By Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

Presented by Kidney Care Access Coalition

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

BEYOND NOV. 5 — With just 15 days until the election, we wanted to quickly recommend two reads this morning that deal with what happens after the votes are cast:

— Steven Shepard sits down with ARNON MISHKIN, the 69-year-old "chief nerd" helming the Fox News decision desk for a fifth consecutive presidential election. He talks about the challenges of calling a post-Covid election, his controversial Arizona decision in 2020 and when he expects to make a final call this year.

— On his "Age of Disruption" Substack, BRUCE MEHLMAN walks through the "Nine Week Slog" from Election Day to the final congressional certification of the new president's victory. Click through for a handy guide to how the media, the courts, Congress and a "disinformation deluge" could shape the post-election period.

While Trump world appreciates all that Elon Musk has been doing to try to help the former president's campaign, they’re not exactly counting on his efforts to win. | Michael Swensen/Getty Images

MUSK’S SHADY SWEEPSTAKES — Billionaire tech mogul ELON MUSK is leaving an immense footprint on the 2024 presidential campaign on DONALD TRUMP’s behalf.

He’s poured $75 million into his Trump-supporting America PAC, launched an ambitious get-out-the-vote operation to mobilize Trump voters, turned his social media platform into a hub of pro-Trump sentiment, and is now working his way through the all-important swing state of Pennsylvania stumping for the ex-president.

But his latest political venture — a daily $1 million giveaway through Election Day eligible to people who sign an online petition “supporting the U.S. Constitution” — might well be falling into a familiar pattern for Musk: taking things just a little too far.

From a distance, it looks like a clever sweepstakes-like scheme to potentially juice Trump’s numbers, especially among the cadre of Musk-loving, Trump-curious young men who don’t have a great track record of showing up to vote.

Upon closer inspection, things are more problematic: Federal law plainly bars anyone from paying or accepting money to vote or to register to vote, and some campaign finance experts believe that would include a high-stakes lottery with a voter registration requirement:

“You can’t give something of value to people in exchange for them voting or registering to vote,” campaign finance lawyer BRETT KAPPEL told WaPo. Added UCLA law prof RICK HASEN, to the AP: “The problem is that the only people eligible to participate in this giveaway are the people who are registered to vote. And that makes it illegal.”

Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO called for a law enforcement investigation on NBC’s “Meet the Press” yesterday: “Musk obviously has a right to be able to express his views,” he said. “But when you start flowing this kind of money into politics, I think it raises serious questions that folks may want to take a look at.”

Notably, even Trump appears to be keeping his distance from the scheme. Asked about it Sunday, he said, “I haven’t followed that” — while praising Musk as a “a great man with a great touch and a great feel for what's going on.”

WHY NOW? Consider everything swirling around Musk’s political efforts right now. He’s gone all-in on the MAGA conspiratorial fringe, propping up unfounded theories about hurricane recovery efforts and falsely suggesting Dominion voting machines threw the 2020 election (earning him a brushback from the company that won a $787 million Fox News settlement over similar false allegations).

But Musk is also facing questions about whether his other big-dollar pro-Trump expenditure — his super PAC’s swing-state field blitz — is panning out. The sweepstakes gambit comes amid reports from Reuters and the Guardian that the effort is struggling to meet its door-knocking goals and that there are serious questions about canvassers inflating voter contacts.

Musk is undaunted: PAC officials insisted to Reuters and the Guardian that they are on track to reach their voter-contact goals, and there is no immediate sign Musk is planning to abandon his sweepstakes: He gave out million-dollar checks Saturday and Sunday during stops in Pennsylvania, and his lawyers believe they are in the clear since he is not directly paying voters to register.

THE VIEW FROM INSIDE: So are Musk’s antics worth the headaches? Last night, we called up a pretty darn senior Republican official who is close to the Trump campaign to get a read on how they’re viewing all of this. A few things to note:

1. While Trump world appreciates all that Musk has been doing to try to help the ex-president, they’re not exactly counting on his efforts to win, this person argued. The Trump campaign has its own joint turnout effort with the RNC, as well as field campaigns run by the America First Policy Institute and Turning Point USA. “We’re not depending on him,” the person added. “Nothing was specifically outsourced to him at all.”
   
2. Whatever controversy he courts, they still value Musk as a celebrity surrogate for a campaign that just doesn’t have many. “How many voter minds he’ll change, I don’t know,” the person said. “But … people think it’s cool.” To wit: After he appeared at Trump’s Butler, Pennsylvania rally earlier this month wearing a black MAGA hat , the hat sold out on the campaign’s online store and is now on backorder. "That alone tells us he has real pull,” the person said. (Also not to be discounted: Trump’s magnetic attraction to an ultra-rich, famous person who is lavishing praise and money on him.)
   
