Hello Power Up readers,
Well, here we are again.
Oil prices tumbled on Monday after President Donald Trump held off a major attack on Iran over the weekend, choosing instead to give diplomacy another shot. The hope is that talks can break the deadlock over Tehran's nuclear programme and, crucially, get oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again.
Trump said on Sunday that talks with Iran would take place on Monday, although Iran's foreign ministry said no meetings with Washington were on the calendar. What we do know is that Iran and Oman have been holding advanced discussions on a possible new shipping route through Hormuz. But, in true Middle East diplomatic fashion, Iranian officials insist those talks have "no link" to whether the strait itself is opened or closed.
In other words, things are clear as mud.
But the real issue to watch here isn't official statements. It's tanker traffic. And for now, movement through the world's most important oil chokepoint remains a trickle, with several tankers hit in the Hormuz area over recent days. Gulf states are increasingly desperate to see oil and gas exports return to normal and, as we noted last week, many would rather live with an Iranian-managed Strait of Hormuz than an empty one.
That ongoing disruption continues to squeeze global oil and fuel supplies, with one big winner emerging from the chaos: refiners. Sky-high refining margins have put rocket boosters under Big Oil's second-quarter earnings and revived a business that many investors had been quietly writing off. Tightening fuel markets suggest refiners could continue generating unusually healthy returns for several years.
But before anyone starts getting used to this new golden age for refining, it's worth remembering that longer-term shifts in energy consumption are still moving against the sector. More on that below.
Here are a few more headlines:
