Tuesday Briefing: Two weeks until Election Day

October 22, 2024

	By Gaya Gupta

Good morning. We’re covering the U.S. campaign two weeks from Election Day and the latest on the conflict in Lebanon.

Plus, Aleksei Navalny’s memoir.

Two side-by-side images. Vice President Kamala Harris is on the left, and Donald Trump is on the right.

Erin Schaff for The New York Times, Nicole Craine for The New York Times

The U.S. presidential race is essentially tied

With two weeks to go before the Nov. 5 vote, polls show Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are running neck and neck, Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, writes.

Harris and Trump are essentially tied in The Times’s polling average of five critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Neither candidate is ahead by a single point, and in several of these states neither candidate is ahead by more than two-tenths of a percentage point.

Elections, however, aren’t decided by the polls; they’re decided by the voters. A lead or a deficit of 0.2 points in a polling average is not the difference between winning or losing, even though it may feel like it. Read the rest of Nate’s analysis here.

The last-ditch hunt for undecided voters: Both campaigns are desperately hunting for the few voters still up for grabs. Both camps think many of them are younger, Black or Latino. The Harris team is also eyeing white, college-educated women.

The Lebanon conflict is ‘out of control,’ a U.S. official said

President Biden’s envoy to Lebanon said yesterday that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah had “escalated out of control.”

On a visit to Beirut, the envoy, Amos Hochstein, called for the revival of a U.N. resolution that would require Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon, and for Hezbollah to be disarmed along the countries’ border.

Later, the Israeli military launched new waves of airstrikes near Beirut. At least four people were killed, including a child, and more than 20 injured in an attack near a government hospital, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. Here’s the latest.

Other developments in the Middle East:

The U.S. secretary of state, Antony Blinken, is expected to depart for another trip to the Middle East.
The Israeli authorities said that they have dismantled a spy network made up of seven Israelis who had been gathering intelligence for Iran.
A two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains the goal of the U.S. and the West, but many in the region say it is a remote prospect.

This year’s BRICS summit will be held in Kazan, Russia. Maxim Shipenkov/EPA, via Shutterstock

Russia hosts nations in hopes of eclipsing the West

The BRICS summit — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — begins today in Kazan, a city in southwest Russia. President Vladimir Putin hopes the meeting will show the West that, despite Russia’s global isolation, he still has important economic allies.

What’s at stake: Russia hopes to bring countries into a coalition to form a new world order not dominated by the West. While Putin will be the host, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, will arrive at the summit in a commanding position. Analysts said they would be watching how Xi interacts with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, who has drawn closer to the U.S. in recent years. Here’s what else to watch.

MORE TOP NEWS

A woman in a tan coat next to ballot boxes raises an arm in front of a crowd of photographers.

President Maia Sandu of Moldova prepared to cast her vote on Sunday. Vadim Ghirda/Associated Press

Moldova: The country narrowly voted “Yes” to closer ties with Europe instead of Russia, the results of a referendum showed.
Vietnam: The National Assembly approved a new president in a power-sharing arrangement among four leaders to avoid the rise of a single strongman.
Australia: King Charles was heckled by an Indigenous lawmaker during a visit to Parliament in Canberra.
Conservation: Delegates from around the world are in Colombia for what is expected to be the biggest U.N. biodiversity conference in history.
Ukraine: The U.S. defense secretary said the Pentagon would send Kyiv a new $400 million shipment of arms.
Russia: In his first lengthy interview since his release, Paul Whelan described life in a labor camp as “monotonous and filthy.”
New York: The trial of a man accused of fatally choking a homeless man on the subway last year has begun.
Tesla: A Hollywood company sued Elon Musk, accusing him of illegally using imagery from “Blade Runner 2049” to promote Tesla’s new “robotaxi.”
Pakistan: Parliament passed an overhaul of the process for appointing the chief justice, a move that critics said is aimed at reining in the Supreme Court.
Business: Disney said that it would name a new chief executive in early 2026 to replace Bob Iger, who intends to retire at the end of that year.

Sports

Charles Leclerc holds a metal trophy over his head. He is wearing a red jacket and a baseball hat.

The Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc after winning the U.S. Grand Prix. Nick Didlick/Associated Press

Formula 1: Ferrari’s 1-2 finish at the U.S. Grand Prix has further broadened the constructors title race.
Soccer: A group of professional female players called on FIFA to end its partnership with the Saudi oil company Aramco.
Tennis: The Athletic looked at how Aryna Sabalenka overtook Iga Swiatek at the top of the WTA rankings.

MORNING READ

A family of eight standing outside in what appears to be a small courtyard.

The Sani family at home in Kano, Nigeria. Yagazie Emezi for The New York Times

A comedy-drama television show called “Gidan Badamasi” has struck a chord with families across northern Nigeria for asking the question: how many children is too many?

Attitudes about family size are shifting across Africa. A protracted baby boom has produced the world’s youngest, fastest-growing population, opening up potential benefits for global influence and economic growth. But it also creates a challenge to educate and employ all of these young people.

Lives lived: Fethullah Gulen, who was accused of plotting a failed coup against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey in 2016, has died at 83.

CONVERSATION STARTERS

A pop-star whisperer: Daniel Nigro has helped craft huge albums with Chappell Roan and Olivia Rodrigo. What’s the key to his success? Belief.
Studying the dirt of ancient Rome: By learning the secrets of 2,000-year-old cement, researchers are trying to devise greener options.
Money, sex and activism: Mia Khalifa talked to us about her choice to leverage her past as an adult-film actress.

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ARTS AND IDEAS

Yulia Navalnaya, wearing a red dress, stares at the camera with a serious look.

Yulia Navalnaya, Aleksei Navalny’s widow. Caroline Tompkins for The New York Times

Navalny’s prison diaries

On social media, Aleksei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader, often struck a hopeful note about his country’s future. But the journal entries he smuggled out of prison were often blunter. “I will spend the rest of my life in prison and die here,” he wrote.

His reflections were pieced together by his widow, Yulia Navalnaya, in “Patriot,” a posthumous memoir released today in the U.S., eight months after his death at age 47 in a Russian penal colony. The book is laced with Navalny’s trademark wry humor and idealism. But it’s also the account of a husband and father facing reality: He will never be with his family again, Vladimir Putin might silence him, and his fight will have grave consequences for those he loves.

Read our full review.