Welcome to The Data Dive, a new subscriber-exclusive newsletter on the most consequential elections of the midterms. Each Tuesday morning, I’ll focus on the numbers, trends and data shaping the biggest stories heading into Election Day. I’ll also dig into the 2026 battlegrounds that will determine control of Congress — one district, one county, one city and maybe even one precinct at a time. In this edition, I’m zeroing in on the crucial Democratic primary for Senate in must-win Michigan. Let’s dive in.

A victory by Abdul El-Sayed over Rep. Haley Stevens in tonight’s increasingly hostile Democratic primary for Senate in Michigan would mark a major advance for the party's insurgent left wing. But it would also be the culmination of mounting indicators over the years that primary voters here are interested in the type of progressive populism El-Sayed has espoused.

Two high-profile races in the state offer clues to what could be El-Sayed’s path to victory.

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Michigan is where in 2016 Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has been championing El-Sayed’s candidacy, pulled off his biggest upset over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He defeated her by less than a point in the presidential primary.

Subscribe to keep reading The Data Dive, including Steve Kornacki’s full analysis of the counties, coalitions and past elections that could determine tonight’s Michigan Senate primary.