on investments in manufacturing jobs. She’ll visit Corning’s facility in Saginaw at 2:20 p.m., tour a union training facility in Macomb County at 5:20 p.m. and conclude with a rally in Ann Arbor at 7:15 p.m. with MAGGIE ROGERS. Harris will return to D.C. at night. Trump will hold a rally in Atlanta at 6 p.m. Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) will speak in Wausau, Wisconsin, at 3 p.m. Eastern and in Racine at 6:30 p.m. Eastern.
Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ will have political events in Manitowoc, Wisconsin, at 11:30 a.m. Eastern and in Waukesha at 2:45 p.m. Eastern. Then he’ll join Harris in Ann Arbor, before ending the night in Savannah, Georgia. | |||
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VP Kamala Harris didn’t get specific about what restrictions on abortion she would support during her CBS interview with Norah O'Donnell, but reiterated that the Roe standard is her focus. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | |||
ABOUT LAST NIGHT — Harris sat down for a CBS interview with Norah O’Donnell that aired across the network yesterday, when she emphasized that restoring Roe v. Wade is at the top of her priority list if elected. Harris didn’t get specific about what restrictions on abortion she would support, but reiterated that the Roe standard is her focus. Harris also spoke about the latest in the Middle East, where she urged Iran not to respond to Israel’s latest retaliation with more retaliation of its own. “We are prepared to defend Israel, as we have before. We will again,” Harris said. “But the critical point is that there must be a de-escalation in the region.” She didn’t elaborate on how the U.S. might punish Tehran if it hits Israel again. And on the trail, Harris made a play for Latino and Black voters with several stops around Philly yesterday, the Inquirer’s Julia Terruso and Jake Blumgart report. RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Vote Common Good has a new ad narrated by JULIA ROBERTS aimed at urging Christian women to back Harris — even if they have to keep it a secret from their husbands. Roberts calls the voting booth “the one place in America where women still have a right to choose. … What happens in the booth stays in the booth.” The progressive evangelical group is putting six figures behind a digital spend. Watch it here WHOOPS — A new Trump ad claims the U.S. has “gone to hell” during Biden’s presidency — but one of its images of unrest is from his own tenure, Adam Wren reports. BATTLE FOR THE BALLOT — An appeals court became the latest to reject Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN’s move to strike 1,600 people from the voter rolls, per the Richmond Times-Dispatch’s Dave Ress. It’s heading toward the Supreme Court now. MICHAEL FLYNN VS. THE ELECTORAL COUNT REFORM ACT — “Far-Right Figures Escalate Talk of Retribution and Election Subversion,” by NYT’s Charles Homans and Alexandra Berzon NARRATIVE WATCH — In races across the country, the drug war is back, Carmen Paun reports. Empathetic talk about people struggling with substance abuse has faded; now politicians emphasize law enforcement cracking down on fentanyl traffickers. HOW HARRIS WINS — “In the critical suburbs of Philly, Harris volunteers hunt for winnable Republicans,” by NBC’s Peter Nicholas in Wayne, Pennsylvania: “[T]he Harris campaign believes it has marshaled enough people to saturate this patch of Pennsylvania, find these voters and turn them out in numbers that could be decisive in a tight race. It’s the ground game version of ‘shock and awe.’” HOW TRUMP WINS — In Buncombe County, North Carolina, Hurricane Helene has devastated a usually robust Democratic turnout operation, NOTUS’ Anna Kramer reports from Asheville. A paucity of volunteers has made it harder to reach primarily Spanish-speaking and Black areas. RACE FOR THE HOUSE CASH DASH — Fully one-third of independent expenditure spending in House races has gone to California and New York, where Democrats are trying to claw back blue-state seats they biffed in 2022 and Republicans want to protect their majority, Jessica Piper, Melanie Mason and Emily Ngo report. REDUX, PART I — “Will Rollins was written off in 2022. Now, he could help deliver a Democratic majority,” by Dustin Gardiner in Palm Springs, California REDUX, PART II — “This Democrat pulled off one of the country’s biggest upsets. Can she win again in Trump country?” by the L.A. Times’ Mark Barabak in Amboy, Washington: “[Rep. MARIE] GLUESENKAMP PEREZ’s willingness to buck her party and her fluency in grievance politics are the reason