3. For all the talk of a Musk-led “Department of Government Efficiency,” few expect him to actually go into a second Trump administration. While there are some reports that Musk could have some sort of unofficial advisory role, some close to Trump are skeptical it will go beyond that. With his considerable foreign business dealings, they don’t think he’d want to pursue any position that would require significant financial disclosures or divestment. “Think about the logic behind it and actually what it takes to go work for the government,” the person said.

Still, we hear Musk has been in touch with Trump transition chief and Cantor Fitzgerald CEO HOWARD LUTNICK — so expect him to have some imprint on a Trump White House.

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.

A message from Kidney Care Access Coalition:

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The Restore Protections for Dialysis Patients Act (S. 5018 and H.R. 6860) is a bipartisan and bicameral bill that will restore protections for dialysis patients and ensure that these patients and their families have a choice in their coverage.

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JUST OUT — “Law enforcement missed ‘pivotal moments’ to engage Trump gunman, House panel finds,” by Jordain Carney: “The Secret Service ‘did not effectively verify responsibilities were understood and being executed,’ and there was no joint meeting between the Secret Service and state and local law enforcement on the day of the rally, according to the report.” Read the House task force’s interim report

THIS, TOO — “Biden to Propose That Insurers Cover Over-the-Counter Birth Control,” by NYT’s Sheryl Gay Stolberg: “The rules would include emergency contraception, a newly approved nonprescription birth control pill, spermicides and condoms and would affect 52 million American women of reproductive age who rely on private health insurance.”

McDONALD TRUMP’S WILD WEEKEND — After a bruising Friday dominated by questions of his physical fitness for office (following our scoop about his team saying he’s “exhausted”), the former president drove the headlines yesterday by showing up to work at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s.

The images of the millionaire former president serving up brown paper bags at the drive-through and getting instructed on how to use the French-fryer went viral. As was his intention.

And while it served as a moment for Trump to look like a man of the people, it also underscored his obsession with Harris’ claim that she worked at McDonald’s while in college (The former president says without evidence that she’s lying.)

“I’ve now worked for 15 minutes more than Kamala,” Trump told reporters from the drive-thru window,per the Philadelphia Inquirer. In fact, as WaPo notes, the whole event was semi-staged: Nobody actually ordered anything, instead receiving whatever he gave them. He worked the fryer for five minutes. And on actual policy substance, Trump dodged a minimum wage question.

It wasn’t the only odd-ball headline for Trump over the weekend …

— After crooning about the size of ARNOLD PALMER’s “unbelievable” penis during a campaign rally Saturday, he also doubled down on his “enemy within” comments. While Speaker MIKE JOHNSON tried to claim on CNN’s “State of the Union” that Trump didn’t mean Democrats, the president clarified later on Fox News that he in fact did. And he named Reps. NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.) and ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) as top targets.

— Trump praised Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN as “a great guy” who’s “respected all over the world” in a rare interview with Al Arabiya’s Nadia Bilbassy-Charters. Trump also said he could bring peace to the Middle East if elected.

— Trump, 78, said he’s “not that close to 80.”

Harris shot back at Trump’s various weekend eyebrow-raisers — and his allegation that she’s a “shit” VP — on MSNBC yesterday, saying Trump lacks decorum and “demeans the office.”

The 30,000-foot view: “For Trump, a Lifetime of Scandals Heads Toward a Moment of Judgment,” by NYT’s Peter Baker: “No major party presidential candidate, much less president, in American history has been accused of wrongdoing so many times.”

To wit: A group called “Survivors for Kamala” is running a full-page ad in the NYT today backing Harris and emphasizing that Trump has been found liable for sexual abuse in court. “He is a proven abuser,” write more than 200 signatories, including seven women who have accused Trump of sexual misconduct. “This is not a matter of opinion; it is fact.” (Trump has denied all wrongdoing.) Other prominent names include ANITA HILL, STEPHANIE GRISHAM, PADMA LAKSHMI and OCTAVIA SPENCER. The group is also hosting a Zoom call this evening. See the ad here

THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Harris is interviewed by NBC’s Hallie Jackson. Trump hosts Latino roundtable in Doral, Florida, attends virtual town hall with ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. and TULSI GABBARD, and holds campaign rally in Greensboro, North Carolina. Biden holds a bilateral meeting with Slovenian PM ROBERT GOLOB at the White House and travels to Concord, New Hampshire, for an event on prescription drug prices. IMF/World Bank annual meetings continue in Washington. … Wednesday: CNN hosts town hall with Harris in Chester Township, Pennsylvania. Trump holds town hall in Zebulon, Georgia, and rally in Duluth, Georgia. … Thursday: Harris and BARACK OBAMA hold rally in Atlanta. Trump appears at Turning Point USA rally in Las Vegas. Final FEC filing deadline for presidential and congressional campaigns. G20 finance and central banking leaders meet in Washington. … Friday: Biden delivers remarks on tribal issues at the Gila River Indian Community in Arizona. … Saturday: Harris and MICHELLE OBAMA hold rally in Michigan. … Sunday: Trump holds rally at Madison Square Garden in NYC.

