By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Sue Allan

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In today's edition:

→ The ultimatums not to be.

→ A never-ending privilege debate passes its one-month birthday.

→ Saskatchewan goes to the polls.

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston and his family make way for Government House Sunday en route to calling a snap election. | Riley Smith, The Canadian Press

EAST COAST VOTE — A day after a cheeky special media post about doing fall yard work, Nova Scotia Premier TIM HOUSTON called a snap election.

Nova Scotians will go to the polls Nov. 26.

Houston ignored a 2025 fixed election date his government passed into law in 2021. He offered two main justifications for the early campaign.

— First reason: "We are ready to make significant new investments in areas like housing and affordability, but before we enact that plan, Nova Scotians should have their say."

— Second reason: "Our province risks becoming a political football in a federal election that could be held simultaneously with the current scheduled fixed election date. That is not in the province’s best interest."

— Unspoken reason: Houston's Progressive Conservatives have held commanding leads in opinion polls since they formed government three years ago — though few pollsters have been in the field this year.

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ANTICLIMAX WEEK — No surprise that a pair of political ultimatums could pass with only modest fanfare this week. This is a town where deadlines go to die.

Just ask any journalist who attempts to pry basic information from the gatekeepers who guard it. Our deadlines can become little more than guidelines.

Which brings us to this week's showdowns on Parliament Hill.

— Trudeau's test: A stubborn corner of Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU's caucus hoped last week that he would reconsider his future in the short term. They urged him to spend the weekend mulling their request for his resignation.

Trudeau didn't need even 24 hours to reassert his hold on the party, telling reporters on Thursday that he'd stay on. Twenty MPs stood behind him and applauded.

The PM repeated those lines Friday during the latest stop on his podcast tour — this time on an episode of Village Media's "Inside the Village."

Only some kind of prime ministerial weekend epiphany or supernatural deus ex machina is likely to give the dissenters what they want by the end of the day.

→ Keep an eye out: One Liberal MP, granted anonymity to speak freely, teased the possibility of intrigue — but didn't elaborate on what.

The dissenters set an expectation that their deadline wouldn't simply come and go, the MP said, adding that Trudeau's most recent insistence on running again didn't disappear all the grumbling.

→ What's next: Wednesday's caucus meeting, where the rabble-rousers will join his supporters for a midweek check-in.

— Bloc bluster: YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET's crew has threatened to pull its support for the government on confidence motions if Liberals fail to turn two Bloc Québécois private members' bills into law by Tuesday.

Spoiler alert: neither is likely to cross the finish line known as royal assent.

→ Bill C-282: Senators are taking their time considering LUC THÉRIAULT's legislative attempt to bar Canada's trade negotiators from making concessions on supply-managed sectors. A Senate committee is still studying the bill with a fine-tooth comb.

As Playbook first reported, Senate foreign affairs committee chair PETER BOEHM rebuffed Trade Minister MARY NG's written appeal to expedite the passage of C-282.

This week, Boehm's committee will hold hearings Wednesday and Thursday. Among the witnesses: SYLVAIN CHARLEBOIS, ROLAND PARIS and JOHN MANLEY.

The committee intends to start the study's next phase — clause-by-clause consideration — during the first week in November.

→ Bill C-319: ANDRÉANNE LAROUCHE 's PMB would hike old age security payments for seniors aged 65-74 — a measure estimated to cost C$16 billion over five years.

Related reading: "The politicization of old age security: How the Bloc is hoisting the Liberals on their own petard," via former Conservative Leader ERIN O'TOOLE's Substack.

— Status report: C-319 is stuck at third reading in the House, where private members' business is on hold amid a privilege motion debate that has snarled most chamber business.

Speaking of which …

HOUSE BUSINESS — More than a calendar month has passed since MPs first debated a Conservative motion of privilege that has dominated proceedings.

Tory House Leader ANDREW SCHEER moved the motion Sept. 26 following a speaker's ruling. Scheer wants access to unredacted documents related to a conflict-of-interest scandal at a federally funded green investment foundation.

— Today's agenda: MPs are debating an amendment that would send the matter to a parliamentary committee. The motion takes precedence over most House business.

Conservatives won't let debate collapse. They're running out the clock each day, preventing the government from advancing its agenda.