she stands a chance.” RACE FOR THE STATES UNDER THE RADAR — Nebraska voters will decide next month whether to undo the state’s school voucher law that gives public money for kids to attend private school, Juan Perez Jr. reports. Democrats hope the nonpartisan push, which has become a political flashpoint, could boost them in other races; issue advocates think Nebraska could be a trend-setter for other states to unwind voucher programs if the repeal passes. REALITY CHECK — “Why Kamala Harris and Donald Trump Don’t Need to Worry About Deepfakes,” by Sasha Issenberg: “It’s not the presidential campaign that people need to be concerned with — it’s local races.” POLL POSITION National: Tied, per TIPP. … New Hampshire: Trump +0.4 (!), per New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica. … Montana: TIM SHEEHY +4,
per Emerson/The Hill. … Arizona: Trump +2, Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO +4, per Trafalgar. … Georgia: Trump +2, per Trafalgar. … Alaska:
Trump +8, per Alaska Survey Research. … South Carolina: Trump +13, per East Carolina University. | |||
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POLICY CORNER | |||
Boris Epshteyn and other Trump advisers are working on a proposal for Trump to skip FBI background checks and hand out security clearances for top positions if he wins the White House. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo | |||
ANOTHER NORM IN JEOPARDY — BORIS EPSHTEYN and other Trump advisers are working on a proposal for Trump to skip FBI background checks and hand out security clearances to many loyalists for top positions if he wins the White House, NYT’s Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan and Charlie Savage reveal. That could “potentially increas[e] the risks of people with problematic histories or ties to other nations being given influential White House roles.” But on top of general suspicion of law enforcement, many people in Trump’s orbit are dubious of FBI background checks in particular, which tripped up people like Epshteyn and JARED KUSHNER in Trump’s first term. This memo suggests turning to the private sector to investigate potential appointees before Inauguration Day. Security clearances have long been a key tool for the federal government to ensure the protection of national security secrets, but they’re ultimately conducted at a president’s discretion. Of course, the existence of the advisers’ memo does not mean Trump has signed off on it. TRANSITION TROUBLE — “Congress may have created a boon for Trump in trying to Trump-proof the transition,” by Alice Miranda Ollstein: “Congress passed a law in 2022 allowing multiple leading presidential candidates to get transition resources before a winner is determined in a contested election. … [T]he new law may grant Trump access to the federal resources and state secrets needed to start building a government without having to adhere to rules on fundraising, conflicts of interests and transparency — even if he loses.” JUDICIARY SQUARE LOOK WHO’S BACK — STEVE BANNON gets out of prison tomorrow, and his allies say he’ll jump right back into the presidential race, NOTUS’ Jose Pagliery reports. Expect him to return to his podcast and perhaps hit the campaign trail. | |||
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Among the info that Salt Typhoon snatched are phone-call audio and text messages from political figures, including a Trump adviser. | Emily Elconin/Getty Images | |||
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AMERICA AND THE WORLD HACK ATTACK — News that a Chinese hack had sought to spy on Trump, Vance and Harris’ allies is now coming under investigation by the Cyber Safety Review Board, which was stood up in 2022 and is overseen by DHS, WSJ’s Dustin Volz scooped. The panel’s probe of the telecom vulnerability builds on Biden administration concerns that the actions by Salt Typhoon may “amount to a major espionage coup against the U.S.” Investigating the compromised phones could take months before the panel releases any public report; the federal government is still actively working to deal with the incursion. Among the info that Salt Typhoon snatched are phone-call audio and text messages from political figures, including a Trump adviser, WaPo’s Ellen Nakashima and Josh Dawsey report. The spying effort appears to have kicked off months ago. So far, the number of identified victims of the hack is still only in double digits. MIDDLE EAST LATEST — A new letter from Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN and her Western counterparts warns Israel not to take steps t |
