Washington, DC

1. Graham’s primary win
2. Vance vs. Cruz
3. Oil falls on Hormuz hopes
4. Dems’ midterms boost
5. Price pressures eyed
6. Deportation fight
7. UFO uncertainty

PDB: Trump sends Saudi nuclear deal for review

Trump appears on Glenn Beck’s radio show … Nvidia posts earnings … FT: State Dept. pauses immigrant visa applications worldwide

Graham’s primary win vindicates Trump

South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham won Tuesday’s primary for a full term, riding President Donald Trump’s endorsement to a narrow victory in Tuesday’s special election. “Our victory would not have been possible without you, and we are truly grateful,” Graham said of Trump, standing next to Gov. Henry McMaster at her victory party in Columbia. Graham, who’d never sought office before being appointed to replace her brother Lindsey in the Senate, was backed by most of the state’s GOP leadership, and her allies — including MAGA Inc., the president’s super PAC — outspent her primary competitor, Rep. Ralph Norman. “His policies are good,” Norman told his supporters, bemoaning Trump’s endorsement of Graham. “I never understood why he got in this race. It is what it is.” In Oklahoma, the Trump-endorsed candidate for governor, Mike Mazzei, beat Attorney General Gentner Drummond, who had criticized the president’s trade policies.

— David Weigel

Vance supporters dismiss Cruz 2028 talk

Vice President JD Vance’s allies are brushing off Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s declaration that Republicans have not yet coalesced around a potential Vance candidacy. Cruz recently argued that the party will have “a full discussion about who we are and what we believe in” and said he will “certainly be part of the discussion.” In response, one Vance supporter told Semafor: “The more, the merrier. We encourage them to split the single-digit anti-JD vote among all the dinosaurs of the Republican Party, none of whom will win a single primary.” Meanwhile, a Trump adviser agreed that there “will be a full discussion” on what the GOP stands for, but dismissed Cruz’s role in it: “Unfortunately for [Cruz], has-beens polling at 1% won’t be part of that conversation.” The back-and-forth is an early glimpse into the looming debate over who will succeed Trump and how his movement will evolve.

— Shelby Talcott

Iran, Oman make headway on Hormuz

Oil prices eased as Iran and Oman appeared to make headway in partially reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan, too, said it had made “significant progress” in ending the US-Israel war against Iran, helping to push benchmark crude down to about $86 a barrel. Still, Tehran insisted the temporary, joint shipping corridor under discussion with Muscat did not represent a full reopening of the key global transit route; that, Iranian officials insisted, would only happen when they were satisfied the war with the US and Israel had concluded and a naval blockade on Iran’s oil exports had ended. Regardless, the months of disruptions mean the effects of the war will be felt well into next year, the Red Cross warned.

Dems get legal boost on midterm spending

Democrats got some good news when the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that political parties and joint fundraising committees do not qualify for the candidate rate for political spending, which is lower than what outside groups have to pay. If the ruling stands — still a big “if” — it would benefit Democrats. Democratic candidates are often outraising Republicans in key races, and those candidates would receive more efficient ad spending rates than political parties. Republicans will appeal to the Supreme Court; National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez said, “This is the first word, not the last.” But Democrats are celebrating the decision, which blunts some of the Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this year allowing more coordinated spending between parties and candidates. The Democratic House and Senate campaign arms said candidate-funded campaigns remain “a fundamental advantage in the midterms.”

— Burgess Everett

Fed gets more inflation intel

As the midterm elections inch closer, high costs continue to weigh on consumers — and that’s bad news for Republicans trying to tell a positive tale of the economy under Trump. The Federal Reserve will get a peek at its preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, this morning. It’s expected to show headline inflation easing slightly but remaining far above the Fed’s 2% target. The data point will be an important factor when central bankers meet next month and decide whether to raise interest rates, as the Iran war and tariffs fuel ongoing economic disruption. The Boston Fed president recently called for raising rates “soon” in the absence of “evidence of sustained inflation progress.” Consumer confidence declined this month, according to The Conference Board. Prices are also weighing on the housing market, driving down new home sales to a six-month low in July.

Third-country deportation ruling eyed

Lawyers are bracing for a ruling from the First Circuit Court of Appeals that could reshape the Trump administration’s third-country deportation program, just as the administration pushes ahead with a new deal to send migrants to Liberia. The appeals court heard oral arguments in D.V.D. v. DHS in May, and a decision is expected imminently, attorneys involved in the case told Semafor. They’re challenging the Department of Homeland Security’s practice of expelling migrants to countries other than their own without notice or a chance to contest the deportation. “The government is violating the law with every third-country [deportation] it conducts,” said Trina Realmuto, lead counsel for the plaintiffs at the National Immigration Litigation Alliance. “All of these illegal aliens received due process,” a DHS spokesperson said. “The Trump administration is utilizing all lawful options to carry out the largest deportation operation in history, just as President Trump promised.”

— Adrian Elimian

Americans’ evolving views on UFOs

Americans are more likely to believe that UFOs have an earthly explanation than to think they are spaceships from another planet, according to new polling from Gallup. Forty-nine percent of US adults believe sightings of UFOs are tied back to human activity or natural phenomena — fewer than in 2019, when 60% said the same. But in that time, the percentage who believe at least some UFOs are alien spacecraft (37%) hasn’t risen much; more Americans have just become unsure. The Trump administration has been releasing Pentagon files on UFOs, which could be adding to that uncertainty. Most Americans are, at least, convinced that Washington is hiding something: Nearly eight in 10 believe the US government knows more about UFOs than it has told the public.

On Wednesday, September 16, Jaime Diaz-Granados, Deputy CEO, American Psychological Association, will join us for the Youth Wellbeing Forum: Building Resilient Generations. As young people are challenged by rising rates of loneliness, anxiety, and depression, we are bringing together experts across technology, healthcare, and policy to examine solutions that can build lasting resilience. Semafor editors will sit down with Rep. Suzanne Bonamici, D-Ore.; Rep. Kevin Kiley, I-Calif.; Jaymes Black, CEO, The Trevor Project; Dr. Jon Kole, Medical Director and Senior Director of Psychiatry, Headspace; Nicole Hockley, Co-Founder & CEO, Sandy Hook Promise; and more to explore how to build lasting resilience for the next generation.

Washington, DC | September 16 | Request Invite

Blindspot: IRGC and the White House lawn

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: The State Department is offering up to $10 million for information on the leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 

What the Right isn’t reading: President Trump is reshaping the slope of the White House’s South Lawn as part of his new helipad project, which is expected to cost $13 million, The Washington Post reported.

White House

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s purge of top military brass has left a significant vacuum in wartime. — NYT
• The Kennedy Center’s revenue tanked after President Trump’s name was added to the building. — WaPo
• Trump shared a post suggesting he’d like to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake America.”

Congress

• Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., publicly demanded Rep. Mike Collins, a Republican challenging him for his Senate seat, to cooperate with an ongoing House Ethics Committee probe.
• Reps. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., and Wesley Bell, D-Mo., all pro-Israel voices, scored spots on the House Foreign Affairs Committee as their party writ large wrestles with its stance on Israel. — Axios