Donald Trump’s huge rally, Kamala Harris’ missing boss, and the dollar’s entrenched dominance.͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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October 28, 2024
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The World Today

  1. Trump’s NYC mega-rally
  2. Harris avoids Biden
  3. The dollar’s dominance
  4. Europe’s Georgia struggle
  5. Uruguay’s civil election
  6. The risks of Iran’s weakness
  7. Sudan on UN’s agenda
  8. China’s civil service allure
  9. Macron exposed by Strava
  10. Farewell floppies in SF

The London Review of Substacks, and a recommendation for a movie about death that is ‘on the side of life.’

1

Trump threatens mass deportations

A chart showing the changing voting patterns of Hispanic voters from 2016

Former US President Donald Trump said he would launch “the largest deportation operation in American history” while speaking at a rally that critics said was marked by racist and vulgar language. Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle hit back at what they called the rally’s anti-Latino rhetoric, including a speech by a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.” The rally could have political implications, with more than 500,000 Puerto Ricans living in the key swing state of Pennsylvania. Still, both the Republicans and the Democrats said the rally was a win for their side, with the former praising the turnout, and the latter highlighting the “crude and offensive remarks” of the speakers, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reported.

For more on the presidential election, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

2

Harris distances herself from Biden

Beyoncé and US Vice President Kamala Harris embrace as they attend a campaign rally
Marco Bello/Reuters

US Vice President Kamala Harris has enlisted a number of A-list supporters at her events, from the former “First Couple” Barack and Michelle Obama to music superstar Beyoncé — but the current president of the United States has been notably absent. The Democrat is neck-and-neck with her Republican rival, ex-President Donald Trump, and has held a number of major rallies, but while Joe Biden is keen to help, Harris has yet to enlist him: Axios said that the Harris campaign was wary of being further tied to his unpopular presidency. That distancing would likely continue were she to win, with Harris reportedly planning to bring in an all-new White House staff.

3

The dollar’s dominance

A chart showing the total value of US banknotes in circulation

The dollar looks set to both strengthen its value and cement its dominance in the coming months, according to analysts. The US currency is gaining against a basket of rivals, driven largely by a “macro divergence story,” with the American economy maintaining its strength as Europe and China slow, as well as bets that Donald Trump will enact policies that will help the dollar if he wins next week’s election, ING economists said. Remarkably, the dollar has mostly retained its global role despite rising US political uncertainty and debt levels, with investors seeking the relative certainty and liquidity of American markets amid global turmoil, a prominent economist noted in Foreign Affairs: “Almost nothing could change this any time soon.”

4

Europe’s Georgia challenge

Supporters of the ruling Georgian Dream party wave Georgian flags and the party's flags from cars.
Zurab Javakhadze/Reuters

Georgia’s disputed election — in which a pro-Russia party won following what observers said was widespread fraud — showcases a number of challenges facing the European Union. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who holds the Council of the European Union’s rotating presidency, is headed to Tbilisi to congratulate and support the victorious candidate in the face of the criticism, the latest example of the Hungarian leader being at odds with his EU counterparts: He has also sparked anger in the bloc for “freelancing on ‘peace missions’” to Ukraine, Russia, and China, Politico noted. Ultimately, the Georgian election pits Europe and the West against Moscow: “This sort of power politics makes EU officials uncomfortable.”

5

Uruguay’s civil election

A map of Democracy Index scores across Latin America

Uruguay’s presidential election will head to a runoff, after a remarkably civilized” race that represented an exception to recent democratic backsliding across Latin America. In the latest sign of the erosion of regional norms, former Bolivian President Evo Morales accused the government in La Paz of attempting to kill him after a car he was traveling in was shot 14 times. Last month, prosecutors in Bolivia issued an arrest warrant for Morales — who is running in next year’s presidential election — over allegations that he ran a sex trafficking ring. Across Latin America, just 40% of respondents to a recent poll said they were satisfied with the state of democracy in their country, down from almost 60% a decade ago.

6

Tactical gains, strategic worries

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a memorial ceremony of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack.
Gil Cohen-Magen/Reuters

Israel’s attack on Iranian defense facilities highlighted Tehran’s limited military capabilities — and may risk the country accelerating its pursuit of nuclear weapons, analysts said. Iran’s supreme leader made muted comments following the strikes, saying they “should not be magnified or belittled,” remarkable from someone who has frequently called for Israel’s destruction. The assault “highlighted the significant gaps between the two sides,” The Wall Street Journal noted. Yet “lurking behind the satisfaction with the tactical gains lies a longer-term worry,” The New York Times reported: That Israel’s dominance may drive Iran to push harder for an atomic weapon. The attack came as Egypt proposed a two-day ceasefire in Gaza, another Israeli battlefield, with a Hamas official voicing openness to a truce.

7

UN meets on Sudan crisis

A chart showing the number of internally displaced people in Sudan between 2009 and 2023.

​​The United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency meeting today to discuss the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. At least 10 million people have been displaced since the onset of the war 18 months ago, while more than half of the country’s population is at risk of hunger. The head of the UN’s mission in Rwanda during the country’s 1994 genocide called on the Security Council to act swiftly to stop the rampant, ethnically motivated violence, and the widespread human rights abuses in Sudan. “The UN made a tragic mistake in waiting too long to respond to the genocide in Rwanda,” Roméo Dallaire wrote. “It must not do so again.

8

China’s public sector allure

A chart showing China's rising youth unemployment rate

A surging number of applications for government jobs in China underlines worries over the country’s economy. More than 3.4 million people will sit China’s national public service exam, or guokao, competing for 39,700 vacancies, a ratio of about 86 to 1. The exams, which will take place on Dec. 1, have become more popular in the past decade — about 1.4 million candidates competed for 22,000 positions in 2014, the South China Morning Post noted — despite reports of delayed wage payments for civil servants and an erosion of benefits. The “iron rice bowl” jobs nevertheless remain attractive, with China’s economy struggling to return to the bumper growth of past years and youth unemployment running at about 17%.

9

Macron’s Strava leak

French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech at the Elysee Palace in Paris.
Louise Delmotte/Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron’s security guards are inadvertently revealing his movements via the popular fitness app Strava, Le Monde reported. Members of the GSPR, the French equivalent of the US Secret Service, publish their runs on the platform publicly, “unknowingly sharing their locations online,” the outlet said. Le Monde was able to identify the names and addresses of a dozen of the French president’s bodyguards, and tracked jogging routes they used on reconnaissance trips to scout hotels Macron would stay at. The report is the latest in which sensitive location information has been compiled via Strava: In 2018, military analysts reviewing public data released by the app were able to identify US military bases abroad.

10

San Francisco joins 21st century