1. Media antitrust probe’s origins
2. Spoiler campaign
3. Rate hike worries rise
4. Houthi attacks
5. Democrats’ election oversight

Retirees will get $75 more a month in Social Security payments next year to account for inflation.

White House played central role in antitrust probe of TV networks

The White House played a central role in the Justice Department’s antitrust investigation into major TV networks’ temporary suspension of pooled coverage of the president, three people familiar with the matter told Semafor’s Shelby Talcott and Ashley Gold. While the probe is progressing, some inside the DOJ are concerned about its legal merits. Two former DOJ officials said that the First Amendment likely protects networks that suspended pool participation after the White House barred three news outlets. Two of the people familiar with the matter suggested that the idea of a DOJ antitrust inquiry was first discussed inside the White House. A third described the White House-DOJ interplay as a “distinction [without] a difference.” A DOJ official disputed that the White House first raised the idea, saying that “seasoned attorneys within the Justice Department, including the antitrust division, first discussed this.”

Why one spoiler candidate is now trying to replicate his work nationwide

There’s a nationwide campaign underway to spoil the Senate GOP’s majority, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. Aaron Day, a New Hampshire man whose campaign cost Kelly Ayotte her Senate seat a decade ago, is trying for a sequel — on a bigger scale. Day told Semafor his Stark Freedom PAC is running AI ads in eight states aimed at boosting Libertarian or third-party candidates by just enough to cost the GOP seats in places like Texas, Iowa, and New Hampshire. “You call it a spoiler campaign, I call it holding Republicans accountable,” Day said. His website is equally explicit: “We fund the margin. It costs the GOP the Senate.” It’s an unproven strategy, but the third-party threat cost Democrats a presidential race in 2016 and Republicans a Montana Senate seat — twice. Still, Republicans are skeptical he’ll make much of an impact anywhere other than New Hampshire.

Inflation report raises Fed rate-hike odds

Investors are bracing for the Federal Reserve to again hike interest rates after the Labor Department said this morning that consumer prices rose more in September than economists had expected. The inflation report, which comes two weeks before the central bank’s next meeting and three weeks before Election Day, is heightening concerns about the Iran war’s effect on the cost of goods beyond food and energy. With consumer sentiment already nearing a record low, the Trump administration is frantically trying to put a positive spin on the data — and discourage the central bank from acting. Adviser Kevin Hassett told Fox Business it’s a “blip,” while adviser Peter Navarro wrote an editorial on why it proves “the Fed should hold its fire.” All eyes are on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is slated to speak in Bangkok later this week.

— Eleanor Mueller

Houthi strikes raise stakes for Trump

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels are ratcheting up strikes on Saudi Arabia, hitting Aramco’s headquarters yesterday. As the kingdom struggles to fend off the attacks, the Houthis have doubled down on threats against Saudi’s airports and energy infrastructure. President Donald Trump responded on Truth Social, saying the Houthis are “behaving very badly” and accusing them of “purposefully trying to drive up oil prices” ahead of the midterms. While Trump has yet to use American force against the Houthis in this latest round of fighting, he warned that he will “be there after the election, and I will never forget.” But as the escalation continues to spread across the region, it deepens Trump’s political problems: Iran intensified attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, sinking two Emirati cargo ships and threatening to further spike oil prices.

— Lauren Morganbesser

Senate Democrats launch election observer program

Democrats are deploying more than 100 Senate staffers to monitor polling stations nationwide this fall in the first election-observer program in Senate history, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Calif., announced today. The staffers will document potential voter interference, threats against election workers, and problems during vote-counting and certification. The initial plan targets nine states with contested Senate races, including Ohio, Georgia, and Michigan. Schumer told reporters that observers would serve as the Democratic caucus’ “eyes and ears on the ground,” gathering and reporting facts. The plans underscore rising concerns on the left that Trump will attempt to meddle in the vote. The president has endured scrutiny for efforts to exert federal control over mail-in ballots. The Trump administration has said it has no plans to send ICE agents to polling places, but Trump hasn’t ruled it out.

— Lauren Morganbesser

ReflectionAI’s Ioannis Antonoglu thinks intelligence is the new electricity. On this week’s episode of Future Proof, presented by Google Workspace with Gemini, Reed Albergotti sits down with the former Google DeepMind researcher to discuss why he thinks it could take decades before AI becomes fully integrated into the fabric of the economy, the geopolitically-linked open weight AI battle, and how the world will eventually stop worrying and learn to trust AI models, even if it can’t fully understand them.

White House

• President Trump directed his White House counsel to examine allegations that former Kennedy Center leader Ric Grenell mishandled a $5.6 million Kennedy Center donation. — Axios
• The Justice Department appealed a court order allowing CNN, Politico, and MS NOW to retain access to the White House as the lawsuit against Trump plays out.

Foreign Policy

• Ukraine accused Elon Musk’s SpaceX of limiting Starlink services, disrupting military drone missions and complicating battlefield operations.
• The US is sending several hundred Army soldiers to train and conduct exercises with local forces in Latin America, with the first deployment of 600 soldiers to Panama already underway.

Technology

• Eight states sued OpenAI, alleging ChatGPT has encouraged children to harm themselves or others.
• An uncrewed surface vessel deployed with a US aircraft carrier strike group for the first time in US Navy history.

— Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on President Trump’s diesel deal with Russia.

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor

Graph Massara and Lauren Morganbesser, copy editors

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Ashley Gold, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, Nicholas Wu, David Weigel, David Lim