Washington, DC

1. GOP economy woes
2. Schumer on midterms
3. Trump’s red-state travel
4. Dems’ Texas hopes
5. Canada branches out

PDB: Brazil trade minister hopes deal with US amounts to ‘full tariff reduction’

Trump in Texas, Oklahoma … Senate Foreign Relations gets update on Venezuela … Ten-year Treasury yields hit 24-year high

Republicans fear being punished on prices

Senate Republicans are leaving Washington to defend their majority — many of them saddled with real fear that their party didn’t do enough to address constituents’ economic concerns before November, Semafor’s Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, and Nicholas Wu report. Despite passing a huge tax-cut law last year, Republicans are fretting they have not demonstrated to voters that they are tackling the high gas prices, stubborn inflation, and sky-high interest rates that threaten their House and Senate majorities come November. “If you’re not worried, you’re living in a cave,” Sen. Jim Justice, R-W.Va., told Semafor. “There’s no question that there’s people out there that are hurting.” The unease with the economy — and voters’ perception of it — is widespread across the Republican Party, with some House and Senate lawmakers wanting to stay to work on cost-of-living issues.

Schumer: Senate battle is ‘50-50’

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer sees the battle for the Senate on a knife’s edge: “It’s 50-50. We’re right on the edge of winning,” he told Semafor’s Burgess Everett in an interview on Wednesday evening. He said he harbors two worries: that Republicans might “steal the election,” and that GOP ad money will drown out Democrats’ message. “All we need is enough to be able to answer the sh*t they’re going to throw at us,” he said. One thing he’s not worried about? President Donald Trump campaigning in Senate battlegrounds. “That itself helps us. But then he always talks about the wrong things. He talks about things people don’t give a damn about.” Senate GOP campaign Chair Tim Scott doesn’t agree with Schumer on basically anything when it comes to the election — except Trump’s outsized effect. “This is his midterm election,” Scott said.

Inside Trump’s red-state travel swing

Trump’s decision to kick off a month of midterm campaign travel with rallies in red states like Oklahoma and Alabama has confounded some Republicans, but those involved in the plans argue there’s a strategy behind them. Both rally sites — Durant, Oklahoma, and Mobile, Alabama — “hit multiple states and media markets” because of their proximity to neighboring states, a Republican official familiar with the strategy said. Trump officials hope to turn out low-propensity voters, particularly in close races that Republicans need to win to keep control of Congress. The Republican official also emphasized that Trump will travel to actual battleground states like Florida, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Michigan. Not everyone in Trump’s orbit is convinced. “I don’t really buy it, but it’s a well thought-out explanation,” one person close to the White House told Semafor. “I think they want big rallies.”

— Shelby Talcott

Democrats’ hopes rise in Texas

Democrats are feeling newly optimistic about Texas, even in deep-red seats. Polls shared with Semafor show Democratic candidates running surprisingly competitively in the 9th and the 10th Congressional Districts. In the 10th, Democrat Caitlin Rourk is polling at 41% to Republican Chris Gober’s 48%, with Trump’s favorability underwater at 50% unfavorable and 47% favorable. Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico is also statistically tied with Republican Ken Paxton in the district, which Trump won by 22 points in 2024. And in the 9th District (also handily carried by Trump), Democrat Leticia Gutierrez is trailing Republican Alex Mealer by six points, with Trump’s favorability negative and the Senate race statistically tied. Still, both Democratic candidates trail the Republicans in fundraising and are looking for more resources. Gober, the former lawyer of Elon Musk’s America PAC, might be able to call for substantial backup.

— Nicholas Wu

Canada dials up trade diversification efforts

As the US hosts G20 trade ministers in Wisconsin, Canada is taking the opportunity to strengthen its ties to other countries. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer reiterated yesterday he is in “fairly frequent contact” with Canadian negotiators like Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, adding that Washington’s “door is always open” amid the countries’ spiraling trade war. But it’s International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu’s job, not LeBlanc’s, to meet with G20 counterparts — and Sidhu is spending his time huddling with officials from the EU and India as Canada prepares to announce a sweeping partnership with the former. Today’s EU talks come after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed Canada become a de facto EU member earlier this month, riling Trump administration officials. The Canadians “will stab you in the back [and] stab you in the front,” Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro said Wednesday.

— Eleanor Mueller

How Dems stopped worrying about gender politics

As they prepared for Republicans to drop another billion dollars’ worth of ads on their heads this summer, Democrats passed around fresh advice on gender politics. A memo from the Transgender Freedom Alliance, based on focus groups and polling in battleground states, warned that Democrats lost ground if they ignored anti-trans attacks — ubiquitous GOP ads about “boys in girls’ sports” and “child sex changes.” The group advised Democrats to respond, then accuse Republicans of being “focused on transgender people instead of helping you.” Right now, as they compete for states that Trump won by double digits, Democrats are feeling great about that guidance. Former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown used it nearly word-for-word for one of his ads: ​​“With everything going on, that’s what they’re talking about?”

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White House

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent settled a dispute with the IRS over a tax maneuver he used as a hedge fund manager. — NYT
• The Federal Housing Finance Agency is slashing the budget of its own watchdog.
• Asked about The New York Times’ report that Texas GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton told supporters that the president’s Texas convention hurt him, President Trump said: “I haven’t heard that.”

Congress

• Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, blocked a measure from fellow Republican Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee that would have allowed people to sue over AI deepfakes.
• Staffers warned Sen. Eric Schmitt, R-Mo., not to rely on text message records that he later used in an unsuccessful attempt to accuse former special counsel Jack Smith of perjury. — MS NOW
• A staff delegation trip to luxury brand offices in Italy and France, to be attended by both Republicans and Democrats, was scuttled after NBC asked about it.

Outside the Beltway

• The CFTC is investigating former Rep. Adam Kinzinger for insider trading after he allegedly placed Kalshi bets on whether he’d be pardoned by former President Joe Biden. — Politico

Campaigns

• In a Vanity Fair sit-down, California Gov. Gavin Newsom inched closer to announcing his widely expected 2028 presidential candidacy.
• OpenAI President Greg Brockman pulled back a planned $25 million donation to a pro-AI super PAC. — NYT
• Former health secretary Xavier Becerra and Fox star Steve Hilton squared off over immigration and President Trump’s policies in California’s only gubernatorial debate.

Polling

• When Americans think of elected leaders, they don’t think of courage: More than half of US adults say they associate elected US government officials least with courageous acts relative to other professions, according to Gallup. First responders, military personnel, nurses, teachers, and journalists all get far higher marks on courageousness.

Business

• A California judge allowed the pending merger of Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount to close.

Economy

• On the sidelines of the G20 trade ministerial, Brazilian Trade Minister Márcio Elias Rosa told reporters through an interpreter that he hopes a pending US-Brazil trade deal results in “full tariff reduction,” Eleanor Mueller reports from Milwaukee.

Courts

• A trade court appeared skeptical of the Trump administration’s legal rationale for its latest round of tariffs.
• Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., sued former special counsel Jack Smith, arguing his Biden-era subpoena of her phone records violated a congressional privilege under the Constitution.
• The Supreme Court cleared the way for Tennessee to execute a woman, Chr