A message from Kidney Care Access Coalition:

The Restore Protections for Dialysis Patients Act will right a wrong and ensure dialysis patients and their families aren’t forced off their health insurance. https://www.kidneycareaccess.org/

On the Hill

The Senate and the House are out.

What we’re watching … As we get closer to Election Day, Speaker Johnson is coming under growing scrutiny for how he might handle a contested election result, given his lead role four years ago in questioning Biden’s victory. Among those raising alarms has been former Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.), who said on last week’s “Meet the Press” that she did “not have faith that Mike Johnson will fulfill his constitutional obligations” under similar circumstances this election. That, Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke scoops, prompted Johnson to text Cheney, telling her “how disappointed I was in that, to make things personal.” That led to a back-and-forth between the two and this statement from Cheney: “If Trump is somehow elected, neither Mike nor anyone else will be able to control him.”

At the White House

Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will speak at a national arts and humanities reception in the East Room at 5:30 p.m.

On the trail

Trump will hold a rally in Greenville, North Carolina, at 3 p.m.

Harris will hold campaign events in Malvern, Pennsylvania, at 11:40 a.m.; in Birmingham, Michigan, at 4:10 p.m.; and in Brookfield, Wisconsin, at 8 p.m. Eastern. She’ll return to D.C. at night.

Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ is in NYC to go on “The View” live at 11 a.m., take part in a Harris Victory Fund meeting and speak at a reception in the evening. His “Daily Show” interview will air tonight.

For the first time ever, Democrats are launching an ad campaign against a third-party candidate (Jill Stein) over the coming weeks. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo

SPOILER ALERT — One of the central mysteries of this election has been to what extent the left will defect from Democrats, potentially costing Harris the election with votes for JILL STEIN or CORNEL WEST. Stein is far from concerned about that, NYT’s Matt Flegenheimer captures in a lengthy and dishy profile. For the first time ever, Democrats are launching an ad campaign against a third-party candidate (Stein) over the coming weeks. And even Stein’s own family and friends tell the Times they don’t support her and urged her not to run. Stein, whose “bid can feel precision-engineered to damage Ms. Harris with key subgroups,” pooh-poohs what she calls the “spoiler mythology” and places the blame squarely on Democrats.

On college campuses, there are some signs that the left-wing protest movement has quieted from its peak when Biden was in the race — but even a small number of defections from Dems could prove pivotal in a close election.

In East Lansing, Zack Stanton reports for POLITICO Magazine that Michigan State student activists furious about the Israel-Hamas war are torn between demanding more from Harris and stopping Trump. In Chapel Hill, WSJ’s Jimmy Vielkind and Cam Pollack find that many pro-Palestinian protesters at the University of North Carolina are nonetheless weighing other issues in their vote, especially abortion rights. But liberal groups are warning that some undecided voters of color still don’t feel like they know enough to be convinced for Harris — and may leave the top of the ticket blank, AP’s Ayanna Alexander reports.

CASH DASH — Harris’ campaign brought in a whopping $222 million in September, per Jessica Piper. That’s more than three times Trump’s fundraising total for the month. She also way outspent him. Harris went into October with $187 million on hand. … Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ raised another $2.4 million yesterday in Boston, per Lisa Kashinsky. … TIM MELLON gave an additional $25 million to MAGA Inc., per CNN’s David Wright.

RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE

DEMOCRACY WATCH — “Nevada’s ‘swingiest’ county emerges as key battleground in election certification fight,” by ABC’s Lucien Bruggeman, James Hill, Evan Simon, Jenny Wagnon Courts and Laura Romero: “In Washoe County, two members of the county board of commissioners have emerged as symbols of the broader dispute over vote certification: ALEXIS HILL, the Democratic chair of the board, and MICHAEL CLARK, a Republican commissioner. … [E]lection officials say they are preparing for any possible challenge.”

KEEPING HER DISTANCE — Harris and Biden aren’t planning to campaign together, as he works to support her behind the scenes instead, NBC’s Carol Lee, Monica Alba, Natasha Korecki and Kristen Welker report.