Liberals haven't yet motioned for closure, which would require the support of another opposition party. Committees are still humming along, but bills are stalled in the House.

— In a dream world: Government House Leader KARINA GOULD outlined her preferred agenda in a spicy weekly statement last Thursday.

→ C-71, which amends citizenship rules.

→ C-66, which reforms the military justice system.

→ C-63, which aims to regulate online activity.

Gould took a swipe at PIERRE POILIEVRE's choice not to apply for security clearance.

In lieu of any debate on government bills, expect the Liberal benches to claim the Conservative leader "clearly has something to hide."

SASKATCHEWAN VOTES — Is Saskatchewan in store for an electoral upset?

CARLA BECK 's New Democrats came out on top in three opinion polls as the campaign entered its final days. An Insightrix Research poll measured a 5-point lead last week. Mainstreet tracked a 4-point advantage. Liaison Strategies pegged the lead at 3 points.

Beck's team holds the advantage in Regina and Saskatoon, but SCOTT MOE's Sask Party leads elsewhere in the province.

"It's possible that the NDP may win the popular vote on Monday night but that the Saskatchewan Party wins the most number of seats," Liaison wrote. "It really will come down to how the vote splits outside the major urban centers."

— Counterpoint: Cardinal Research gives Moe a 6-point lead.

— Where to watch: Playbook got on the horn with DALE RICHARDSON, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies in Regina who spent five years as a Sask Party staffer.

Moe and co. are likely to dominate rural ridings. Richardson is watching a handful of seats in Regina, where he says three Sask Party wins would likely indicate a comfortable majority win.

In the province's largest city, Richardson is looking at a clutch of close ridings, including Saskatoon Chief Mistawasis and Saskatoon Southeast.

— An uphill battle: New Democrats would have to win almost every seat in the two largest cities, as well as make inroads in smaller centers. The magic number of seats for a majority is 31. 338Canada's latest projection gives Moe a slim majority win with 32.

— In election news from B.C.: NDP widens lead in tight B.C. election races, ASHLEY JOANNOU of CP reports. “The final tally will then be completed on Monday with the counting of more than 22,000 absentee and special ballots,” she reports.

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— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Ottawa with no public-facing events.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND has private meetings and QP on her agenda.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will hold a press conference in Ottawa at 10 a.m. Poilievre unveiled a promise this morning to remove the federal sales tax on new homes sold for under C$1 million. Details here.

— Playbook has not seen an itinerary for Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH and MP LEAH GAZAN will meet with Toronto advocates for abortion care at 11:30 a.m. An hour later, Singh will speak about an upcoming opposition day motion on the same topic.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will attend Parliament virtually.

— Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE is in Montreal, where at 9 a.m. he’ll participate in a panel at the International Conference on Advanced Lithium Batteries for Automotive Applications.

Champagne and Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC will be at the Senate national security committee at 4 p.m. to take questions on Bill C-26.

— Ontario Premier DOUG FORD is in Sudbury, Ontario, where he’ll hold a 2 p.m. presser.

Voters make selections at their voting booths inside an early voting site on Oct. 17, 2024 in Hendersonville, North Carolina. | Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

‘ARE YOU ROOTING FOR SOMEBODY’ — The prime minister was asked about the U.S. election near the tail end of an in-studio interview on the “Inside the Village” pod. His answer will come as no surprise to anyone familiar with Trudeau’s step-work since DONALD TRUMP was first elected in 2017.

“Listen, I have been very careful about making sure that Americans know that this is their choice to make,” Trudeau said. “My job as a Canadian prime minister is to stand up for Canada whoever they elect.”

— Trump vs. Canada: “Obviously, we did go through four years of Donald Trump before,” Trudeau said. “His attack on steel workers, on aluminum workers, on, you know, Canadian farmers is well documented. We were able to renegotiate our NAFTA and protect it in ways that has worked for the Canadian economy. We will continue to stand up for things as necessary.”

— Hold on, though: “We also know that even the Democrats, even KAMALA HARRIS, have certain protectionist tendencies,” Trudeau said. “That's par for the course. That means we're going to be needing to stand up for Canadian jobs as well.”

Trudeau said protecting Canadian interests is the “foundational job” of any PM.

— In news from the campaign: Trump’s New York homecoming sparks backlash over racist and vulgar remarks.

Every Monday, we'll remind you of some key events edging ever closer.

