Good morning. In focus today, we’re tracking the never-ending trade file and what Canadian retaliation to U.S. tariffs could look like. Plus, other files to know for this week.

Expected: U.S. President Donald Trump is once again talking about making Canada a “51st state” after Ottawa walked away from a trade deal between the two countries.

The unexpected: Canada rejected a last-minute demand that Netflix and other U.S. streaming giants need not promote Canadian culture.

Labour: Unifor and General Motors have agreed on tentative labour contracts for more than 4,600 auto workers amid headwinds for the auto sector owing, in part, to U.S. tariffs.

Hi, today you’ve got business reporter Pippa Norman, filling in for Chris this week, alongside fellow biz reporter, Jameson Berkow. These are the five files we think are worth watching this week:

THE NEVER-ENDING TRADE FILE: To recap, Ottawa backed out of trade talks with the U.S. just before Trump’s latest round of tariffs of 50-per-cent on US$20-billion of Canadian exports came into effect on Saturday.

The agreement collapsed less than an hour before the deadline. Canada was preparing to meet in the middle on tariffs and concede on several other trade demands in exchange for Trump lowering his existing tariffs and not imposing the new ones. But Prime Minister Mark Carney ultimately backed out of the prospective deal, saying that the U.S. changed its terms at the eleventh hour. The rest of the country stood mostly united behind him.

The punitive new levies target a number of Canadian goods, including electronics, alcohol, dairy and numerous other products. All that to say, the latest on the seemingly endless trade file is not looking good for Canadian business.

Dennis Darby, CEO of industry group Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, says he’s worried about companies losing confidence in making investment decisions, as the Prime Minister’s language around the trade war suggests “he is setting up for the long haul.”

TARIFF RETALIATION AND RECALIBRATION: The date to keep in mind now is Sept. 8, when Carney says Canada’s retaliatory measures will come into effect. Ottawa is still developing its target list for retaliation, but one thing is certain: Counter-tariffs on U.S. goods will raise prices for those products in Canada.

Speaking to reporters on Saturday, Carney said, “You are at war when you get attacked. We got attacked.” He added, “We’ll respond – we are going to focus on what we can control. We are going to build.”

What that building looks like is not yet clear, adding to the stress bearing down on the Canadian business community. The Prime Minister is scheduled to hold a news conference today with Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette to announce “investments to defend our waters and strengthen our trade routes,” according to his itinerary.

Pippa also reported on Canada’s defence relationship with the U.S., and how that may be affected by the continuing trade war. Experts told her the likelihood of major defence procurements factoring into punitive measures taken by either side is growing.

Keep reading

• Opinion: Mark Carney was right to call Donald Trump’s bluff, Tony Keller writes.
• Elbows up: Many Canadian are feeling ready to participate in a full-on trade war.
• More talk: Experts call for improved communications for Canadian leaders, after B.C. Premier David Eby couldn’t attend a meeting because of poor cell service.

BANK EARNINGS BONANZA: Expectations for big profits from Canada’s biggest banks are about as high as Trump’s opinion of himself.

The country’s largest lenders will report third-quarter results this week, starting with Scotia and BMO on Tuesday. National Bank results drop Wednesday and RBC, TD and CIBC will be the final three into the fray on Thursday.

Analysts estimate a 15-per-cent bump in profits compared to the same three-month period in 2025, according to Globe banking reporter Stefanie Marotta. And that is after Canadian bank stocks have already surged 24 per cent so far this year, outperforming both the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index and a more directly comparable list of their U.S. counterparts.

Carney can claim some credit for their windfall, as one analyst even cited Ottawa’s efforts to “revive investor sentiment toward Canada through a business-friendly agenda.” Banks “should be major beneficiaries” of next month’s Canada Investment Summit as well, the analyst said.

ECONOMIC POLICY: Newly minted Fed chair Kevin Warsh will be delivering his first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday to a group of powerful central bankers, most of whom will likely be dressed up like extras in a spaghetti Western film.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has hosted its annual economic symposium in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park since the early 1980s. Because of the beautiful setting and the strict limit to the guest list, it has long been considered one of the most exclusive and important global economic events of the year.

Fed chairs of the past have generally used their keynotes to deliver major announcements. Although in the case of Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut, he has quickly become known for saying next to nothing, so expectations for him to deliver a blustery barnburner are relatively low.

Canadians can also expect some major economic news that same day, regardless of what Warsh says. Second-quarter GDP is due out Friday morning and after the past two quarters have shown a contraction (what some economists consider a “technical recession ”) hopes are high for a rebound.

TUITION TALK: This is the week parents start fretting about back-to-school. Now, Jameson’s kids are still young enough that his biggest concern is getting the right Spiderman-themed backpack and restocking a depleted pencil crayon supply.

But that doesn’t mean he’s not also thinking about potentially smart ways to save for their higher education (if university is even still a thing by the time they graduate high school) or fantasizing about what he could do with their RESP funds if they decide against the post-secondary route.

As long as they learn how to handle their own