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US threatens to halt Ukraine arms

The US threatened to halt arms sales to Europe for use in Ukraine unless Kyiv stopped striking Russian refineries, the Financial Times reported, accelerating a stunning deterioration in ties between the allies. US President Donald Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — whom Trump called to be ousted — told Axios “was news for me.” US threats over arms and intelligence had “ruin[ed] the trust completely,” a Ukrainian official said. On Friday, Washington announced it would suspend sanctions on Russian diesel, though for Moscow, “the real benefit isn’t the billions of dollars in fresh revenue,” a CNN correspondent wrote. “It is the wedge this deal… drives right through the heart of the Western alliance.”

Europe pledges support for Ukraine

European leaders rushed to back Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the weekend amid a widening rift with the US, though the continent’s support for Kyiv may have an expiration date. Berlin, Brussels, and London pledged further support to Kyiv, even as the push to rearm is imperiled by the rise of far-right European parties, which have tied cost-of-living issues to support for Ukraine: “Financially, we can’t do it anymore,” France’s Marine Le Pen said last month. On Sunday, Andy Burnham became the first British prime minister to allege Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit vote — to “help voters in Germany and France understand that some of this politics is instigated via our enemies,” Burnham told The Rest is Politics podcast.

China to cut hybrid exports to EU

The EU and China reached a deal Friday to reduce China’s shipments of hybrid vehicles to Europe by half, forestalling a damaging trade war but doing little to address Brussels’ broader complaints. The agreement slashes Chinese imports by millions of cars over four years, the EU’s trade commissioner said, calling it “only a first step.” The deal leaves untouched the vast majority of Brussels’ $1 billion-a-day trade deficit with Beijing. Chinese brands accounted for one in four European hybrid sales in August, swamping Europe’s legacy automakers. Volkswagen recently announced 100,000 job cuts. Beijing is playing for time, a Trivium China analyst suggested: “In exchange for reviews, dialogue, and ‘understandings,’ it has conceded little on the structural drivers of the EU’s massive trade deficit.”

Houthi strikes rattle Saudi Arabia

Houthi attacks pounded the Saudi Arabian capital’s airport again Sunday, heightening fears of further disruption to the Gulf’s largest economy one day after the deadliest attack on the kingdom in more than a decade killed 13. The strikes raised the risk of a wider escalation as Saudi Arabia seeks to establish itself as a hub for investment and international travel. Several global events are planned for the coming weeks, but repeated strikes on Riyadh could undermine the kingdom’s ambitions and image of stability. Saudi Arabia’s “confidence appears to be fraying” as a longer conflict looms, writes Semafor’s Gulf editor. “In a war that is as much about economics as explosives, this may be the vulnerability that the Houthis, and Iran, are banking on.”

Russian fuel unlikely to offer relief

President Donald Trump’s deal with Vladimir Putin to suspend sanctions on Russian diesel will fail to significantly impact US fuel prices, experts said, as the president’s economic approval ratings sour before November’s midterm elections. One-quarter of registered voters approve of Trump’s handling of jobs and the economy, a Financial Times poll found, and the Russian supplies “will not have any meaningful domestic US effect,” an expert told The Guardian, adding that Moscow’s damaged refineries would struggle to meet the terms outlined. “The Middle East is much more important,” another analyst said. The head of the International Energy Agency called for members to release more diesel and faster, pointing to a deteriorating security situation in the Gulf: “Current market conditions merit immediate attention.”

Thousands detained in India protests

Indian authorities released the leaders of the Cockroach Janta Party on Sunday, after security forces detained thousands of protesters during massive anti-government demonstrations. The satirical party — which in July forced the resignation of India’s education minister — is at the center of youth-led protests that roiled the Indian capital on Saturday, prompted by what the Cockroaches and others allege was a politically motivated purge of voter rolls designed to benefit Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party. One of the protesters’ chief demands is the resignation of Chief ​Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, but “what started as an anti-Gyanesh movement has now become an anti-Modi movement,” a Delhi journalist argued, adding that the prime minister must now choose between “short-term shows of strength [and] long-term stability.”

Data centers targeted in Russia, Gulf

A Ukrainian drone attack knocked a Russian data center offline Sunday, as data centers emerge as increasingly attractive targets in war. Russia and Ukraine have traded strikes on digital infrastructure in recent weeks, triggering major outages on both sides; Ukrainian strikes also prompted Russian bot traffic to plummet. While such attacks are not unprecedented — Iranian strikes hit data centers in Bahrain and the UAE earlier this year — their fallout reaches far beyond the battlefield, disrupting the services civilians and businesses rely on. “Modern warfare no longer discriminates between military targets and commercial infrastructure,” an analyst for The National Interest wrote, suggesting firms embrace “reasonable self-protection measures” in response.

Josh Lipsky is the chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council and the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. He previously served as an advisor at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a speechwriter to Christine Lagarde.

Nvidia eyes open-weight startup

Nvidia is in talks to acquire or deepen investment in US open-weight startup Reflection AI, the Financial Times reported, as CEO Jensen Huang seeks to cement Nvidia’s dominance and keep regulators at bay. Nvidia has poured billions into the AI economy over the past two years, with Huang championing an open-weight “ecosystem” that the White House hopes can compete with China’s open-source models. While many Americans want stricter AI regulation, Huang has aligned himself with the president’s skepticism of regulatory constraints. A Huang biographer argued that the tech magnate has “engineered” the president to secure “little regulation on AI and freedom to export some of Nvidia’s hardware to China, and whatever else Mr. Huang wants.”

Undersea cables threatened in Red Sea