What matters in U.S. and global markets today

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance & Markets

A relatively quiet week ahead kicks off today in the shadow of the first drop in U.S. retail sales in nine months last Friday, teeing up second-quarter results from Home Depot, Target and Walmart later in the week, another gauge of U.S. consumer spending.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast, where we discuss the retail sales miss and more.

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Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more U.S. market news, click here. Please send any feedback to morningbid@thomsonreuters.com.

 

Today's Market Minute

  • Ahead of what could be one of the biggest IPOs on record, Anthropic is projecting 2028 revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion, according to two people familiar with the company's financials.
  • Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed over the weekend, data showed on Monday, following attacks on tankers, while U.S.-Iran talks stalled.
  • After the U.S. vowed more economic pressure on Iran late last week, this Reuters piece breaks down some of the options available to U.S. President Donald Trump.
  • From AI adoption on the Mississippi River to driverless trucks on highways, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire breaks down how automation is rewiring U.S. transport - and how it could impact energy markets.
  • As gold rises again amid a confluence of economic and political dynamics, one cohort in particular is getting in on the action, explains ROI Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever.
 

Retail risk

The drop in July sales was exaggerated by a retreat in oil prices - since reversed - and there was a quirk from Amazon bringing its "Prime Day" discount day forward to June this year.

But the reading chimes with a drop in consumer confidence in the University of Michigan's latest survey and has combined with last week's subdued inflation reports to rein in Federal Reserve rate hike expectations for September.

The reheating of oil prices in recent weeks amid the Iran war standoff might shift some of that picture before the Fed meets next month, but the rate relief for now has been enough to keep Wall Street stock indexes pushing to record highs.

With no breakthrough on the Iran impasse over the weekend, President Donald Trump told Americans that slightly more expensive gas was a price worth paying for seeing the conflict out.

As to the Fed story, we're due to get minutes of July's split policy meeting on Wednesday, and an industrial production number tomorrow.

Elsewhere, Japan's 10-year government borrowing rates hit a three-decade high on Monday, even as Japanese GDP came in well below forecasts with an annualized rise of 1.1% in the second quarter.

While sputtering growth, due in part to energy prices, may complicate Bank of Japan rate rise plans, the yen held firm on Monday as a broadly weaker dollar dominated on the Fed view.

 
 

Today's key chart  

 

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

China's economy lost momentum at the start of the second half, with industrial output and retail sales slowing as extreme weather disruptions and persistently weak domestic demand renew pressure on policymakers to step up stimulus.

Getting China's roughly 1.4-billion-strong population spending again will not be easy while the country's property sector remains in a slump, with new home prices in July down 3.2% from a year earlier and 0.1% from June.

 

Today's events to watch

  • New York Fed manufacturing survey for August (8:30 a.m. EDT)
  • Canada July CPI (8:30 a.m. EDT)
 

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