Washington, DC

1. Senators’ AI push
2. Americans’ AI ask
3. Congress’ legislative sprint
4. New Dem kingmakers
5. Eyes on Warsh
6. WV GOP showdown?
7. Kalshi crackdown

PDB: Health nominee endorses measles shot, bucking Kennedy

Trump in North Carolina … US releases retail sales data … EU chief says Canada could be bloc’s first associate member

Congress’ AI safety window is closing

The window for Congress to act on AI before the midterms is essentially shut — but a few senators are trying. Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., plans today to seek unanimous consent for his bill to require an AI “kill switch” controlled by companies, not the government. Kennedy told Semafor he’s unsure whether anyone will object, but that his idea seems like the only doable one in the near term: An AI bill “would be impossible,” he said — “certainly, before the midterms; likely, during the lame duck.” Meanwhile, Sens. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., and Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., are pushing for a floor vote on their AI safety measure. And OpenAI chief global affairs officer Chris Lehane is pitching a three-pronged regulatory approach: industry safety practices, new legislation, and international leadership on safeguards by the Trump administration. He agreed that nothing is likely to happen before Election Day.

— Burgess Everett and Ashley Gold

Public wants a say in AI development

Democratic and Republican voters agree that the American public should decide the future of AI development, not billionaires in Silicon Valley, according to new polling shared first with Semafor. The poll was commissioned for a new organization launched by Alex Bores, who made a name for himself as a top target of the AI industry in his failed bid for Congress in New York. Though AI ranked last on a list of 13 issues that 1,502 registered voters polled this month said they care about, half said AI is moving too fast and 86% identified lack of regulation as a problem. Only 18% of those polled think the US falling behind China competitively is a problem, a risk President Donald Trump has cited in opposing regulation. The poll’s results, Bores argued, show that “if you show good work on AI, you’re winning over voters.”

— Ashley Gold

Congress eyes final push before midterms

The House is embarking on its last days in session before breaking for the midterms, with a final vote expected today on a bill ratcheting up penalties on Russia. The procedural vote teeing up the final tally on the sanctions bill inflamed intraparty tensions when two purple-district Democrats, Reps. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington and Jared Golden of Maine, once again broke ranks and voted with Republicans. The White House privately reached out to some Democratic lawmakers to sway them on the procedural vote with promises like infrastructure projects, according to one lawmaker. The Senate also advanced the bipartisan Protect College Sports Act, which the chamber will now be focused on for a few days before it passes. There are already rumors of the Senate breaking for campaign season early, but Republican leadership still wants to confirm nominees and complete some regulatory rollbacks.

— Nicholas Wu and Burgess Everett

Meet the Democrats’ 2028 kingmakers

One Democratic lawmaker — Rep. Jim Clyburn — played a pivotal role in the party’s 2020 presidential primary. Which means you’re about to hear a lot more from Reps. Teresa Leger Fernández, Steven Horsford, and Maggie Goodlander — not to mention Sens. Ben Ray Luján, Jacky Rosen, Maggie Hassan, and more, as Semafor’s Nicholas Wu and Burgess Everett report. Democrats’ decision to elevate New Mexico to their fourth primary spot in 2028, right after the now-familiar trio of South Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, bestows growing prominence and sway on the party’s congressional delegations from all four states. Lawmakers from states newer to the primary lineup are already preparing to draw attention to what matters to their constituents as they get wooed by presidential aspirants. “I want them to come to New Mexico and look at the issues that we face,” said Fernández.

Warsh faces the music

Kevin Warsh faces the biggest moment of his short tenure as Federal Reserve chairman today, as he prepares to deliver remarks announcing what’s widely expected to be a quarter-point interest rate hike. It would represent the first time the Fed has raised interest rates since 2023 — and a direct challenge to Trump’s repeated demands that the central bank lower borrowing costs. With Warsh’s credibility on the line, the White House is trying to telegraph a hands-off approach. “We’re going to respect the process and understand that he is doing what he and the committee think is correct,” White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on CNBC yesterday. But Trump isn’t known to keep quiet when he feels he’s been wronged. Keep an eye on Truth Social, as well as his campaign remarks in North Carolina this evening.

Justice threatens GOP showdown in WV

Sen. Jim Justice is getting the itch, and it could set up a battle of GOP titans, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. The West Virginia Republican is considering a run for his old job as governor in 2028, which would potentially set up a race between him and incumbent Gov. Patrick Morrisey. Justice told Semafor he’s “sure thinking about it” before quickly interjecting that he loves “what I’m doing here” in the Senate. He also jabbed at Morrisey but insisted he wants the governor to be successful: “Gov. Morrisey has a more difficult time bonding with people and everything, but beyond that, I want him to do great, I really do. I’m not in a food fight at all.” A Morrisey ally shot back, telling Semafor that Justice has myriad vulnerabilities and hasn’t had to win a tough GOP primary against someone like the incumbent governor.

Kalshi told to scrap AI price tracker

The Commerce Department last month ordered Kalshi to take down one of its products tracking the price of AI compute, the crucial power from data centers that’s driving the artificial intelligence boom, Semafor’s Reed Albergotti and Liz Hoffman scooped. Commerce officials cited national security concerns when they told Kalshi to unpublish its AI-compute futures curve, according to people familiar with the matter. The product pulls together data from several markets that allow users to bet on the cost to rent Nvidia chips to create an overall picture of where AI compute costs are heading. Kalshi quietly complied, though many underlying markets remain open for trading. A Commerce spokesperson denied the reporting, saying the department “has never once asked Kalshi to take down this market or any other markets.”

Blindspot: Pennies and stocks

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets.

What the Left isn’t reading: The House voted unanimously to eliminate the penny, after President Trump stopped production of the one-cent coin last year.

What the Right isn’t reading: Since his second inauguration, Trump has made more securities trades than all of Congress combined, Bloomberg reports.

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White House

• Federal employees were paid $9.5 billion not to work amid a flurry of resignation deferral agreements during the Department of Government Efficiency’s headcount-slashing campaign last year, per the Government Accountability Office.

Congress

• The House voted 220-204 to approve a war powers resolution related to the Iran conflict, with seven Republicans joining all Democrats.
• The House Oversight Committee voted to hold investor Leon Black in contempt after he skipped a deposition related to his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
• Asked about a Washington Examiner report that he attended a Fox News retreat over the summer, Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., insisted he does not plan to switch parties.

Campaigns

• Incumbent Sen. Chris Coons easily won the Democratic Senate primary in Delaware.
• President Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, is warning Republicans to avoid statements of unqualified support for data center construction. — Axios