In today’s edition: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stumps for El-Sayed in Michigan, and doubts grow over U͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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October 15, 2026
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  1. Trump defends diesel deal
  2. Meta scrutinized on credits
  3. Financial Services scuffle
  4. AOC on the trail
  5. PAC boosts El-Sayed
  6. Europe backs Ukraine
  7. GOP sours on Pentagon, DHS

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1

Trump doubles down on Russia diesel deal

President Donald Trump
Evan Vucci/Reuters

President Donald Trump is pushing ahead with his deal to import Russian diesel over his party’s growing complaints about boosting President Vladimir Putin, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott, Eleanor Mueller, and Burgess Everett report. “The president’s main priority and commitment is to the American people and to help lower costs for the American people, and he’s doing that,” a White House official said. “The president has not shifted his stance on it.” Trump caused an intraparty furor earlier this month by announcing that Russia will “immediately” export more than 300,000 tons of diesel in an effort to ease fuel price spikes that have hurt Republican candidates on the midterm campaign trail. The agreement completes a trio of economic moves politically toxic to swing-state Republicans, joining his bids to boost beef imports and crack down on Canadian ones.

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2

Meta data center credits draw scrutiny

Donald Trump and Mark Zuckerberg
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

A bipartisan group of House lawmakers is raising concerns with the Treasury Department about reports that Meta is claiming a research tax credit for its data center buildout, according to a letter shared first with Semafor. “We are concerned by Meta’s apparent position that expenditures associated with its massive data-center buildout qualify for the research credit,” wrote Reps. Jimmy Panetta, D-Calif., Greg Steube, R-Fla., Mike Thompson, D-Calif., and Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., along with two dozen other lawmakers. It’s the latest sign of Congress responding to widespread voter backlash to the AI buildout. The lawmakers argue that allowing the tax credit to be used for data center development and construction would “significantly expand the research credit beyond its intended purpose.” Meta spokesperson Andy Stone said that the new AI-optimized data centers “require extensive testing and experimentation that cannot be simulated in order to get the design and build right. This is precisely the kind of domestic investment Congress encouraged when it established these tax incentives decades ago.”

— Nicholas Wu

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3

Jeffries neutral in Financial Services clash

Collage: Rep Sean Casten and Rep. Maxine Waters
Rep. Sean Casten and Rep. Maxine Waters. Jonathan Ernst/Kylie Cooper/Reuters.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Democratic leadership are taking a hands-off approach to Illinois Rep. Sean Casten’s bid to replace California Rep. Maxine Waters as Financial Services Committee ranking member, multiple people familiar with the talks told Semafor. That neutral stance has allowed Casten — and other Democrats seeking to challenge top-ranking committee leaders — to quietly advance their efforts even with lawmakers away from Washington. Democratic leaders are focused on the midterms, and their current stance is the same tack they took two years ago, when another group of Democrats challenged ranking members amid anxiety about their caucus’ ability to rein in Trump. Casten, 54, recently began soliciting support to unseat Waters, 88, as his panel’s top Democrat next Congress. Waters is poised to chair the committee — and helm oversight of the administration’s handling of cryptocurrency, the Federal Reserve, and more — if Democrats take the majority.

— Nicholas Wu and Eleanor Mueller

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4

AOC makes case for El-Sayed in Michigan

Chart showing voting preference in the Michigan Senate race
Jim Vondruska/Reuters

In a show of progressive strength, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., is hitting the trail in Michigan for campaign stops with Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed. She’ll join El-Sayed for town halls in redder, more rural parts of the state’s Upper Peninsula today. The El-Sayed campaign is deploying progressives to boost turnout, with Ocasio-Cortez set to hold some events Friday without El-Sayed, including a “Latinos for Abdul” rally in Detroit. In addition to drawing crowds in support of El-Sayed, the events also offer a testing ground for Ocasio-Cortez’s progressive messaging as she weighs a run for higher office — importantly, in a state that’s now moved to the front of the Democratic presidential primary calendar. Ocasio-Cortez’s fellow “Squad” member, Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass., is returning to Michigan for events this weekend, too. Both lawmakers stumped for El-Sayed during the Senate primary.

— Nicholas Wu

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5

Pro-Gaza PAC spends in MI for El-Sayed

Screenshot
Screenshot of ad

The pro-Palestine super PAC American Priorities is moving back into Michigan, debuting a new ad for El-Sayed as part of a $500,000 buy. “AIPAC is now spending to elect Republican Mike Rogers,” said American Priorities spokesman Greg Krieg, calling it a “right-wing organization committed to keeping the GOP in control of the Senate” that backs a foreign policy “most Americans reject.” American Priorities previously spent nearly $700,000 to help El-Sayed win his August primary over the more moderate Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., who was backed by pro-Israel groups. The latest ad doesn’t mention Israel but highlights economic issues and brands Rogers as a backer of “Trump’s wars.” Rogers, who called for a quick end to the Iran war last month, has accused El-Sayed of focusing on Palestine over Detroit.

— David Weigel

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6

Europe backs Ukraine as US doubts grow

Andy Burnham and Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Henry Nicholls/Pool via Reuters

European leaders are meeting in Brussels today as fears rise across the Atlantic about US support for Ukraine faltering. In an interview with the Financial Times, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pledged to restart strikes against Russian oil refineries over what he said was the US withdrawal of intelligence support for Kyiv, which the Trump administration has been actively discussing. Ukraine also accused Elon Musk’s Starlink of limiting its internet services, moves that would collectively hurt Kyiv’s efforts on the battlefield. Amid all this, the EU is redoubling its support for Ukraine, while the UK promised yesterday to hasten economic and military help. But there’s only so much that the Europeans can do, and any decline in US intelligence or weapons support would be felt. The EU meeting over the next two days will also focus on the bloc’s long-term budget.

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7

Cabinet agencies see declining GOP support

Chart showing how Americans rate the performance of the following departments

Americans’ perceptions of several Cabinet agencies are on the decline, as the Trump administration fights off controversies surrounding its immigration enforcement and foreign policy. Forty percent of US adults polled by Gallup view the Pentagon favorably, down eight points from last year, while 36% have a positive perception of the Department of Homeland Security, down six points. Both agencies have seen a notable decline in Republican support. Only 27% of Americans view both the State and Justice departments positively, and while Republicans’ approval of those departments has held relatively steady, it’s also below 50%. But it’s not all bad news for the federal government: DHS is still viewed more favorably today than it was in 2024 at the end of the Biden administration, and several agencies, like the VA and FEMA, are viewed more positively than a year ago. The FDA and CDC received the lowest favorability ratings.

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Views

Dems see Trump’s Ohio advantage eroding

 
David Weigel
David Weigel
 

Toward the end of Monday night’s MAGA rally, Ohio Sen. Jon Husted thanked Trump for making his state so much easier for Republicans to win. Since 2016, Youngstown has become the first stop on what media critics derided as “Trump voter safaris,” journeys into the working-class counties that had never voted Republican until he showed up. Husted’s claim of a permanently red state, however, isn’t adding up for Democrats: As soon as I arrived this week, they insisted that MAGA’s advance was over. Democrats say Republicans are making voters angry with their handling of the economy and the Middle East, so the culture-war politicking that worked for a decade won’t be as potent in November. “People aren’t buying that again because they’ve realized you can’t deposit culture war into your bank account,” said Chris Anderson, the chairman of the Mahoning County Democrats.

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