Good morning. We have officially entered a new chapter in the trade war. In focus today, we’ll be making sense of the much anticipated arrival of Canada’s countertariffs, which started early this morning. Plus, if you have any mental bandwidth remaining, a look at some other news to keep in mind this week.

Investing: Climate remains a major risk for Canada’s institutional investors in a murkier ESG world.

Resources: An oil patch M&A boom signals confidence in Canada’s gas export superpower strategy, and more deals are coming, writes Andrew Willis.

Labour: Two years after Ontario repealed a widely criticized law capping wages for public-service workers, 23,000 OPSEU workers are still waiting for back pay.

Hi, my name is Salmaan Farooqui. I usually report on the housing market for The Globe and Mail, but I’m here to help look ahead while Chris is away. Here are five files I think you should watch closely this week.

Canadian countertariffs take effect

How are things going? Instead of negotiations on the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump released a steady stream of derisive and insulting posts about Canada and floated a ban on Canadian jet-maker Bombardier.

The lack of movement leaves Canada staring down the possibility of further intensification in the trade war with the United States. The Prime Minister’s Office said yesterday that there had been no eleventh hour talks to avert Ottawa’s imposition of countertariffs.

That leaves us here: In a major escalation, Ottawa introduced sweeping countertariffs this morning on 900 wide-ranging items. The federal government is charging up to 50-per-cent levies on everything from steel to furniture. Our countertariffs also come with the risk of further retaliation from the U.S.

Financial markets didn’t react strongly at first when trade talks broke down last month between Canada and the U.S. Economists said at the time that traders were choosing to believe that the new tariffs could be short-lived.

Keep reading:

• Six charts that explain Canada’s incoming countertariffs on U.S. goods
• Stadium developers must navigate tariff-riddled construction costs to give the NFL’s Washington Commanders a new home
• For weary customs brokers, Trump’s ever-changing goalposts on trade have changed the landscape

Oil prices and the war in Iran

The U.S. administration may insist that its conflict in Iran is “not a war” but fighting has ramped up and oil prices are back on the rise. Last week, West Texas Intermediate crude futures were back above US$91 a barrel, reaching some of the highest levels since the war began.

“The combination of renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz has been enough to reprice risk higher, even while actual tanker flows have not collapsed,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, in comments last week.

Inflation owing to rising oil prices is a major election issue. With U.S. midterm elections nearing, analysts have pondered whether Trump will soon change his tune on the war. Which brings us to our next item.

U.S. inflation data

Speaking of inflation, the U.S. Consumer Price Index report will come out this Friday. Last month, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said the central bank might have “more work to do” around inflation. Christopher Waller, one of the Federal Reserve’s governors, has also said the report will largely determine whether he supports an interest rate hike in September or not.

A hot inflation report in the U.S. could have wide-ranging consequences in Canada too. Canadian bond yields are heavily affected by U.S. bonds, and higher inflation and rate hikes in the U.S. could send yields for both countries up.

Canadian bond yields have reached their highest levels in two years since the onset of the trade war, and this could send fixed mortgage rates up in the country.

Statistics Canada reports

Also on Friday, the federal statistics agency will provide an update on national balance sheets for the second quarter of 2026.

Last quarter, mortgage and non-mortgage debt grew by 0.4 per cent, while the net worth of Canadians rose by 1.3 per cent to reach just more than $18.6-trillion.

An RBC report set up expectations for further growth to the net worth of Canadians, driven by growth in stock markets and a stabilizing housing market.