Sitting days, including today, until the Bloc's Oct. 29 legislative deadline: 1 … Christmas break: 32, at the absolute most … Summer: 101, at the absolute most.

Calendar days until U.S. election day: 8 … APEC Economic Leaders’ Dialogue: 18 … G20 summit: 21 … Statistics Canada’s next inflation data: 22 … Nova Scotia's election: 29 ... The Bank of Canada's next interest rate announcement: 44 … The PM's deadline to call a by-election in Cloverdale-Langley City, B.C.: 33.

Which must-watch countdowns are missing from this list? Tell us!

— Top of CBC News, via The Fifth Estate/Radio-Canada : "Tens of thousands of taxpayer accounts hacked as CRA repeatedly paid out millions in bogus refunds"

— The Toronto Star's ALTHIA RAJ sets up what's next inside the Liberal caucus.

— Japan faces political instability as ruling coalition loses majority, POLITICO’s JOE STANLEY-SMITH reports.

— In a letter from IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington, KEVIN CARMICHAEL reports that the mood was grim when it should have been celebratory.

— “Future governments must make national security a priority given the state of the world. They must also bring Canadians with them,” THOMAS JUNEAU and VINCENT RIGBY write in the National Post. “This will require greater transparency, but above all, leadership.”

For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by SUE ALLAN and MICKEY DJURIC: G7 finance ministers finalize Ukraine loan.

In other news for Pro readers:

— Defense policy in the lame duck.

— Harris taps White House aides to serve on transition team.

— EU scrambles to prepare for a Trump return.

— Largest U.S. labor organization wants USTR to stay put if Harris wins.

— How Trump 2.0 and Project 2025 could reshape chemical rules.

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Birthdays: HBD to DON NEWMAN, New Brunswick Green Party Leader and MLA DAVID COON and former NDP MP ROMEO SAGANASH.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: Calgary MP STEPHANIE KUSIE, petitioning the federal government to save 30,000-plus bricks in Calgary’s Olympic Plaza — a community project in 1988 in which Calgarians sponsored stones on the pathway around the festival area. “At this rate, Orwell’s famous character Winston Smith could have a full-time job at the City of Calgary or in the PMO,” Kusie wrote. The decision to tear up the pathway belongs to the city; the Calgary Municipal Land Corporation says it’s not feasible to save the bricks as it redevelops.

Liberal MP HEDY FRY, celebrating 31 years since she was first elected to the House.

Virtual poppies, lighting up the Senate and Peace Tower.

Noted: Sen. PAULETTE SENIOR has joined the Independent Senators Group.

Movers and shakers: Essayist, professor and politician MICHAEL IGNATIEFF — author of a biography of ISAIAH BERLIN — accepted the 2024 Princess of Asturias Award for Social Sciences last week with a speech about foxes, hedgehogs and foxes who want to be hedgehogs. “You've made one old fox very happy,” he told Spain’s PRINCESS LEONOR.

Media mentions: NAVNEET ALANG is now an editor with the Toronto Star's opinion team.

In memoriam: ROBERT SOPUCK, who served as a Conservative MP from 2010 to 2019, died Oct. 23. “Bob was in his affect young and vibrant,” MP MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER shared on X. “He lived each day to the fullest, and it is so strange to imagine a world without Bob in it.” Former PM STEPHEN HARPER remembered Sopuck as a formidable colleague: “He championed Ukraine’s sovereignty, chaired the Hunting and Angling Caucus, and worked tirelessly for the people of Western Manitoba.” Read Sopuck’s obituary.

Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here. 

11 a.m. The House environment committee will study environment and climate impacts related to the Canadian financial system.

11 a.m. The House fisheries and oceans committee will hear from the mayor of Bridgewater as it studies derelict and abandoned vessels.

11 a.m. The House international trade committee continues its look at tariffs and Chinese imports.

11 a.m. The House public accounts committee returns to its probe of Sustainable Development Technology Canada.

11 a.m. The House committee on the status of women will discuss gender-based violence.

3:30 p.m. Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister GARY ANANDASANGAREE, Indigenous Services Minister PATTY HAJDU and Northern Affairs Minister DAN VANDAL will be at the House Indigenous and northern affairs committee to discuss priorities related to their mandate.

3:30 p.m. The House industry committee will hear from the Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank o