Bitcoin is closing out its historically weakest month down just 1.5% — a remarkable show of resilience that absorbed a Fed rate hike, a Senate rejection of the Clarity Act, and a Bank of Japan rate increase to a 31-year high, all in the same week. Oil fell Thursday below $105, letting bonds and stocks rally together, and crypto followed. XRP is now within 2% of flashing a golden cross for the first time since August 2024 — a pattern that has preceded gains of up to 1,000% in prior cycles, though never one that lasted 12 months. ETH and XRP ETFs are bleeding money despite both tokens rising. Bitcoin is on track for its first positive quarter in a year. Have a great weekend.
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L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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XRP is on the brink of a golden cross as traders rotate into altcoins
XRP’s 50-day moving average is about 2% below its 200-day — the closest gap since its last golden cross in August 2024 — and a cross above would flash the most widely watched long-term bullish signal in chart analysis. The historical record for XRP is mixed but dramatic: none of its 16 prior golden crosses lasted 12 months before a death cross reversed them, but five of the ten that reached three months produced gains between 85% and over 1,000%. Bitcoin dominance has meanwhile dropped to a one-month low below 59%, signalling a rotation into altcoins; UNI, NEAR and ARB all surged roughly 30% in 24 hours. The FxPro’s Kuptsikevich: “Traders are cautiously shifting focus towards altcoins, although neither the altcoin season index nor market sentiment has yet reached high levels.”
Bitcoin weathered the September storm — and the path of least resistance looks higher
Bitcoin is down just 1.5% in September — far better than its historical average monthly loss of 3% — and is up 32% for the quarter, on track for its first positive quarter since Q3 2025. The week tested bulls hard: Clarity Act failed, the Fed hiked for the first time since 2023, the BOJ raised rates to a 31-year high, and the Dollar Index topped 100. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $74,887 and recovered. Blockware Intelligence’s Mitchell Askew: “Anybody who was going to sell bitcoin based on events like these has already sold. That is incredibly positive — it’s exactly what you tend to see in the later stages of a bottoming process.” Sygnum CIO Fabian Dori added that rising rates can be bullish for bitcoin when they signal “debasement risk and sovereign counterparty risk.” The only caution flag: bitcoin historically falls 2.5% in week 38 of the year.
ETH and XRP ETFs are bleeding money — even as both tokens climb
U.S. spot ether ETFs posted roughly $39 million in outflows Thursday — their third consecutive day of withdrawals after $224 million left Wednesday and $141 million on Tuesday — even as ETH itself rose 2%. XRP funds shed another $5 million. Bitcoin ETFs by contrast attracted $159 million. The standout of the week is zcash: the single U.S. ZEC fund drew nearly $47 million Thursday, pushing its monthly total above $230 million, as zcash itself rose 10% to around $1,488. Falling oil prices let bonds and equities rally together Thursday — the S&P gained about 1%, Nasdaq nearly 2% — and crypto followed. Over the past 30 days ETH funds remain $1.5 billion ahead in cumulative flows and bitcoin nearly $2.5 billion, so the short-term outflows are a wrinkle in an otherwise constructive picture.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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