Tuesday Briefing: Two weeks to the U.S. election

October 22, 2024

	By Natasha Frost

Good morning. We’re covering the latest polls in the U.S. election and Israeli strikes near Beirut.

Plus: Aleksei Navalny’s memoir.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, standing at lecterns.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are hunting for the few undecided voters left. Erin Schaff for The New York Times; Nicole Craine for The New York Times

The U.S. election is tied

With two weeks to go before Americans head to the polls, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are running neck and neck, Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, writes.

Harris and Trump are essentially tied in The Times’s polling average of five critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Neither candidate is ahead by a single point, and in several of these states neither candidate is ahead by more than two-tenths of a percentage point.

The last-ditch hunt for undecided voters: Both campaigns are desperately hunting for the few voters still up for grabs. Both camps think many of them are younger, Black or Latino. The Harris team is also eyeing white, college-educated women, and Harris campaigned with former Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming at events aimed at Republican women.

Voter fraud: With early voting underway in many states, Trump acknowledged that he had seen no signs of cheating, even as he continued to sow doubts about the integrity of the election. “I know the other side, and they are not good,” he said, of Democrats. “But I have not seen that.”

Israel begins fresh strikes near Beirut

The Israeli military launched new waves of airstrikes near the Lebanese capital yesterday, one of which landed near the country’s largest government hospital. At least four people were killed, including a child, and more than 20 were injured in the attack, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. Read the latest updates.

Israel’s offensive has overwhelmed Lebanon’s health system in recent weeks, and it has struck hospitals, clinics and ambulances, according to the U.N. human rights office. Several hospitals have shut down, and dozens of health workers have been killed.

Amos Hochstein, the de facto envoy for the U.S. on the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, said that the situation had “escalated out of control,” and he called for the revival of a 2006 U.N. resolution that could pull the region back from the brink amid the widening war in Lebanon. The U.S. secretary of state, Antony Blinken, was set to depart last night for another trip to the Middle East.

In Gaza: The killing of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, has raised hopes that it could help pave the way for the eventual creation of a Palestinian state. In many ways, my colleague Steven Erlanger writes in this analysis, that goal seems further away than ever.

Related: The Israeli authorities said that they had dismantled a spy network made up of seven Israelis who had been gathering intelligence for Iran.

A woman in a tan coat next to ballot boxes raises an arm in front of a crowd of photographers.

President Maia Sandu of Moldova casting her ballot on Sunday. Vadim Ghirda/Associated Press

A narrow victory for pro-Europe Moldovans

A referendum in Moldova that would amend the Constitution to lock in alignment with Europe rather than Russia narrowly passed, with a “Yes” vote of 50.46 percent. The vote was closely watched by Russia, the E.U. and the U.S., and the results highlighted the deep divisions in many formerly Soviet lands.

With 99.8 percent of ballots counted, voters narrowly approved proposed amendments enshrining the “irreversibility” of Moldova’s “European course,” as well as a commitment to seeking future membership in the E.U.

On an unannounced visit to Kyiv, Lloyd Austin, the U.S. defense secretary, pledged support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia, and he said that the Pentagon would send a new $400 million shipment of arms.
In his first lengthy interview since his release, Paul Whelan described life in a labor camp in Russia as “monotonous and filthy.”

MORE TOP NEWS

A woman shouts and gestures as security guards usher her out of the room.

Pool photo by Victoria Jones

Australia: King Charles was heckled by an Indigenous lawmaker during a visit to Parliament in Canberra.
Cuba: The repeated failure of the power grid and the damage caused by a hurricane have frustrated and disheartened Cubans, posing a challenge to the Communist government.
BRICS summit: The gathering of emerging market countries, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, begins today in Kazan, a city in southwest Russia. Here’s what to watch.
Sickle cell: The first patient of a new gene therapy for the condition, a 12-year-old boy, left the hospital in Washington. He feels fortunate, he said, but the treatment has been brutal.
U.S.: Seven people died when a gangway collapsed at a ferry dock on a Georgia island.
Commodities: Researchers found a vast trove of lithium in Arkansas — perhaps enough to meet global demand for the metal, which is used in batteries.

Business: Disney said that it would name a new chief executive in early 2026 to replace Bob Iger, who intends to retire at the end of that year.
Drugs: A dangerous powder called pink cocaine, made up of a revolving group of drugs, has become increasingly popular, experts say.
Pop music: Sean Combs, who is facing federal sex trafficking charges, has been dropped from many radio station playlists. At the same time, his streaming numbers are growing.
Media industry: Olivia Nuzzi, a star political writer, has parted ways with New York magazine after a scandal related to her relationship with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

SPORTS NEWS

Formula 1: Ferrari’s 1-2 finish at the U.S. Grand Prix has opened up the constructors title race.
Soccer: A group of female professional players called on FIFA to end its partnership with the Saudi oil company Aramco.
Tennis: How Aryna Sabalenka overtook Iga Swiatek at the top of the WTA rankings.
Golf: Tiger Woods is expected to play competitive golf again in January, making his TGL debut after undergoing back surgery last month.

MORNING READ

Jill Stein, seated, is interviewed. Microphones are held near her.

Nic Antaya for The New York Times

People in Jill Stein’s life have implored her to abandon her bid for president, lest she throw the election to Donald Trump. Yet she’s on the ballot in almost every critical state.

Stein dismisses her critics’ concerns, noting — accurately enough — that some of her supporters would never back Democrats anyway. “Forget the lesser evil,” she likes to counter. “Fight for the greater good.”

Lives lived: Paul Di’Anno, the onetime frontman of the heavy metal band Iron Maiden, has died at his home in Salisbury, England. He was 66.

CONVERSATION STARTERS

Print isn’t dead: This Florida billionaire wants to become a newspaper baron.
No worries if not: There are many reasons people resort to “people pleasing” — but experts say setting boundaries is crucial to prioritizing your needs.
Selling a haunted house: How real estate agents approach a spooky sale.
Money, sex and activism: Mia Khalifa talked to us about her choice to leverage her past as an adult-film actress.

ARTS AND IDEAS

People stand near a gravesite, which is covered in flowers. Nestled on the flowers is a black-and-white picture of a man.

Nanna Heitmann for The New York Times

Navalny speaks from the grave

In the last years of his life in an Arctic penal colony, Aleksei Navalny’s diary entries were by turns introspective and blunt. “I knew from the outset that I would be imprisoned for life — either the rest of my life or until the end of the life of this regime,” the Russian dissident wro