Washington, DC

1. Trump’s oil deal
2. DoD resignation fallout
3. Markey wins in MA
4. House to stick around?
5. Sports bill fight
6. AGOA extended
7. YouTube’s ‘ghost creators’
8. Corruption polling

PDB: More GOP beef blowback

Trump meets with travel executives … Iran retaliates against overnight attacks with strikes on US bases in Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan … Fed publishes Beige Book

Obscure Pentagon office in the spotlight

The Trump administration’s deal for a US government stake in a Venezuelan oil company marks the riskiest foray yet for the Defense Department’s little-known Office of Strategic Capital, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller reports. The White House announced this week that the office would take a 35% equity stake in North American Blue Energy Partners, headed by politically wired Venezuelan investor Alejandro Betancourt López, at “no cost to the American taxpayer.” The goal: make Venezuela’s oil fields more attractive to US investors, thus boosting revenue in Caracas while boxing out Chinese and Russian companies. The OSC has already helped procure equity stakes in at least five other companies during President Donald Trump’s second term, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. But the Venezuela deal further stretches the bounds of its mandate — and Democrats are vowing to investigate. This “feels like uncharted territory,” said the Council’s Jon Hillman.

Driscoll’s departure leaves hole at DoD

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll’s resignation raises questions about how the Pentagon shakeup will affect the department’s decision-making. One US official suggested Driscoll’s absence won’t make much of a difference, indicating that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was never inclined to take Driscoll’s advice, anyway. Still, another person familiar with the situation said Hegseth won’t “be able to blame Dan when things go wrong.” Hegseth faces mounting scrutiny as the US becomes further entrenched in the Iran war. Driscoll’s leaving could complicate things for Hegseth on Capitol Hill: Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., said he’s “disappointed” that Driscoll is leaving and has questions about some of the departures. “Where is the leadership at?” Rounds said. “We’ve had some very good generals that are no longer there that we respected.”

— Shelby Talcott and Burgess Everett

House Republicans may stick around

Top House Republicans are tamping down rumors they’ll cut their remaining September session short. They got a surprising assist yesterday after two Democrats helped them clear a procedural vote, opening up the rest of the week for floor votes on other legislation. Republicans are now saying they need to stay in town to get their remaining legislative work done, like the annual defense policy bill. “We’re not leaving early,” said Rep. Mike Simpson, R-Idaho. Any action will likely be limited to must-pass bills: Republicans downplayed the possibility of any measures on AI data centers, despite rising voter concerns over the projects. “It’s something that ought to be debated and discussed, but I don’t know that we can do that between now and the end of the year,” said Simpson. Others are itching to leave.

— Nicholas Wu

Markey wins in Massachusetts

Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey handily won Tuesday’s Democratic primary over Rep. Seth Moulton, as incumbent Democrats held off challengers across the commonwealth. Markey, 80, won nearly every town over the 47-year-old congressman, backed by progressives who saw him as a warrior for their causes against an ambitious politician who might bend under pressure. (Moulton’s November 2024 criticism of his party for not debating the fairness of trans athletes in women’s sports was a sticking point for Markey.) Down the ballot, septuagenarian Reps. Richard Neal and Stephen Lynch survived challenges from much younger Democrats — each of whom got more than 40% of the vote and beat them in the more diverse and progressive parts of their districts.

— David Weigel

Senate Democrats torn on sports bill

After warring with Trump for more than 20 months, Senate Democrats are fractured over whether to strike a deal with him that would reshape college sports, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. The legislation, championed by Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., would formalize so-called NIL rules, which govern student-athletes’ moneymaking abilities while enrolled, and exclude pro athletes from playing, among other things. Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., told Semafor he thinks as many as half of the 47-member Democratic caucus could support the bill, though Minority Leader Chuck Schumer hasn’t staked out a position. But the AFL-CIO, NAACP, and Congressional Black Caucus oppose it, raising questions about its ability to clear the narrowly divided House, much less the upper chamber. “I acknowledge that there’s room for legislation. I don’t think this is it,” said Sen. Chris Murphy, one of the measure’s opponents.

US-Africa trade pact extended

A key US-Africa trade program will be extended for two years when Trump signs the short-term government funding bill passed by the House yesterday. The bill, easily passed in a 370-48 vote, extends the African Growth and Opportunity Act for two more years without modifying it. The development represents an interim win for African governments worried about trade relations with the US under the Trump administration. However, it “does not provide the certainty” that African businesses and governments need for long-term investment and planning, said Oge Onubogu, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Africa Program. “I think the bigger question that African governments and businesses that benefit from AGOA have is, regardless of what administration is in office, what is the US’ long-term economic vision for Africa?” Onubogu asked.

— Adrian Elimian

The rise of ‘ghost creators’ in US politics

Over the last several months, a new generation of YouTube growth-hackers has flooded American politics, reaching millions of viewers with nearly identical, sensationalized videos that take aim at Democrats, Semafor’s Max Tani reports. The videos are presented as laypeople giving straight-to-camera ideological news recaps, but they feature actors paid to read nearly identical scripts laced with misleading claims and outright falsehoods about progressives like New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. Their viewers either haven’t noticed or don’t mind: A single network of interconnected videos affiliated with a growth-hacking company whose founder promises to be the “strongest alternative to paid ads” has garnered well over 45 million views and 90,000 comments on YouTube, plus millions more impressions across social platforms like TikTok. And without “systemic change from all platforms,” the problem looks to get worse, a Newsom spokesman said.

Govt. corruption seen as widespread

The count of Americans who believe that corruption is widespread in government is at its highest point in the last 20 years. Almost nine in 10 Americans say that government corruption is widespread, according to new Gallup polling, an increase of 10 percentage points in the last year. The shift has largely been driven by Democrats: Fifty-seven percent said corruption was common in government during Joe Biden’s last year in office, but that has risen by 34 points since the start of Trump’s second term. More than eight in 10 Republicans agree, but that figure has been more consistent, suggesting party control has less bearing on GOP voters’ views. Democrats are trying to make corruption an issue in the midterms, alleging Trump has used the office to his personal benefit. Fewer Americans — seven in 10 — see corruption as widespread in business.

Blindspot: Migrant arrests and MapQuest

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: The Trump administration said it arrested more than 2,000 migrants in a month-long operation targeting New York state.

What the Right isn’t reading: Downloads of MapQuest spiked after the company refused to change the name of Lake Ontario to “Lake America” on its platform, following Apple’s and Google’s acquiescences to President Trump’s request. 

Prediction markets have rapidly evolved from a niche novelty into a mainstream consumer product, with billions in daily volume across sports, elections, Fed decisions, and corporate earnings. Their growth is prompting new questions about how these markets should operate, be regulated, and fit into the broader financial landscape.

On Tuesday, September 15, Semafor’s Hedges and Bets: The Future of Prediction Markets will convene Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D., Chairman, House Agriculture Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, Rural Development; Rep. Joe Morelle, D-N.Y., Ranking Member, Committee on House Administration; and additional key leaders to unpack what’s next for this rapidly evolving industry.

Washington, DC | September 15 | Request Invite