Gulf

1. Trump: Threats and diplomacy
2. Bahrain’s internal tensions
3. ADGM picks up momentum
4. UAE firms’ global energy push
5. $1.3B for Saudi biotech

Saudis celebrate their national day under fire.

Oil falls on diplomatic momentum

The diplomatic push to end the US-Iran war is gaining “momentum,” President Donald Trump said, even as he again threatened to “annihilate” the Islamic Republic if talks fail. Speaking at the UN on Tuesday, he laid out the choice in now-familiar terms: a deal, or “do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival.” At a meeting with Middle Eastern leaders, he quipped that some in the room would “like to see” Iran cease to exist as a nation, before brushing the idea aside and predicting a deal after November’s midterm elections. Republicans are distancing themselves from the unpopular war, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reported.

Markets appear to be pricing in progress after US and Iranian negotiators held indirect talks on Tuesday. Oil extended its multiday slide, dipping below $100 a barrel. Shipping costs, though, still reflect plenty of stress in the market. Moving crude from Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura to China now costs about $63 million per trip, up from $4.5 million prewar. Supertanker day rates have topped $1.2 million, so freight now makes up roughly a fifth of what refiners pay for crude. Even the aging tankers usually used to haul sanctioned Iranian and Russian oil are joining Hormuz shuttle runs, The Wall Street Journal reported.

— Mohammed Sergie

Shia tensions in Bahrain

Tensions between the Bahraini government and Shia opposition groups are raising the risk of instability, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), a Washington-based conflict monitoring group. Bahrain has seen at least 125 protests since a Shia man died in detention in March and 41 Shia clerics accused of conspiring with Iran were arrested in May, ACLED said. Attempts to repress protests risk “triggering a wave of demonstrations that test the government’s ability to maintain order,” the group warned.

Bahrain, which has a large Shia population, has been hit particularly hard by Iranian attacks, and the war’s toll on its economy is adding to social pressures. The country, which has cracked down on expressions of sympathy for Iran, will likely need foreign assistance to shore up its finances, AGBI reported. The government didn’t respond to a request for comment.

— Matthew Martin

Abu Dhabi lands EQT Middle East platform

Stockholm-listed EQT opened an Abu Dhabi office as part of a new Middle East investing platform, a win for the UAE capital’s “business as usual” pitch amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. The $390 billion investment firm has 10 staff in its new ADGM office covering deals and investor relations, and is targeting education, healthcare, and infrastructure investments in the region.

EQT sees opportunity in the succession wave sweeping Gulf family businesses, which, alongside government privatization drives, is creating investment targets, EQT Partner Jimmy Mahtani told Semafor. The firm’s portfolio companies EdgeConneX, a major US data center developer, and Nord Anglia, a schools group already present in the region, see potential for expansion in the region.

The move is another sign of the Gulf’s growing role in attracting global capital. BlackRock will divert up to $100 billion of its international capital deployment to the Middle East, Zawya reported. Some $2.1 trillion in spending is expected in the region by 2030, focused on infrastructure and energy to shore up economies after the Iran war, according to the asset manager.

— Kelsey Warner

Abu Dhabi goes energy shopping

Abu Dhabi firms are hunting energy assets far beyond the Gulf. ADNOC’s investment arm XRG is in talks with PetroChina, which has been sounding out buyers for its 15% stake in a Shell-led LNG Canada export project, Bloomberg reported. Separately, Abu Dhabi-listed International Holding Company, chaired by national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, is reportedly leading the US government-backed consortium for Lukoil’s international assets, and Qatar’s Al-Khayyat family will have a smaller stake, according to the Financial Times. The war has strengthened the case for an international expansion that was years in the making. With Hormuz traffic disrupted, external supplies help Gulf producers meet customer demand and benefit from higher prices. XRG recently bought a 32% stake in Argentine gas blocks feeding the country’s first LNG export terminal, as well as stakes in Texas’ Rio Grande LNG and Mozambique’s Rovuma project.

Saudi Arabia’s $1.3 billion biotech push

Saudi Arabia announced $1.3 billion in biotech deals following a Riyadh summit last week, part of its push to become a global hub for the industry by 2040. They include a $130 million vaccine manufacturing plant that would be the Gulf’s largest. The deals build on Riyadh’s drive to lure global drugmakers: Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, and Novo have all set up regional headquarters in the capital. Elsewhere in the Gulf, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain are also betting on AI-driven drug discovery.

Saudi Arabia is using the technology to model disease transmission and design treatments, and wants a bigger role in medical research and clinical trials while building up local talent, Bandar Alknawy, CEO of the Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs, told Semafor.

— Matthew Martin

Banking

• National Bank of Egypt won preliminary approval from the UAE central bank to take over Banque Misr’s UAE branches. In August, the US Treasury threatened sanctions on the lender because of its suspected use as a conduit for Iran regime transactions. — Reuters

Culture

• Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea International Film Festival canceled its 2026 edition, which had been scheduled for Dec. 3-12 in Jeddah, citing the logistics of staging an event of its scale. The festival will return in late 2027. — Variety

Deals

• ADIA bought into a portfolio sale worth at least $1 billion by the endowment of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. The portfolio is weighted toward Asia-Pacific and Chinese private markets, and the deal adds to a busy year of secondaries dealmaking for the Abu Dhabi fund. — PEI Secondaries Investor

Tech

• Alibaba will expand its data center footprint in the UAE as part of a global AI infrastructure push that includes its first cloud regions in Finland, Türkiye, and the Netherlands. The Chinese tech giant is targeting a 20-gigawatt global data center network by 2032. — Bloomberg

The Saudi Hawks streak green and white smoke over Jeddah ahead of the kingdom’s 96th National Day. Six months of war have given this year’s celebration a sharper nationalist edge: Just a few days earlier, air defenses were deployed in the same coastal skies.