Washington, DC

1. Big Tech’s balancing act
2. Trump’s Cuba play
3. Lujan Grisham’s 2028 advice
4. Justice’s hard choice
5. Fed watches jobs
6. Flock scrutiny
7. Deportation ruling reaction

PDB: Care group targets Republicans

Trump in Alabama, then Ohio tomorrow … Brazil presidential candidates tied ahead of election … NYT: Russia planning “most powerful blow yet” on Ukraine

AI industry balances Trump and Democrats

Tech executives’ meeting with President Donald Trump, culminating in a “morally binding” accord on AI safety, was largely successful for all involved. But now these same companies have to navigate maintaining ties with the president while placating Democrats who could very well control both houses of Congress next year — not to mention what could be a massively consequential midterm election, fueled by AI anxiety among voters. “It’s also in our self-interest to make sure that people feel that we are actually building things safely and deploying responsibly,” Chris Lehane, OpenAI’s chief global affairs officer, told Semafor, adding that OpenAI’s support for certain state-level AI bills and its hopes for a federal bill will remain the same. “If you’re making cars,” he added, “you’re going to want to make sure the cars are safe, or people aren’t going to buy your cars, whether there are regulations or not.”

Trump tightens chokehold on Cuba

The Trump administration is still eyeing Cuba, tightening travel rules and imposing new restrictions on banking this week in an effort to continue to squeeze the country’s regime. For many in the administration, the strategy toward Cuba remains simple: Wait until it falls. “Watch what he does with Cuba,” Trump recently quipped at the White House while introducing Secretary of State Marco Rubio. It remains to be seen whether that will be enough for Florida Republicans interested in regime change, but don’t be surprised if the US government imposes more restrictions. “The root of Cuba’s issues remains the dictatorship’s blatant kleptocracy and economic mismanagement,” a State Department spokeswoman said. “For a safer and more prosperous hemisphere, we consider all options that will drive economic and political reforms to give the Cuban people a better future.”

— Shelby Talcott

New Mexico Gov.’s advice for candidates

New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham has a message for the potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates who are passing through her state: Focus on the children. Lujan Grisham, a Democrat who’s set to leave office after this year, told Semafor the candidates “absolutely should” be running on universal childcare proposals. Her state has enacted its own universal childcare program, though she acknowledged a national program could be “challenging” without tax increases. “What I would do in that position is make it really clear that you’ll create incentives and grants so that states have real opportunity,” she said. Lujan Grisham said she’d met or spoken with many of the possible presidential aspirants who have visited the state, including Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Their conversations were “less introductory and more policy,” she said.

— Nicholas Wu

Justice may delay governor decision

Sen. Jim Justice, R-W.Va., “may have to” wait until after the midterms to decide on whether to run for his old job as governor — and challenge incumbent Gov. Patrick Morrisey, he told Semafor in an interview this week. The Republican senator said he doesn’t “like jerking people around” and wanted to announce within a couple weeks, but added there’s “too much stuff going on” in the Senate for him to reflect on the choice. “I really wanted to put some time in to really think: Do you really want to do this?” he said. Nonetheless, Justice said he plans to make his decision “really soon.” Most Republican senators think he will challenge Morrisey for his old job. “I love the people in West Virginia, and I don’t know that we’re going the right way,” he said.

— Burgess Everett

Fed awaits key jobs report

The final jobs report before the Federal Reserve’s October meeting — and the last one before the midterms — comes out today, and it’ll help shape the central bank’s next decision on rates. Economists expect the economy added about 94,000 jobs in September; anything more than that could actually increase the likelihood of a rate hike by demonstrating the resilience of the job market following a surprisingly strong August report. While the public grapples with sticky inflation, the job market has remained steady. Further evidence of that emerged this week, with ADP reporting that private-sector employment rose by 90,000 in September, exceeding expectations. Inflation rose only modestly in August, new data showed, seeming to lessen the likelihood of a rate hike in October. Rising prices are complicating Republicans’ efforts to sell their economic agenda ahead of the elections.

FBI pressed on license plate readers

The FBI’s plans to acquire nationwide access to automatic license plate readers face scrutiny from House Democrats, according to a letter shared with Semafor. “The FBI’s plan to obtain direct access to this extensive network of cameras raises the risk of substantial abuses of Americans’ data. The Committee requests information from the FBI to assist its oversight of law enforcement’s use of ALPR data,” wrote Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee subpanel overseeing federal law enforcement. Casar expressed concern that controversial companies like Flock might be among those bidding for the contract, along with Motorola Solutions. Although the FBI is under no obligation to respond to the Democratic-led letter, it sends a signal about future investigations if Democrats win the House majority. Democrats also believe public pushback against surveillance could lead to bipartisan solutions with Republicans.

— Nicholas Wu

Third-country decision ‘devastating:’ lawyer

Immigrant advocates are grappling with the Supreme Court’s decision to allow the Trump administration to move forward with third-country deportations, which will leave the policy in place for months while they wait for the court to rule on it. Trina Realmuto, lead counsel for the plaintiffs that challenged the policy at the National Immigration Litigation Alliance, called it a “devastating result.” She warned migrants could be sent to countries “where they may face persecution, torture, imprisonment, or other grave danger.” The high court will hear oral arguments on the case, but not until December, meaning a decision will come next year. The arrangements have drawn mounting scrutiny, most recently after migrants deported to Equatorial Guinea were held at gunpoint and beaten. Congressional Democrats are vowing to investigate the deportations if they take control of the House or Senate — or both — in November’s midterm elections.

— Adrian Elimian

Debatable: Ratepayer Protection Act

Senate Democrats blocked a House-passed bill designed to address concerns about AI data center power costs this week. Proponents of the bipartisan Ratepayer Protection Act argue that it would shield Americans from rising AI power costs. The bill “ensures large data centers pay for the infrastructure they require while giving states the flexibility to determine what works best for their communities,” said Rep. Gabe Evans, R-Colo., a House sponsor. But Democratic critics say the proposal lacks teeth. Francesca Hsie of the center-left think tank Third Way said the bill would merely encourage states to implement tariffs targeting large-load customers — a direction many are already going in. Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla., another House sponsor, called the bill an “important bipartisan first step” but said “additional, mandatory safeguards” are needed.

— Morgan Chalfant

White House

• At a rally in Oklahoma, President Trump reiterated his promise to give Americans $5,000 each if Republicans maintain control of Congress.
• Envoy Jared Kushner’s private equity company has the largest stake in an Israeli company that invests in arms manufacturers and other businesses involved in Israel’s war in Gaza. — CNN

Congress

• Democrats on the House and Senate foreign affairs panels want to probe Kimberly Guilfoyle’s dealings with a lobbyist in her capacity as US ambassador to Greece. — WSJ
• Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., is introducing measures to keep President Trump from naming an aircraft carrier after himself.
• Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts’ Maine neighbors aren’t happy with his record on the court. — NYT

Outside the Beltway

• New York Gov. Kathy Hochul appointed the state’s attorney general, Letitia James, to investigate a woman’s allegation that she was raped by several men near Cornell University’s campus.
• Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee has suspended executions