Also: The mounting case for US manufacturing investment; Our latest Global Fund Performance Report; US VC fundraising and returns updates...
August 8, 2026  |  Log in   |  Read online   |  Manage your subscription  
PitchBook, a Morningstar company
The Research Pitch
Presented by Formidium
Sponsored by Formidium

Fund performance: Our latest Global Fund Performance Report is now available. Get it here.

July markets, mapped: Our Global Markets Snapshot breaks down a month of returns across dozens of indexes and sectors. Read it here.

Saudi slowdown: VC deal value cratered 81% year-over-year in H1. But nearly $2.5 billion in open funds promises recovery if regional conflict subsides. Access our Saudi Arabia Private Capital Report, written in partnership with Saudi Venture Capital.

Europe spotlight: Dive in with reports on European IPOs, UK private markets, and Southern Europe.

Meta and OpenAI breaches are a buying signal for AI security
Dimitri Zabelin.jpg
By Dimitri Zabelin
Senior Research Analyst, AI and Cybersecurity

Meta is the latest firm to announce that one of its models broke out of its digital sandbox and breached another organization’s system. Earlier in July, OpenAI’s model escaped from its environment and hacked Hugging Face. We expect these kinds of autonomous intrusions to turbocharge VC and PE funding for AI-native cybersecurity startups.

Security researchers had long warned about this type of vulnerability, and then it happened: An AI system broke into another company’s servers entirely on its own.

During an internal test, OpenAI’s AI agents found a flaw that let them escape their test environment, then used stolen credentials to tap into Hugging Face’s servers. Over four and a half days, the AI took more than 17,000 actions, running a full hacking operation with no human directing each step.

What matters isn’t how the break-in happened, but what the AI chose to target: not the AI model itself, but the data feeding into it.

To shed more light on the incident, we spoke with Hardshell founder Andrew Schoka about exactly what happened and the magnitude of the breach.

“Before founding Hardshell, I spent seven years in offensive cyberoperations for the US government, and what this agent did in four and a half days is the kind of campaign I would previously have attributed to a nation-state team with months or even years of planning behind it,” he said.

The sense of urgency among enterprises to not only secure their models but also the data feeding generalized, and specialized LLMs will almost certainly grow.

We expect this incident to accelerate venture investment in companies protecting AI’s data, pipelines, and automated defenses—a trend already underway. AI-focused cybersecurity startups made up over half of all global cybersecurity VC deals by count in 2025, the highest share on record.

Money is flowing to startups protecting AI data and models, including Hardshell, Prompt Security, and Lakera. In automated threat response, players include 7AI, Tenex.AI, Vectra AI, and Cracken; and in AI security testing, ZioSec and Revel8.

OpenAI expects more incidents like this—and the data layer is likely where the next one starts. Read the full breakdown in our analyst note.

A MESSAGE FROM FORMIDIUM
Your fund administrator should not control your exit

Transitions between fund administrators fail in predictable ways. Formidium works with managers on both sides of these moves, and the same mistakes surface again and again: data requested too late, accounting logic that lives in people rather than systems, parallel operations with no end date.

This piece catalogs the seven mistakes that turn a manageable transition into the ordeal the industry warns about, and explains why AI agents and owned accounting architecture are making those mistakes avoidable. For managers weighing a move, it is a practical map of where transitions actually break

See the seven mistakes that derail fund administrator transitions.

Formidium 8/8 Image

The case for US manufacturing investment keeps building
jonathan-geurkink.jpg
By Jonathan Geurkink
Senior Research Analyst, Mobility Tech and Supply Chain Tech

The structural bet on American manufacturing is getting stronger despite a cautious first half for dealmaking. Surging manufacturing investment commitments, backed by reshoring initiatives, permanent 100% bonus depreciation and sustained policy support for defense-adjacent and dual-use production has created what many investors see as the most favorable capital investment backdrop for the sector since the early 2000s.

The clearest signal of where that capital is headed: reports that Jeff Bezos is in early talks to raise a $100 billion “manufacturing transformation vehicle” aimed at buying up manufacturing companies and infusing them with AI-driven automation.

It’s a striking indicator of how central physical AI has become to the reshoring conversation, and it points to where the next wave of opportunity is concentrated. Machinery and computer equipment have already captured over a fifth of all H1 2026 deal value, lifted by AI infrastructure demand.

Global manufacturing PE deal activity newsletter asset@2x.png

That said, the near-term numbers tell a more cautious story.

US manufacturing PE deal value fell to $71.1 billion in the first half of 2026, the weakest stretch since Q2 2020, as tariff uncertainty and the outbreak of the Iran war rattled investors following 2025’s 36.5% surge to $273.1 billion. Segment performance has been uneven—chemicals deal value dropped from a decade-high $45 billion in 2025 to just $11.1 billion year-to-date—but dealmakers are already positioning for a second-half rebound as the underlying investment case continues to strengthen.

Read our full Manufacturing Launch Report for a segment-by-segment breakdown of where the reshoring boom is real and where it is still borrowed momentum.

MARKET UPDATES

US VC Fundraising and Returns Report

VC’s one-year horizon IRR hit 17.1% in Q4 2025, nearly triple private capital’s 6.2%, but that figure is a mirage built on unrealized markups, not cash reaching LPs. NAV grew 21.6%, while distribution yield sat well below its historical average.

Strip out the AI-driven paper gains concentrated in a handful of mega-funds, and the median 2025 vintage IRR is -2%, down from 17.4% just two years prior.

Fundraising tells the same story from a different angle. Billion-dollar-plus funds now soak up 68.3% of every dollar raised, and just 12 firms account for nearly three-quarters of total commitments.

Behind both trends sits the same broken mechanic of the market. The market is consolidati