Washington, DC

1. GOP backstops Kansas
2. Blue state blues
3. Midterm elegy
4. Rate hike odds drop
5. New Cornell investigation

President Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Mobile, Alabama tonight at 7pm.

GOP super PAC pauses spending in N.C., goes up in Kansas

Senate Republicans’ top super PAC is making a tactical change, pausing its ad campaign in North Carolina’s Senate race and launching a new one in Kansas, Semafor’s Burgess Everett scoops. Senate Leadership Fund is plowing seven figures into Kansas to help incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall against Democrat Adam Hamilton. After spending more than $30 million in North Carolina’s Senate race, the super PAC is putting further spending there on hold. A Trump-aligned group also has no further spending on the books past this week either, according to Ad Impact. The move to shore up Marshall and put North Carolina on the back burner reflects a shifting Senate battleground map — and Republican Michael Whatley’s struggles in North Carolina against former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.

Democrats trail in several blue states

Democratic confidence about their expanding midterm map isn’t hitting every state equally — especially not in blue states. Public polling has shown a dead heat in the race for governor of Oregon, where Republican Christine Drazan is waging a rematch against Gov. Tina Kotek, who beat her by just 3.4 points four years ago. In Minnesota, GOP nominee for US Senate is close behind Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who Republicans see as vulnerable to attacks on the state’s multiple welfare fraud investigations — though national Republicans have not invested in the race like they have in other targets. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who endorsed Flanagan over a more moderate Democratic candidate, said this week that he will spend resources to help her. Republican attacks on left-wing politics, which have not moved some numbers in red states, are having an effect in states where progressives have been in charge.

— David Weigel

Politicians have debated gun control for decades without asking the question Malcolm Gladwell asks in his new audiobook: why does America have this problem at all? The American Way of Killing traces the roots of the country’s gun violence epidemic. Listen now.

Vance’s midterm stump speech previews post-Trump GOP

If the vice president delivers a campaign speech, does it make a sound? Since the Republicans’ midterm convention, which didn’t give their party its hoped-for boost, the frontrunner for the next GOP nomination has headlined four rallies for red state Republicans — in Iowa, North Carolina, Texas, and Florida. The content of Vance’s half-hour speeches at campaign rallies are worth watching on their own, to understand how he might run for president — only his third-ever campaign, and what that run signals about Republican politics in a soon to be post-Trump world. The goal for Vance is continuing the 2024 project: A populist, multi-racial Republican Party that burns left-wing ideology out of public life. How can he sell that to voters who worry that they didn’t get the economy they voted for? How would he argue for another four-year lease on MAGA in 2028? We are finding out, in 30-minute bursts.

Jobs data falls short of expectations

Odds that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady next month jumped to nearly 80% on new data that shows a softer labor market than expected. The economy added 29,000 jobs last month, according to the Labor Department, well below the 84,000 analysts had predicted. July and August data was revised downward by 60,000 jobs. As the Fed balances curbing inflation with avoiding damage to the labor market, the weak jobs report likely gives the central bank breathing room to wait and see. The Fed raised rates in September while relying on data that showed a stronger employment picture. The board’s next meeting is one week before the midterm elections, an inopportune time for Chair Kevin Warsh to buck Trump’s preference for rate cuts.

Letitia James opens criminal investigation into Cornell case

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced at a press conference today that she supports closing a “loophole” in state rape law and that state Attorney General Letitia James will investigate a case of alleged gang rape at Cornell University that’s reignited a national conversation about sexual violence. Hochul, a Democrat, called the university police’s handling of the case in 2024 a “failure” and criticized the Tompkins County district attorney for declining to bring charges without interviewing the alleged victim. The district attorney has defended his decision by saying that the behavior described in a statement provided by police was “morally wrong,” but not criminal because the alleged victim, who said she was too inebriated to consent, was not drugged against her will. Hochul wants this element of the law changed. In the meantime, James is running a criminal investigation under current law.

Microdramas have become a multi-billion-dollar industry. And he’s become one of its biggest stars. On this week’s episode of Mixed Signals, actor and producer Kasey Esser joins Max and Ben to explain how a werewolf Romeo-and-Juliet show that shot in just a week for a hundred thousand dollars became a global hit, and what it’s like to translate Chinese scripts for American audiences in real time on set. Plus, how microdramas make all of their money and what’s next for the booming vertical video format.

Watch the latest Mixed Signals now.

White House

• White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles told Attorney General Todd Blanche to move slowly on abortion-related matters before the midterm elections. — The Washington Sun

Congress

• Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., introduced a bill to discourage state agencies from using Flock cameras.

Foreign Policy

• G7 countries agreed to a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of crude oil, after President Trump threatened a diesel export ban if they did not.
• An Emirati official described the attack on a flydubai flight earlier this week as “terrorism.”

Campaigns

• Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is sending $250,000 from his PAC to Democrat Angie Nixon, a progressive running for Senate in Florida.
• Ad makers have spent at least $16 million to create TV spots with AI this cycle. — CNN

Courts

• FBI agents are consulting lawyers on how to respond to bureau directives related to elections. — The Atlantic

Inside the Beltway

• The Kennedy Center Honors ceremony has been moved to Capital One Arena as a battle rages over the venue’s closure.

— Smit Machchhar, flydubai pilot who fought off an attempted hijacker Wednesday.

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor

Graph Massara and Lauren Morganbesser, copy editors

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Ashley Gold, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, Nicholas Wu, David Weigel, David Lim