Washington, DC

1. Dems ride trade war
2. Warsh’s moment
3. Trump’s space day
4. Tight N.H. Senate race
5. Voting rights march
6. Putin’s plans

PDB: Trump crypto bank has backer in Abu Dhabi

Norway’s King Harald V dies … U Michigan releases consumer sentiment report … US military says has cleared all mines from Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes

Trade war hands Dems a campaign-trail gift

President Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada is handing a political gift to Democrats in a pivotal battleground state, Semafor’s Nicholas Wu reports from Michigan. Democratic candidates across the state are unifying against Trump’s 50% tariffs on an array of Canadian goods, hitching Republicans to a trade tit-for-tat against a trusted neighbor. Polls suggest the Canadian levies are unpopular; focusing on them is a helpful way for Democrats to change the subject from US-Israel policy, a topic that has bitterly split them in the state, as well as their own past divisions on tariffs and trade. The Democratic Party has long cleaved between pro-business factions and labor allies. Now, in a swing state that counts Canada as its top export destination, Democrats are focused on where they agree. “These tariffs are simply about [Trump’s] ego,” Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed told supporters Wednesday.

Warsh expected to skirt Fed independence

As Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh prepares to address the Kansas City Fed’s annual conference for the first time this morning, his critics hope he takes the opportunity to show his independence from Trump amid the president’s renewed attempt to oust central bank governor Lisa Cook. But if he goes there, it’ll be subtle. “It will be necessarily implicit,” but not “an explicit theme,” former Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles told Semafor. Quarles added that it’s “a fight that I don’t think would be wise to pick at this point,” given the Fed is already demonstrating its independence by not cutting rates. “He’s got to be just as neutral as possible, and it’s really got to be just almost passive,” KPMG’s Diane Swonk told Semafor: “The commitment to independence has got to be embedded,” including in how Warsh talks about inflation.

— Eleanor Mueller

Trump to give medals to crew of Artemis II

Trump is in Texas today to award the Artemis II crew the Congressional Space Medal of Honor after the four astronauts completed a mission around the Moon earlier this year. The successful mission represented a milestone for the US and the world. Trump will attend the event with NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, who flew with him from Washington earlier this week. The US president is also expected to make a call to the International Space Station after the ceremony. Trump’s two-day trip to Texas included a fundraiser last night that was aimed at helping Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, whom Trump endorsed during the primary over objections from GOP lawmakers. The president has been ramping up his domestic travel in recent weeks to try and boost Republicans as they fight to keep control of Congress, despite voter frustrations over the cost of living and the Iran war.

— Shelby Talcott

Poll: Pappas leads in N.H. Dem primary

Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., has a commanding lead in his bid for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire’s Senate race, according to numbers from his campaign, shared first with Semafor. That will likely settle some nerves among national Democrats rattled by this year’s primary polling — particularly after a University of New Hampshire poll placed Democrat Karishma Manzur just 13 points behind Pappas in the Sept. 8 primary. An internal survey of 422 Democratic primary voters conducted by GQR from Aug. 19-25 found Pappas currently earning 71% of Democratic primary votes compared to 15% for Manzur, with 14% undecided. Democrats aren’t sweating Pappas’ primary standing, but they anticipate a tight general election. The UNH poll showed former Republican Sen. John Sununu with a narrow lead over Pappas in the race, and polls with similarly tight results are circulating among Republicans.

— Burgess Everett

Battle over voting rights heats up

The battle over Trump’s efforts to exercise more control over US elections is reaching a fever pitch in Washington. Today, civil rights leaders, led by Rev. Al Sharpton, will hold a march in Washington to defend voting rights timed to the 63rd anniversary of the March on Washington. They’re trying to pressure lawmakers to respond to the Supreme Court’s decision this spring weakening the Voting Rights Act, but the event is also taking place as a new battle over Trump’s order restricting mail-in voting weaves through the courts. On Wednesday, on the heels of an interim Supreme Court ruling in Trump’s favor, a judge in Boston lifted a block on the Postal Service implementing Trump’s new mail-in ballot rules, even as she acknowledged his executive order is “likely unconstitutional.” And yesterday, after Democrat-led states and civil rights organizations filed fresh challenges, the same judge put Trump’s rules on a two-week hold.

NATO on edge over Russia threat

Is Russian leader Vladimir Putin preparing to test the resolve of NATO? Recent developments suggest that US and European officials are concerned. CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s unusual trip to Moscow is a signal that “Russia is getting more dangerous and the Trump administration wanted to warn it against escalating,” a former Biden national security official writes in The Atlantic. Ratcliffe urged the Russians to cut a deal to end the increasingly deadly Ukraine war before its effect on their economy worsens, per The New York Times, but so far Putin has shown only a willingness to dig in. Russia also views the US as weakened by the Iran war, underscored by a “beyond critical” shortage of US-made missile interceptors in Europe, as the AP reported yesterday. Still, Trump insists he isn’t worried about the Kremlin’s ambitions.

Debatable: Bond market confidence

The bond market’s recent jumps have raised a pressing question for investors: Is the US no longer a safe haven? US Treasurys have long been viewed as a secure place for investors, companies, and foreign governments to park their wealth. “A safe haven is a continuum, not a dichotomy,” said former Obama economic adviser Jason Furman. “We’re increasingly moving the wrong way on the continuum, becoming less safe by the day. That’s due to a combination of our high debt and erratic policymaking.” Rebecca Patterson, an investor and fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, insisted that the US “is still a safe haven” but that “what has changed is confidence it can remain that way.” Still, Jeff Sommer writes in The New York Times that “bonds continue to have many virtues,” even as recent fluctuations spook investors.

— Morgan Chalfant

Is the bipartisan push to get kids off social media less about child safety than it looks? Taylor Lorenz thinks so. On this week’s episode of Mixed Signals, the internet reporter and YouTuber joins Max and Ben to discuss where the actual line is between moral panic and legitimate concern, why she thinks the academic consensus on social media and youth mental health is being drowned out, and her at times surprising anti-anti-AI stance. Plus, how she logs 17 hours of screen time.

White House

• A preliminary investigation found that a close call between Marine One and a commercial jet taking off from Reagan National Airport may have been partially caused by the helicopter taking off from a different location due to construction at the White House.
• The Treasury Department is “drawing up a sweeping audit” of left-wing and progressive nonprofit groups. — NY Post

Congress

• Rep. Chuck Edwards, R-N.C., distributed a letter to lawmakers defending himself against sexual harassment allegations as he awaits a possible censure vote. — NOTUS

Outside the Beltway

• Canada has poached dozens of elite researchers from the US.
• President Trump will not attend a 9/11 memorial ceremony next month because he would not be allowed to give a speech. — NYT
• Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon said Justice Department election monitors sent to his state for last week’s primaries were “aggressive.” — NBC

Campaigns

• Former President Barack Obama will headline a New York fundraiser for House Democrats alongside Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries next month. — NYT

• President Trump’s pick for Wisconsin governor, Tom Tiffany, said he disagreed with Trump’s demand to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake America.”
• Senate Democratic candidate James Talarico is hosting a fundraiser in Los Angeles next month. — Politico