THE DECIDERS — “I spent 3 days in the ‘blue wall’ states. Here’s what voters told me,” by the L.A. Times’ Noah Bierman in Racine, Wisconsin: “It’s hard to believe … that anyone would be left undecided … Yet there they were, surprisingly easy to find, drinking lattes at a strip mall Starbucks, browsing magazines at Barnes & Noble and eating eggs with their spouses at a pancake restaurant. Some were … waiting on family meetings or a final round of online research. Others were hoping for inspiration on the drive to the precinct on Nov. 5.”

ON THE TRAIL — Harris celebrated her 60th birthday in Georgia, where she campaigned in churches for faith-based voters, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Ernie Suggs and Greg Bluestein report. STEVIE WONDER sang her “Happy Birthday.”

THE EARLY VOTE — The vast majority of people who have already voted in Pennsylvania are repeat voters, indicating that the most engaged voters are those chiming in early, Jessica Piper reports.

RACE FOR THE SENATE

IF YOU CAN’T BEAT ’EM, JOIN ’EM — “The GOP has been using a campaign finance loophole to save on TV ads. Now Dems are getting in on it,” by Madison Fernandez

CURTIS BASHAW’S UPHILL BATTLE — “The Republican who wants to be NJ’s next senator has a familiar problem: Donald Trump,” by Matt Friedman

RACE FOR THE HOUSE

Democrat Tony Vargas hopes that the top-of-the-ticket tailwinds will lift him against a moderate incumbent. | Rebecca S. Gratz/AP Photo

OMAHA SPOTLIGHT — It’s not just the single electoral vote: Nebraska’s biggest city is also home to one of the most consequential House races, where GOP Rep. DON BACON is trying to outrun his district’s shift toward Harris, NYT’s Jazmine Ulloa reports. Democrat TONY VARGAS hopes that the top-of-the-ticket tailwinds will lift him against a moderate incumbent who’s proven impossible for Dems to dislodge year after year.

RACE FOR THE STATES

INTERESTING HYPOTHETICAL — What happens if Arizona and/or Nebraska voters pass both anti-abortion and pro-abortion-rights referendums that are competing on the ballot? AP’s David Lieb reports that generally, the one with more votes would prevail — but the details could be subject to legal battles.

POLL POSITION

WHERE’S THE BEEF? — Steve Shepard notes a remarkable situation: This weekend saw zero high-quality national or swing-state public polls released. The “striking lack of data” all month, as polling gets harder and more expensive, leaves us more in the dark about a race with seemingly razor-thin margins.

National: Trump +2, per TIPP.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

Paul Whelan said FSB agents told him that his arrest was simply a leverage move to get prominent Russian criminals freed. | Eric Gay/AP Photo

PAUL WHELAN SPEAKS — The American formerly detained in Russia opened up about his experiences for the first time in interviews with CBS’ Margaret Brennan and NBC’s Andrea Mitchell. Whelan came home in August thanks to a prisoner swap, six years after he was first arrested in Russia on trumped-up charges. He said his exclusion from an earlier deal to free BRITTNEY GRINER was a “devastating” low point while he was stuck in a prison camp, along with his exclusion from the earlier deal that sent TREVOR REED home. And he called his former employer, BorgWarner — which laid him off while he was detained — “un-American” for continuing to operate in Russia and not supporting his release.

Whelan said FSB agents told him that his arrest was simply a leverage move to get prominent Russian criminals like VIKTOR BOUT and MARIA BUTINA freed. He also said “he believes he was targeted,” per CBS, as an acquaintance gave him a flash drive right before Russia detained him. But through the long years in Russia, Whelan said, he sang “The Star-Spangled Banner” every morning — and still does.

A message from Kidney Care Access Coalition:

CONGRESS

PAGING KAMPALA — “Grassley Cuts Off Uganda After Passage of ‘Kill the Gays’ Law,” by Jonathan Larsen: “One year after Uganda passed its LGBTQ+ death penalty, Sen. CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-IA), is no longer in touch with the Ugandan government, his office says. It’s unclear when Grassley severed ties, but his connections to Uganda — and to the U.S. prayer breakfast group that nurtured the bill’s authors — were formed decades ago.”

MEDIAWATCH

MUCK READ — “Who’s Mailing the Catholic Tribune? It’s Not the Church, It’s Partisan Media,” by ProPublica’s Jennifer Smith Richards and Megan O’Matz: “ProPublica has traced these mass-mailed newspapers to a ‘pink slime’ network known for misinformation and its financial ties to right-wing super PACs and billionaires.”

LOOK WHO’S BACK — “How Democrats are helping rest