Washington, DC

1. Dems’ fundraising gap
2. New Hampshire primaries
3. Trade war intensifies
4. Ukraine talks revived
5. Iran’s Hormuz grab
6. Crypto gridlock
7. Harassment rules overhaul

PDB: SCOTUS hands GOP an advantage

Trump speaks at Steel Across America event … Rubio in South America … UNGA opens

House Dems face fundraising gap

This fall’s battle for House control is exposing a divide between two types of Democratic candidates, Semafor’s Nicholas Wu reports: prominent battleground hopefuls with well-stocked campaign coffers, and lesser-known challengers who are struggling to keep up with the GOP’s fundraising. Leaders in the first category include Iowa Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott, who had $3.86 million cash on hand on June 30, compared with Republican incumbent Zach Nunn’s $3.6 million. In more competitive swing-district races — the kind that could make the difference between a tiny House Democratic majority and a double-digit-seat advantage — the picture is more dire, thanks to tougher primaries or more recent elevation by the national party. Take Christina Hines in Michigan, who had about $158,000 in the bank at the end of June, nearly one-seventh of Republican Mike Bouchard’s $1.14 million.

Parties hope for decisive wins in N.H.

Both parties are predicting a very close New Hampshire Senate race between Rep. Chris Pappas and former Sen. John E. Sununu — but both men have to win primaries today that will say a lot about their prospects. Pappas is up against progressive Karishma Manzur. The two debated on Friday, and while no one expects Manzur to win, Democrats are watching closely to see if it’s the blowout that Pappas’ internal polling has suggested or the closer contest indicated by a handful of public polls. Sununu must defeat former GOP Sen. Scott Brown, who is a big underdog given Sununu has President Donald Trump’s endorsement and GOP establishment support. The other important factor here is just how late this primary is: Both parties will have under two months to unify before November, a tight timetable in a state with some of the most sophisticated voters in the country.

— Burgess Everett

Canadian tariffs go into force

Canadian tariffs on some $20 billion in US goods take effect today as the countries’ trade war threatens to intensify. The new levies, which officials announced after trade talks imploded last month, mostly mirror those the Trump administration imposed on Canada. US businesses, and the lawmakers who represent districts where they’re located, are lobbying the Trump administration for exemptions to the US tariffs. Trump administration officials, meanwhile, are reviewing potential bans on Canadian goods in the event Ottawa retaliates further, Semafor first reported. In the most recent escalation, Trump said Monday that he would not allow Canadian plane manufacturer Bombardier to sell in the US unless it moves its manufacturing to the country. “If they want our ⁠Market, they must build here, and stop treating America like a ‘piggybank,’” he wrote on Truth Social.

— Eleanor Mueller

Trump looks to revive Ukraine peace talks

The Trump administration is trying to hit the gas on Russia-Ukraine peace talks again, with special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveling to both Kyiv and Moscow over the weekend. But like the Iran war, the Ukraine conflict has no easy way out and instead has shown signs of escalating in recent weeks. Witkoff and Kushner spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday alongside National Security Council, State Department, and Treasury Department officials. A White House official said they discussed “substantive plans for next steps, which will be announced in the coming weeks.” The two then traveled to Kyiv to sit down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, their first visit to the Ukrainian capital in Trump’s second term. The talks could be a first step in restarting peace talks, though there’s skepticism that a resolution can be reached.

— Shelby Talcott

Iran seeks to tighten vice on Hormuz

Iran is attempting to tighten its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, leading to warnings that global oil prices could hit $120 a barrel. Tehran said a deal with Oman on managing control of the strait is days away, a plan that could involve charging fees for ships transiting the crucial waterway. Over the weekend, Iran also said it would implement a “restricted” zone outside the strait and sanction vessels that enter intending to cross. Brent crude neared $100 a barrel Tuesday, following attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on Saudi energy infrastructure and with fighting between the US and Iran ongoing. Speaking on CNN, Energy Secretary Chris Wright was careful about offering definitive predictions but said prices are “more likely to go down than go up.” The US naval blockade is hitting Iran’s oil revenue hard, a test of “Washington’s bet that greater economic pain will force concessions,” The Wall Street Journal wrote.

Republicans: Crypto bill likely to fail

Republican senators are warning that the Senate’s bipartisan cryptocurrency regulatory bill is likely to fail next week when the chamber returns. There’s been little movement on the key Democratic demand, an ethics component governing the president and his family, according to two Democratic aides. “Does not look good right now,” said Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., added that “if there’s no interest in the White House in trying to bridge the gap on the ethics language, it is going to fail.” A failed vote could motivate the crypto industry to spend money in key Senate and House races, but one incumbent senator said it’s far from a top voting issue. “There’s nothing I can do with the crypto bill. Haven’t heard a peep about it. Nobody back home is asking about it,” said Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan.

— Burgess Everett

Congress may overhaul harassment rules

As Congress faces a reckoning over sexual misconduct, House and Senate lawmakers are looking to overhaul the rules in both chambers. Last week, Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández, D-N.M., presented to House Democrats revisions they could make to their internal caucus rules to clamp down on sexual harassment. She’s part of a bipartisan group with Rep. Kat Cammack, R-Fla., that’s working to also amend the whole House’s rules. And on the Senate side, Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., has been consulting other offices in both chambers on possible reforms, according to a Schiff aide. Lawmakers have been eyeing changes like prohibiting lawmakers from dating staff members, updating reporting systems and retaliation protections, and increasing educational and training resources. Lawmakers have pressed for action amid misconduct allegations against several House lawmakers, including Rep. Chuck Edwards, R-N.C., who was censured last week.

— Nicholas Wu and Burgess Everett

Blindspot: Voting and wool

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: The Justice Department charged people with voting illegally in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Wisconsin in past elections. 

What the Right isn’t reading: Canadian wool and yarn producers are giving up on the US market. 

On Wednesday, September 16, Rep. Suzanne Bonamici, D-Ore., will join us for the Youth Wellbeing Forum: Building Resilient Generations. As young people are challenged by rising rates of loneliness, anxiety, and depression, we are bringing together experts across technology, healthcare, and policy to examine solutions that can build lasting resilience. Semafor editors will sit down with Jaymes Black, CEO, The Trevor Project; Rep. Kevin Kiley, I-Calif.; Nicole Hockley, Co-Founder & CEO, Sandy Hook Promise; and Dr. Jon Kole, Medical Director and Senior Director of Psychiatry, Headspace, to explore how to build lasting resilience for the next generation.

Washington, DC | September 16 | Request Invite

White House

• President Trump flirted with the idea of renaming New Mexico “New America,” and later posted a map of the US flag superimposed on all of North America.
• The Trump administration removed language criticizing a Confederate memorial that had been located at Arlington National Cemetery. — WaPo
• The administration is drafting a rule that would allow married couples with a stay-at-home parent to collect subsidies for child care. — NYT

Congress

• Reps. Brad Schneider, D-Ill.; Greg Stanton, D-Ariz.; and Steven Horsford, D-Nev., have started privately sounding out their colleagues to be the DCCC chair, according to several people familiar with the situation, as House Democratic leadership machinations start to ramp up ahead of next year. Rep. Lizzie Fletcher, D-Texas, could also be in the mix for DCCC.

Outside the Beltway