Washington, DC

1. MAGA bailout?
2. Groundhog day in Iran
3. GOP shrugs at Iran strikes
4. Hegseth flexes power
5. Kalshi’s crackdown
6. Markey vs. Moulton
7. Union support rises

PDB: Ballroom construction continues

House votes on censuring GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards … John Ternus takes over at Apple … Russia pounds Kyiv with drone attacks

Trump may need to save Paxton

Republicans are counting on President Donald Trump’s cavalry to carry Ken Paxton to victory — but it hasn’t come yet. Ultimately, the GOP expects MAGA Inc. to help its Texas Senate nominee win with a significant spend this fall, according to multiple Republican sources, although even presidential super PAC donors aren’t clued in on when that will happen. Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, in a primary earlier this year, and Democrat James Talarico is outraising Paxton, making the political headache even more acute. Lone Star Liberty PAC launched a $15 million bid to aid Paxton on Monday, Politico reported, but Republicans say they need tens of millions more in a state where it costs more than $5 million a week to run a statewide ad campaign. A spokesman for MAGA Inc. said the group has nothing to share on its spending decisions.

— Burgess Everett

Trump digs in deeper on Iran

Trump is threatening retaliatory strikes against Iran after Tehran targeted US forces in Jordan and the UAE — a potential return to tit-for-tat military escalation that will further hobble his push to remove the US from the war. Trump insisted that Iran, after months of strikes by the US, is a “failed nation,” but warned that “doesn’t mean we won’t smack them.” For many White House officials and allies, the threats are indicative of the reality that administration officials privately acknowledge: There’s no good way out of the war. The potential for renewed military conflict also comes at a particularly precarious time for Trump, as high gas prices drag on Republicans’ midterm chances. Trump will host a gathering of oil executives at the White House later today as the administration looks for ways to lower the price at the pump.

— Shelby Talcott

Hill Republicans shrug off latest Iran strikes

Top Republicans are publicly shrugging off the resumption of military strikes on Iran as the war threatens to re-escalate. House Speaker Mike Johnson said, “If we wrap it up in the next 64 days, that’d be great as we go into the midterm elections. … Even if not, I think we can explain why that was necessary, why we had to complete the job.” Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Rep. Brian Mast, R-Fla., told Semafor Trump was still “well within his leeway” to prosecute the war without sign-off from the Hill. Rep. Tom Barrett, R-Mich. — who previously backed a measure to curtail the war, citing the need for Trump to come to Congress for approval — told Semafor “my position on [the war] has been the same consistently.” Meanwhile, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called the continued conflict an “absolute disaster for the American people.”

— Nicholas Wu

Army head leaves after Hegseth clashes

The Army secretary’s departure will help Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth consolidate power. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, a close ally of Vice President JD Vance, resigned after mounting tensions with Hegseth, leaving the key post without a Senate-confirmed leader. He had been expected to leave by the end of the year, but clashes with Hegseth on things like the ouster of top Army officers played a role in his decision to depart, a source familiar with the dynamic told Semafor. One of Driscoll’s underlings, Deputy Undersecretary Dave Fitzgerald, is also leaving, The Wall Street Journal reported. Hegseth has sought to tighten his control of the department, which wields outsize influence over foreign policy goals beyond the Iran war. Asked about Hegseth’s reported presidential ambitions, Trump said his defense chief is “doing a fantastic job, but it’s very early to talk about that.”

— Shelby Talcott and Morgan Chalfant

More Kalshi politician bans could be coming

Kalshi is conducting ongoing investigations into other political figures who may have conducted insider trading, after suspending four yesterday, a person familiar with the probes told Semafor. The prediction market said it would ban former Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., for life — a Kalshi first — after he used it to cash in on skipping the State of the Union. It also temporarily suspended Laurie Buckhout, a North Carolina Republican vying to unseat a moderate House Democrat, as well as Stephen Cloobeck and Ben Midgley, former gubernatorial candidates in California and Maine, respectively. All four were fined between $2,500 and $71,000. Rival Polymarket is prepared to take similar action, an official said, as the CFTC orchestrates its own crackdown. Donald Trump Jr.’s investment fund, 1789, is reportedly investing another $300 million in Polymarket for a total of $500 million.

— Eleanor Mueller

Markey, other Mass. Dems face primaries

Multiple Massachusetts Democrats are facing primary challengers today, led by Sen. Ed Markey, who warned voters that replacing him would mean losing a progressive champion and supporter of transgender rights in Washington. “We need universal childcare and Medicare for all,” Markey told supporters in Dorchester at a weekend rally with Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., accusing donors to Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., of trying to “steal this election.” Polls show Markey with a substantial lead. Democratic Reps. Stephen Lynch, Richard Neal, and Jake Auchincloss also face challengers, all of whom are running to their left. In the district currently held by Moulton, former White House staffer Dan Koh is the only Democrat running with endorsements from both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris; some progressives rallied behind Rep. Tram Nguyen in the race’s final stretch, seeing her as Koh’s strongest opponent.

— David Weigel

Unions gain ground in both parties

Union support in the US is at a modern-day high, with majorities of both political parties expressing positive views about organized labor, according to Gallup polling. Seventy-one percent of American adults approve of unions, matching a 2022 peak; the reading hasn’t been higher than that since the 1950s. Notably, 52% of Republicans said they approve of unions, marking the second time in the last 25 years that a majority of the party has held this view. However, partisans differ in how much influence they want labor to have. Seventy-three percent of Democrats want unions to wield more influence, compared to only 19% of Republicans. Still, the polling underscores unions’ growing political might, as candidates from both parties compete for their leaders’ and members’ backing. Trump deepened the GOP’s support among union voters, but working-class Americans remain skeptical of either party, a new Politico poll found.

Blindspot: Cybercrime and Apple Maps

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: The White House launched a pilot program in Texas designed to protect water systems from cyberattacks, Fox News reported.

What the Right isn’t reading: President Trump asked Apple to change Lake Ontario to “Lake America” in Apple Maps, mirroring Google’s change earlier this week.

White House

• President Trump said that renovations on the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool are “almost” completed. He also said communities opposed to data center construction will “end up being backwards and poor.”

• One line item in Trump’s various renovations: more than $250,000 for upgrades to the White House’s bowling alley. — Politico
• Exxon wasn’t invited to today’s meeting with oil executives at the White House. — Reuters

Congress

• The House is expected to approve a Senate-passed stopgap funding bill punting the government funding deadline past the midterms today, sending it to President Trump’s desk for his signature. Some conservatives are likely to oppose it over concerns about the legislative process.

Outside the Beltway

• California’s legislature sent a ban on “addictive” social media features for young users to Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is likely to sign it.

Campaigns

• At a rally in Detroit for Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers, Vice President JD Vance said there is “something about” Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed “that is very, very evil.”
• Later, Vance gave a speech to the Republican Jewish Coalition in which he emphasized he still sees Israel as a US ally.

Business

• Chinese automaker BYD inquired about taking over an old Stellantis plant in Toronto as the US-Canada trade war continues to embroil the auto industry. — Bloomberg
• North American Blue Energy Partners, which has the Trump administration’s backin